if you look to win big during your lifetime you have to play trouble hands well.

and against a player that never reraises and now suddenly does you auto fold all hands except aces. period.

rare to get good pot odds to set mine against a reraise .

if you cant that means you have other big leaks in your game that correspond to these situations like not being able to fold big flushes and full houses against a rock.

Fold to 3 bet. Not getting odds to set mine. Don't pay off the ******* nits.

I'm not "keeping putting people on precisely one hand".

I'm constructing a range for my opponents based on evidence gathered by observation and informed by my knowledge of poker logic and human psychology.

The fact the range thus constructed is sometimes absurdly tight is the fault of the passive villain, not my hand reading skills.

There are guys that have are weighted to AA 100% with 3! in my games. How do I know this?

Because they routinely flat KK, even in position, even ahead of an open with multiple callers.

There are players that simply won't reraise preflop with anything except AA. They want to be able to get away from their hand in case any overcards come and aren't confident in their hand reading ability. They are very easy to play against. You just fold everything when they 3! unless you're super deep and get odds.


That being said once these players do 3! and it will always be aces you can also assume they are never folding. That 3! is a giant sign that says "i'm never folding" except under extreme circumstances like 4 to a flush they don't carry.

So if you get odds to nutmine with hand like j10s or any pocket pair then go for it. Be prepared to fold your set/two pair if you see an ace though.

OP, do you have at least 40-50 hours vs V to know he does this with AA/KK exclusively?

That's the real question here.

came for the hand history stayed for the peen-waving contest and half-a$$ theory discussion.

3/10 wouldn't recommend and now dumber for having done it.

the very obvious theory point that the soul readers have neglected is that folding incorrectly is a much bigger error than stacking off KK v AA. when you fold incorrectly you lose the pot and your opponent's stack; when you fold correctly you only preserve yours, which is inherently less valuable. given the massive equity advantage KK has against every non AA hand, if you are ever wrong then your play is a massive leak.

So on the turn, were you willing to bet $1120 (pot on turn + effective stack) that he has exactly AA? bc for those people saying to fold turn, that's essentially what you're doing.

everyone should be skeptical of one's own ability to accurately range their opponents on exactly the nuts with 100% accuracy. I've correctly folded KK pre and middle set on a dry flop, but those situations are so rare as to be memorable and your margin for error is 0. it makes for a great scene in a movie and a nice story, but winning poker actually has very little to do with making these kinds of reads.

Congratulations! if what you said is actually correct and the real frequency was 4 times in a year (not 4 times in 19 months or 4 times in 3 years, which sounds more reasonable to me) then you saved yourself ~200BB (100 PTBB) last year or about 50c/playing hour in a $5 BB game. If your win rate at 5/5 is 5.1 PTBB/hr then it only would have been 5.034 if you had gotten it in with KK in those 4 spots.

In other words, your decision to fold these spots is almost irrelevant to your bottom line. I guarantee there are about 10 other areas that would make more than a 0.06 PTBB/hr difference to your win rate if you addressed them. Figuring out when to fold KK against AA just doesn't matter, and if you're wrong it's way worse for your bottom line than if you're right.

I couldn't disagree more. If this guy 3 bet AA 100% of the time he has it and 3 bets QQ 5% of the times he has it, and 3 bets nothing else (besides the other KK which I'm ignoring).....you cant win by playing for stacks with KK. Its that simple. You are going to lose.

ALso, those of us saying to fold KK when you are THAT sure the guy has AA 95% of the time, are not talking about folding the turn. We are talking about folding the flop...or possibly even preflop depending on stack sizes.

pre flop for me and ive done it many times over my life and am way ahead by doing just that.

and some are forgetting the times that if he did have qq and an ace comes and he cont. bets you fold the winner. and all the times you are right and dont win anything more but go broke when you are wrong.

just say you average 40 bb bets a night playing live. and you go off for 300 bb to the aces. thats a whole weeks work down the drain.

mike starr knows more than most here so listen to him.

Finally someone articulated my point in a much better way than I ever could. Thank you.

You don't get dealt KK often enough to immediately fear that you're up against AA when 3-bet by anybody including nits and passives. This is live poker. Nits get bored folding every hand that they could see QQ after three hours and decide that you are an aggressive player and it would be nice to 3-bet you.

Folding KK to this action and to this player is a mistake. It doesn't matter whether in this instance he had AA or not. Anyway, I'm curious now. Did OP stack off and get shown Aces? Did OP fold and get shown QQ? Did OP fail to get it in pre and let opponent make a weird straight+?

I guess you're happy with 40bb a night when you had an opportunity to win 180bb here. This is probably a glass half-full vs. glass half-empty scenario. You will always believe 40bb a night is better off than going for 180bb with the potential to lose 300bb. I don't care enough about losing 300bb to AA when he has it to go after the 180bb. In some senses, that's the essence of poker too: do you want to go after 180bb and risk 300bb the 4.5% of the time one out of the other 9 players behind you is dealt AA when you're dealt KK, or do you want to play it uber-safe and fold pre/on the flop? I will always believe my win rate is what it is because I'm willing to 4-bet gii with KK here, and you will always believe your win rate is what it is because you're willing to fold KK here.

I’m gonna go ahead and assume that both of your WR’s have a lot more to do with 99.5% of all other poker related situations and additionally that this conversation is repeatedly beating the proverbial dead horse.

RottPhiler and paradroid12 - I hope your hand reading skills are better than your reading skills. You've both slagged my advice off and yet, if you look at my first post ITT, I suggest hero should call river as played.