Villain: Several buy-ins in (though note not angry as if he understand this happens sometimes) - has not been spewy as a result. LAP, 900
Hero: Very winning image at table - been constantly chipping up. TAG image. 1600.

Hero from MP to 20. Folds to Villain in BB to 100 (note I have never seen him even once 3 bet, let alone closing the action - I simply don’t even think he would do this with QQ, AK and maybe not even KK - Villain is loose - floats openly etc, but not aggressive)

Flop 862r, Villain 120, Hero Calls
Turn 6o, Villain 240, Hero Calls
River 9o, Villain ships for 440.

Needless to say - took this line to not fold out any bluffs - but what if I think he’s truly weighted 95%+ here to AA?

once you call the turn, you just can't fold the river for that price. if you were going to fold, the turn was the place.

as played, call. and if he has AA, try to be mindful of any sizing tells that would let you get away next time.

To that point - he’s clearly sizing to get three streets/get his whole stack in..

Yep never folding here, you kept his range wide pre by flatting and let him barrel off overpairs on the cleanest board for you, snappity snap

Nothing is more important in live poker than your reads. If you dont believe this guy will 3 bet with anything but AA, and you are 95% sure he has AA....then just set mine with the KK and fold the flop when you miss. There's no way in hell I would call this guy down if I was that sure...and Yes, I have set mined with KK like this before and been shown AA when I folded the rag flop.

I fold KK pre to guys who 3bet once every 2 sessions I play with them. I'm right everytime

Because i've seen them flat call KK (They won't put money in until there's no ace on the flop)


Stop paying nits off man. Tired of them coming back.

None of this GTO cringe works for live. Just exploit nits/lags/passive stations in their own respective way. By overfolding to nits, over calling to lags and thin value betting passives.(but folding to their aggression)

What information are you using to decide his 3bet range? How many hours have you played with him?

I wouldnt assign someone an overly tight 3 bet range at those stakes without a VERY strong read built over many hours of play.

This is ++++++

You would think $2/5 would be an okay game to use our full arsenal of GTO play but I think there are still too many nits/LAGs/LPs. Probably need to move up to at least $5/10 to assume it's usable against most players. At $1/2,$1/3, $2/5, it's probably best to just play exploitatively against most players.

Just fold turn if his range at that point is KK+. Now, I wouldn't be convinced of that until 240 goes in, so call pre+flop+give up. This is all based on the info you provided of course which seems to indicate he may only have only KKAA as soon as preflop.

You are allowed to fold KK against players who you know have AA.

Nitty or very passive players 3betting out of the blinds typically have very tight ranges. These are the spots I'm most confident putting opponents on KK+ and playing accordingly. I'd fold pre or fold the flop if I set mined and missed.

As played to river I think you have to call though. If you were certain he had KK+ you would have folded earlier so I don't think you were sure of your read at the time.

Wow. Just wow.

4-bet and gii if 5-bet pre. It's only 180bb effective. SMH at set-mining with KK. The reality is that it doesn't matter if villain has AA. 180bb is not deep enough to matter. Over time you make money by gii pre with KK for 180bb effective irrespective of villain's holdings. And conversely, over time you lose money by set-mining with KK for 180bb irrespective of villain's holdings. Stop trying to soul-read people for 180bb effective and just play your KK.

Villain could just as easily have QQ. He's lost a few buyins. He may be card dead and running bad, and view TT+ as an opportunity to make some money back. Assuming he only has AA here is too nitty/mubsy. You haven't narrowed down villain's range enough by capping your range and flatting the 3-bet. As played, mandatory stack off. If you cannot do this, especially against the described villain, it's time to rack up and leave.

There are some people who absolutely wont reraise preflop without AA. If you know who they are, then your entire post is nonsense. If you dont know who they are because you're always looking at your phone when you're not in the hand then by all means....just stick your money in and whatever happen happens....but its your loss for not paying attention.

You and I play very different games. Let's agree to disagree. Keep playing your way, and keep set-mining with KK and keep folding the flop when you miss 7 times out of 8.

I folded KK to 3bets 4 times last year. Literally everytime villain showed his hand after I mucked face down. 4 different nitty/passive guys. For some reason they feel the need to demonstrate they only 3bet KK+ when everyone knows already lol!

Keep putting people on precisely one hand when you are 3-bet, or 6 combos out of 1326 possible combos. Yes, these guys must only 3-bet 0.45% of the time. They must be robots who are not prone to boredom, "gee, I'm feeling lucky right now because I felt a leprechaun silently sit on my shoulder", tilt, getting ready to go home, text from angry wife, etc. 5-bet is a different story.

If he's truly weighted to 95%+ AA here, then he's weighted enough to AA earlier in the hand such that we should have folded then.

Sorry if I was being snarky and failed to highlight the point I wanted to make. Let's say even if they are extremely nitty/extremely passive players (which is the most you can say about any particular player), if you play a game where you never fold KK for 180bb effective, that game is robust enough to handle the times you run into AA and lose 180bb. If however, you try to soul-read and are looking to find a fold when such people 3-bet you and proudly pat yourself on the back for being the best poker player ever capable of incredible out-of-this-world reads, then your game is not math-based and your game is therefore not robust enough to handle much.

LOL. I have a crazy notion for you.....can you imagine a player who plays a math based game AND has really good reads? I wonder what kind of a player that guy could be?

Personally, I play a very read based and massively exploitive game while trying to get better at the math side of things which Ive improved on quite a bit in the past 1500 or so hours.

Why in the world would you say "Oh well, the guy almost has to have AA here but whatever, its only 180BBs"? If he has AA 95% of the time and QQ 5% of the time, you lose a lot of money. If your reads arent very good, then your math isnt going to bail you out.

You're right, but getting 3-bet by a passive player who as described has lost a few buyins and is not angry about it, is not enough for you to say he has AA 95% and QQ 5% of the time. Villains who only 3-bet with AA and nothing else also are the kind who never play 5/5. I'm questioning your read to immediately weight him to 95% AA when you get 3-bet. Of course you could certainly be right, but if you're not right 100% of the time, then you're playing KK wrong. Are you right 100% of the time with your reads? More importantly, is OP right 100% of the time with their reads?

Of course, you find out by 4-betting and if you get 5-bet you can fold. However 180bb effective stacks with a 20bb 3-bet, means that you're 4-betting to at least 60bb and therefore investing a 3rd of your stack, which means you can't fold to a 5-bet shove. Just call it off pre if 5-bet.

KK is a strong made hand. Made hands lose value when more cards come. Why are you letting QQ-, AK, etc., see a cheap flop? Mandatory 4-bet pre. I'm mandatorily calling a 5-bet shove pre, but you could find a fold there.

Fold preflop if you are sure he is weighted that much to AA.

Alternatively, if you think you can get his whole stack if a K flops, set mine, like Mike said. Odds aren't great for setmining though. I'd have to KNOW he goes broke here every time.

I’m with Mike here too Rott. If you’re against such a passive player you’re definitely not winning money long term by getting it in against them in this spot when their 3!% is less than 1%.
This is also a good example of how your 3x rigid raising ratio is flawed. If you’re 4!ing here, there’s really no reason to go 60bb. Raising to 45-50bbs would tell you the exact same thing and you’d be able to fold easier to the 5! instead of feeling so committed.

This. If you know for a fact he literally only has AA, then by all means act accordingly, but based on the OP, I'm not too convinced myself. If you are, then just fold, but I wouldn't wanna make a habit out of it. Playing exploitative poker is one thing, but you should be careful with reads this specific.

If you are so confident of your read, just fold preflop. KK is not doing well against a range of KK+.

I really don't think you should be so confident of that read unless you've played *multiple* sessions with him. It's entirely possible this is the first time he's picked up QQ+/AK this session and given your passive line it's certainly plausible he'd push it in with QQ.

Putting someone on solely KK+ requires a very strong read (even my local OMC will occasionally 3-bet QQ), and if you're truly that confident just fold pre.

Its not my read. Its OPs read, but I also know a few guys who only 3 bet with AA/KK.

OP doesn't have to be 100% right with his read. Even if the guy is passive enough to only 3 bet AA-QQ and will do it with equal frequency, hes still going to fold QQ to a 4 bet a lot more often than he will AA (obviously)....so we still lose by 4 betting.

You cant play KK against mega passive players the same way you would against the field. I mean, if you want to lose 180BBs to this guy and call it a cooler when everyone else in the poker room probably knew he had AA, then go for it.

Technically, you're only losing 108BBs to him if you get all in since you will win 20% of the time. That's my math game talking.

Villain who doesn't 3B....but now does so in the BB against one player.