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KK on a 3-flush board KK on a 3-flush board

11-13-2014 , 11:20 AM
Hi all,

Played a hand recently that left me wondering.

Setting:
2/5 NL with $500 max BI.

H OTB - Earlier had lost a big pot w/boat vs quad 3s (33T3X board) to another loose player (now in the BB) and H has now rebuilt stack to $740. V1 had seen this hand and played another hand later on where he RR me big on a A-T-T board and forced a fold OTT vs my AQ. Very aggressive and pounces on weakness. Unfortunately I am not as good a reader as him and did not want to stack off with TP.

V1 MP1 - loose aggressive Asian who has been on an upswing. Loves to play suited cards and will call off with a flush.

V2 CO - Short stack Black guy who has called off 50% of his stack several times only to fold miserably. Grumbling a lot and trying to get it in with "big" hands/draws.

MP2 - irrelevant here.

PF:
2 limps to V1 who raises to $25
One call in MP2 and CO calls.
H raises to $110 w/KcKs - should have raised to $125 even but it seemed enough

V1 calls
MP2 calls
CO calls

Pot = $450

Flop
Js 5s 3s

Asian moves All-in without a beat.
MP2 folds
CO shorty calls off $200 left in his stack. He had to do that with any spade or any pair given the size of the pot.

Pot is now
I call as well since at worst I am getting 38% vs a strong range (JJ, 33, 55, Spades, Spade draw)

Should I have been more considerate of the 2nd players overcall/All-In there?
If the BG had As then my equity falls to 6% vs the Asian's strong range.

What should have been my thought process here?

I just decided that my hand was strong enough for a huge pot and I had outs if I was behind.

Are there other factors I should consider?

Thanks.

Last edited by DryAngel; 11-13-2014 at 11:31 AM.
KK on a 3-flush board Quote
11-13-2014 , 07:33 PM
Need stack sizes for Vs, plz. Sounds like V1 has you covered and CO was bout $310?

Looks like your call will be $630 into $1815ish? Given that V1 overbet shoved, flushes aren't much of his range. Mostly sets, overpairs, and semi-bluffs with AsX, I would think. You're doing well against that range.

Bad news is CO. He usually calls big bets pre and then "folds miserably," but he called here? You are in bad shape, I think. Can he have non-nut flushes/FDs in his range? Does he cold call twice with, for example, 9sTs? If this is AsJx+, then we're doing poorly enough in the main that the overlay on the side pot isn't enough. we could have equity as low as 15% in the main. If he could have a wide variety of low made flushes, it's probably an OK call.
KK on a 3-flush board Quote
11-13-2014 , 08:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
Bad news is CO.
Why just CO?

Remember the aggro Asian was the original PFR, who called Hero's PF 3bet. What are you ranging him on when he STILL open-shoves into 3 others OTF?
KK on a 3-flush board Quote
11-13-2014 , 08:34 PM
My range is given above. We are behind that range, but with the dead money in the pot, it's still a call if we were HU. We only would need 39% equity in that case (if CO had folded instead of calling), and we have something like 48%.
KK on a 3-flush board Quote
11-13-2014 , 09:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
My range is given above. We are behind that range, but with the dead money in the pot, it's still a call if we were HU. We only would need 39% equity in that case (if CO had folded instead of calling), and we have something like 48%.
i wouldnt be surprised if we were ahead.
KK on a 3-flush board Quote
11-13-2014 , 10:11 PM
When you have 48% equity against a range, you often are ahead. You're ahead of the AsJx part of his range, for example, while you are well behind the JJ part of his range. 48% is an average agreggate of the range I gave above, not the equity against any particular holding.
KK on a 3-flush board Quote
11-13-2014 , 10:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
When you have 48% equity against a range, you often are ahead. You're ahead of the AsJx part of his range, for example, while you are well behind the JJ part of his range. 48% is an average agreggate of the range I gave above, not the equity against any particular holding.
depending how LAG the LAG is JJ might be a very small part of his range. i think both of these guys are drawing to 2-12 outs very often
KK on a 3-flush board Quote
11-14-2014 , 08:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
Need stack sizes for Vs, plz. Sounds like V1 has you covered and CO was bout $310?

Looks like your call will be $630 into $1815ish? Given that V1 overbet shoved, flushes aren't much of his range. Mostly sets, overpairs, and semi-bluffs with AsX, I would think. You're doing well against that range.

Bad news is CO. He usually calls big bets pre and then "folds miserably," but he called here? You are in bad shape, I think. Can he have non-nut flushes/FDs in his range? Does he cold call twice with, for example, 9sTs? If this is AsJx+, then we're doing poorly enough in the main that the overlay on the side pot isn't enough. we could have equity as low as 15% in the main. If he could have a wide variety of low made flushes, it's probably an OK call.
Sorry about not including stack sizes.
H - $740
Asian V1 covers me - 1k stack approx
CO - ~$300

The side pot would be ~$850 vs V1 Asian. VS his range I felt I had outs even if he was shoving with sets, combo draws. Still felt that had to call it given the size of the pot and given that I had 2nd NFD.

Is that lazy thinking on my part?
KK on a 3-flush board Quote
11-14-2014 , 09:12 PM
How Laggy is this guy? I can't imagine there are any combo draws in his range for opening 5x over two limpers in MP1, much less in his range to flat your 3-bet with no one else calling before him.

Still, let's say you have 48% equity in the side pot. You will be putting in exactly 50% of the side pot, so the EV of the side pot is -$17.

Now let's say you have 15% equity in the main. That's where all the dead money is, so you don't need as much equity, but there's not THAT much dead money. Main would be 1050 if you call, and you'd be putting $200 of that in, so you'd be paying 21%. That's a negative EV of another $43.50, for a total expectation of losing $60.50.

You REALLY need V2 to have 9sTs in his range for this to be even close to break even. If he has a crap ton of non-nut XsYs in his range given action pre, then sure, you can call profitably. Very optimistic, imo.

Last edited by Garick; 11-14-2014 at 09:19 PM. Reason: subtraction is hard
KK on a 3-flush board Quote
11-17-2014 , 12:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
How Laggy is this guy? I can't imagine there are any combo draws in his range for opening 5x over two limpers in MP1, much less in his range to flat your 3-bet with no one else calling before him.

Still, let's say you have 48% equity in the side pot. You will be putting in exactly 50% of the side pot, so the EV of the side pot is -$17.

Now let's say you have 15% equity in the main. That's where all the dead money is, so you don't need as much equity, but there's not THAT much dead money. Main would be 1050 if you call, and you'd be putting $200 of that in, so you'd be paying 21%. That's a negative EV of another $43.50, for a total expectation of losing $60.50.

You REALLY need V2 to have 9sTs in his range for this to be even close to break even. If he has a crap ton of non-nut XsYs in his range given action pre, then sure, you can call profitably. Very optimistic, imo.
Thank you!! This helps tremendously.

I failed to consider all the odds and just added all the pots together. Will look to make good folds - my weak point.

In the end, V1 had a small flush OTF - I want him to call in the future with 100-1 odds anyway.

V2 didn't show and just threw his hands away.
KK on a 3-flush board Quote

      
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