Good point - he's a tournament player. Tournament players loooooooooooove to pot control and thing TP is the nuts.

I agree - allowing the turn to check through is awful. If we size our bet well enough, we can still get action from Jx. Moreover, I think his range is less sets because he's raising a dry flop. Not many players will fast play a set on this board.

1/2 pot OTT.

Not trying to be racist, but one thing I have noticed about a lot of black guys that play poker where I play is that there are two distinct styles: invisible/tight-passives and wild crazy LAGs who like to be table bullies. Most of the time these crazy LAGs are fairly transparent when they act, as in they act super strong when they speak, place their chips in, etc., and when they do this they are usually pretty weak. Opposite is true as well, when they meekly put chips in or aren't talking they usually have it.

AP, the flop raise from V may be because he put you on AK, and your call may not necessarily convince him that he's beat if he has AJ and will fire again on the turn when you check. I think if you lead the turn strong it will confuse him and might get him to fold all the hands you have crushed but not the ones that crush you.

Thus I'm going to c/c this turn and re-evaluate river, and/or lead a good river if he checks back.

I kind of think you're giving away a little by pointing out two specific card suits, but maybe I'm wrong.

Call now.

x/call most turn bets.

x/fold river, unimproved.

Not stacking off for 200bb with an overpair.

Pretty much this.

/end thread

But in all seriousness, we should be looking to get to showdown as cheaply as possible. C'est la vie when you are OOP with a strong showdown value hand vs. an aggressive action that can be interpreted as overplaying his hand.

Unless this guy really bombs the turn and river I am feeling fine. I doubt Jx fires three streets either so you should know where you stand by the turn sizing and/or river.

He's got all 18 combos of sets in his range but he also has 12 AJ, 12 KJ and maybe half the QJ combos so you are roughly 2:1 ahead of his range.

When in doubt let combos and bet sizing guide you.

I really like bet/folding the turn.

Lots of value, Tootie it doesn't matter that we look so strong, he is never folding TP or T9/98 and JT+
If he shoves I fold.

OTR I'd bet again on everything but a JT98

This sucks, why do I have the feeling we are going to get rivered in this hand.

Given the information we have I would most likely be folding flop, or calling flop raise with intention of check folding to any turn bet over $125ish.

Hero checks turn.

V bets 100$.

Hero?

Backdoor clubs, T8 got there but we are still ahead of all Jx in his range (unless the 3 suited combos of J9 are in his range as well).

Call and evaluate. Check/raising is too strong. Folding is out of the question.

I'm guessing a jack fell on the river. That or an ace.

No reason to change plans now. This is a call without some specific history/read on this villain.

I would call turn bet AP

You are kind of forced to play your hand passively, due to villain's flop action. However, You are still underrepped and the fact that you hold the Kc can put club draws in your range, so villain should be betting his entire value range here. This is one of those hands that you just have to ch/call and evaluate action on later street.
I'm still confident of our hand in this scenario and would be comfortable to call.

Call>>>>>>>>fold>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>raise

Interesting hand. He could have a set or Jx. I may fold flop because I see a WAWB sitution between sets and Jx. but the hive mind says call turn so I call. Turn is check and his sizing isn't good so flat. River I'm checking and going for SD value.

Folding flop (or probably at any point oin most rivers) is just bad from a theory perspective, and folding depends on a population read we aren't sure holds in this case. The assumption is that 1/2 players are so bad that when they raise postflop they can only have nutted hands, but this guy could very well be bad in other ways. Folding is a very exploitative play, so we should have evidence it would actually exploit villain to fold before we fold. The population read is evidence, but I don't know think it's enough evidence to deviate from fundamentally sound poker.

b/f otf

You beat QQ and lose to sets/AA. If he's terrified of possible 1 outers I don't think he's raising and barreling JTo.

Only thing I'd like to know more about is how loose is this villain preflop. Is he calling all kinds of jack hands? AJ QJ KJ JT? I don't see how we're ever b/f'ing this on the flop.

Turn, I don't mind a lead into that card. Anything beyond that point is really feel of the player. As you describe him, I think he can overvalue top pair, but if you told me this was a new table, b/f is probably what I would do.