1/3$ Bellagio, Saturday afternoon
Hero: 1400$, 30yo white guy, headphones, has been running hot. Had set over set for stacks in standard spot, rivered another set vs some tard who played AA terrible. Showing down solid hands and playing TAG if anyone is paying attention
V: 675$, mid 20s black guy, wearing WSOP hoodie, seems like a "I wanna be a pro" type rec-fish. He also flopped set over set and doubled up and gave a big "whoaaaa that was nasty" comment after the hand as if he was nervous sweating the 1-outter. Just seems like a fish from what I've seen in an hour or so.

The Hand: folds to hero in CO who opens to 15$ - standard for table - with black KK. V calls on the button in normal timing; maybeeee a little faster than usual from what I've seen.
Folds around.

The Flop: J♣️7x3x rainbow (34$)
Hero leads 25$, V raises to 75$...hero?

call, check/call, check/call.
If he checks the turn I think I'm gonna lead the river for value

However you think you can get the most money in. Will he fold to a re-raise with AJ - QJ or gii (although I don't really like a raise here)? If you just call and keep firing, will he call down? If he has a set, so be it, but at least you saw him play a set -- what did he do?

Your hand is definately too good to fold without any special read. It's a standard bet/call on the flop, I'm more interested in hearing actions on the turn and river.

Call flop is best line for me unless you think you can raise him to $150 and get called by AJ

Call flop. Check/call most turn cards, evaluate on river. Without a specific read your hand is too good to give up but not so good you want to get stacks in. This flop is pretty dry and his raise is only saying he thinks you may be c-betting air. If he bets turn and river I might fold river. Depending on run out I might bet river if he checks.

No draws to protect from, so no need to 3bet flop. Fairly standard bet/call, IMO. I plan to to lead out again on most turns that could bring pair+draw, perhaps c/c a turn absolute blank (like a deuce), and c/decide on Jx.

Nothing else but call. Don't want villain to hero fold AJ

Really depends how fishy he is.

If he will overvalue TP, raise to $200. If his ranging is limited to putting you on AK, he may be trying to steal a dry board. Call and see if he'll fire again. C/C turn; if checked through, lead river.

I'm calling now, but I'm c/f on the turn if he sizes to put stacks into play. He always has it, it's just a question of what he perceives "it" to be. I'm guessing he's going to start to shade down his sizing without nutted hands and is going make it huge with sets.

One thing to keep in mind is that this guy knows a little bit about poker and is trying to play good. He's not a clueless whale who's felting with any top pair, he's a "wannabe pro" rec fish who probably thinks about poker in terms of how big of a pot he wants to play with each of his hands.

Seems like a bet/call is pretty agreed upon.

Hero does just that...bet/call.

Turn: J♣️7x3x9♣️ (180$)
Hero is first to act...? Villain has about 575$ behind and hero covers

Check

How deep is the rest of the table? If everyone is much shorter (say 100bbs or less), then I have no idea why we are sitting directly out of position to the only other deepstack at the table.

SPR is a big ~19, so I'd probably just lean to 3 bet/folds.

I'd probably just fold to the flop raise, even though he could certainly be testing us to see if we have anything (we did open in the CO so that always looks suspicious) or he could be overplaying Jx. If I didn't feel comfortable folding to a raise to this guy, I woulda just checked the flop. ETA: I guess I can get behind a check/call but it really depends on how often this guy shuts down after raising the flop; if he doesn't, then best to get out now.

GcluelessNLnoobG

The problem with the dry board texture is that most of the hands hes repping beat you. The only hands he could feasibly do this with that you beat are AJ or QQ. Calling the flop and I think I'm x/c'ing the turn.

Don't tell me you c/r all in on the river as a bluff when it comes Ac...

I think I might call, bet/fold turn. Likely check/fold if turn is an ace. Highly exploitable if villain knows what we're doing, but I don't expect to be raised a second time with a single pair hand.

Bet/fold turn IMO, as per my plan in my initial post. This turn card gives lots of pair+draw hands he could have, and we really don't want him to check behind. If he raises turn again, I think we can solidly put him on 2p+ and fold.

I dunno GG, b/f and c/c the flop both seem very very weak when we are at near the top of our range, which is wider than usual given CO/BTN dynamic.

Bet/fold 120$. If he flats I think he has Jx a lot.

Sometimes you get dealt the seat you're dealt.

3-betting is pretty bad here. It allows the villain to play perfectly against us. He'll fold Jx and continue with sets here.

On the turn I'm generally check/evaluating. Since most players are lol-bad at bet sizing, I'm calling most bets unless I get a live read that villain is super strong.

Regarding seat selection, fair enough, but it is definitely something the OP should be thinking about. (I think this is the third post I've responded to this morning where we are most likely sitting in a horrible seat, so I certainly hope we are not doing so purposely)

Ha, I didn't mean 3bet/fold; I meant I'd probably just bet/fold 3 streets.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Guy is described as a fish; is he aware of this CO/Button dynamic or just playing his hand?

I agree that a bet/fold is kinda weak, but if we're just hoping this guy slows down eventually I'm not sure bet/call is much better. And if we can't bet/fold comfortably, then I think check/call is a lot better (where we'll most likely be able to get to the river with an underrepped hand to showdown / realize our equity for a reasonable amount). Although I do agree that there are a bunch of worse hands (QQ, Jx, etc.) that could be raising for value, which makes things not as clearcut.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I'm not a fan of leading non ace turns. It looks super strong and we may get an over-played Jx to fold. Then again, perhaps I'm giving this player too much credit.

Frankly, the reads we have after an hour of play are very weak. We should have some idea of how he plays hands of different relative and absolute value.

Tootie, I'm not sure I can get behind an analysis that a turn lead looks so strong that Jx will fold, but that he will bet Jx if we check to him. Or are you saying you prefer the turn to check through?

Personally, I think a check thru is a disaster, seeing as how we are ahead of his overall range and a significant portion of his range picked up additional equity on the turn.

Yeah, I would need deeper reads than "seems like a rec/fish" to deviate from my standard plan.

Standard plan here is bet/call flop, check/call turn, then usually lead river. I expect him to show up with AJ here a ton. He's going to plan on betting the turn for value, then meekly checking behind on the river. Betting the river will put him to a decision he won't like, but I expect most recs to sigh-call with TPTK/TPGK because "they didn't come all this way just to fold."