Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
No, because by checking we don’t isolate his calling range to Ax hands and can raise for value versus his turn betting range which is going to include a lot of hands that would have folded to a flop bet.
Curious to carry this a bit further.
I agree betting the flop tends to tighten V's continuing range considerably -- likely to TP+ or good draws (of which there aren't many).
OTOH, V is likely to have hands that aren't calling a bet at any point in the hand unless they bink and avoid the flush draw. If we're not getting money from them later, might as well make them surrender their equity now.
If we check the flop back, we need V to either bluff at it or bet a hand worse than ours (presumably out of some misguided idea of getting value). I haven't had much luck getting LLSNL V's to bluff into me (though that may be a result of my playing style). Similarly, I wouldn't want to bank of V betting something like QJ (though reads on this V may make it more likely).
In any case, if we raise the turn, I'm not expecting any worse hand to call. I think aces will often call and jacks will often fold. Every once in a while, V will b/3b the turn and we'll be quite sad.
Thoughts?