Quote:
Originally Posted by Buster65
What would be the point of me doing this? Our conceptions of his range are so far apart, what would either of us gain?
Quote:
Originally Posted by donkbird88
What's our plan if we call and the turn bricks? You say the worst case scenario is that he turns a pair but the worse case scenario is we call, turn bricks off and he jams. That's something like 250ish to win 450 so we need 55% equity. Against AQ we have 39% against QT 33% and 44 or TT we have 30%. On the flop we have more equity than AQ and QT and a slight -EV vs sets. Just get it in.
That was not directed at you. I am referring to this guy who is part of your
"consensus says jam therefore it must be correct" crew.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Buster65
I would rather add 10-20% FE OTF, since this works for me.
I am asking you to do the necessary work here rather than just pulling this 10-20% number out of your ass. To do this, you need to present his preflop calling range vs. his preflop 3! range. Then you need to determine his flop x/f, x/c, x/r/c and x/r/f range. You haven't done any of this.
There is also a pretty big difference between 10% and 20% FE. Further, if you think he is actually showing up with every combo of AQ and KQ and x/r/f them then he is folding ~80% of his range (x/r/c 6 combos of QTs and 44; x/r/f 21 combos of AQ, KQ) and shoving is obviously superior. But that is not reality.
If this guy is actually a TAG then he is 3! 99+, KQo+ from the BB after two limpers + a BTN raise and calling with KQs. AQs can go either way due to playing well multi-way, but the poor absolute and relative position steers those closer to a 3!. There is nothing TAG about calling KQo/AQo from the BB and playing a potential 4-way pot with the worst absolute and relative position.
So now he's got a flop continuing range (by my estimate) consisting of 3 combos of 44, 3 combos of QTs, 3 combos of KQs, 3 combos of QJs and an unknown number of NFD's and weaker flush draws, straight draws, BDFD's + air. The more "TAG" this guy is, the less of these weak hands he is going to have. The more LAG/bad he is, the more of these types of hands he will have. The read in OP is contradictory as he cannot be simultaneously TAG and extremely aggro/FOS and calling as wide pre as people ITT seem to think.
Either way, x/r/f KQ+ on a soaking wet board and SPR ~7x is a mistake and a poorly played hand by villain. And if you are throwing all combos of KQ into villain's x/r/f range then you are cannibalizing his x/c range.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Buster65
You would rather make a break even call OTT. I never said I disagreed with your calculations, I just think it's a leak. You don't. Fine, so be it.
Not sure where you were going with this but the break even call OTT is against exactly QT+ which is a whopping 6 combos (it's actually ~2% -EV). When you include the rest of his range, which is unknown and we clearly disagree on, it becomes massively +EV. For every reasonable weak draw x/r combo we add it boosts our turn call equity by 4-5%, and any excessively weak combo he spazzes with OTT (like J
8
) boosts our turn call equity by 3-6%. When we shove the flop we fold any and all spazz villain may have that would shove the turn with somewhere between 5-20% equity versus our hand.
And finally of course there are the non-zero % times where we are behind on the flop and villain checks the turn to us for whatever reason (but would have called a flop jam) and we realize our equity for free.
As you said, there is no point discussing further as we disagree on what kind of cards a "TAG" will show up with here. Frankly, I don't think villain is a TAG, nor do I think he is ever x/r/f KQ+, and if OP has a read that he thinks he's FOS then I want to keep every damn combo he has in his range and allow him to think he has FE with at turn jam.