I'm really surprised there has been this much debate on this hand.
Definitely better to jam the flop than to call and call turn, jamming the flop gives us fold equity, calling off relies on our equity from the draw alone, it's therefore obvious #isn't it?) that jamming is the bigger +eV line to take.

Fold equity is the most overused misunderstood magic bullet buzzword thrown around on 2p2 to justify decision making.

I'm listening....


Bare in mind, I said :



So it's not that I disagree with you, I'm curious on your thoughts because I respect your thought process

There is $42 in the pot and Hero is betting $25. Low flush draws are not too weak to call in this spot. In fact, villain should be calling all flush draws and all open ended straight draws in this spot. Low flush draws don't really have that much equity when we GII because the range of hands Hero is going to be willing to GII with is heavily weighted with bigger flush draws...much more so than the range of hands he cbets this flop with.

Check raising with J9 in this spot is terrible. Really beyond terrible to be perfectly honest. If one is raising that wide they are bluffing way way too often. I bluff way too much as it is...especially for full ring live low stakes and even so I'm never bluff raising with a weak draw in this spot. If Villain is bad enough to check raise huge with J9 in this spot then he's here to gamble and I don't see how you can reasonably expect him to fold his draw after putting that much money in the middle.

This is the easiest hand on the first page. Why are there so many nonsense replies?

I touched on it in previous posts and jambre seemed to pick up on it as well. The gist of it is, all of *OUR* money is going into the pot by the turn (most of the time). The only question is: what is the best way to get all of villain's money *FROM HIS ENTIRE RANGE?* OP has a read that he thinks V is the player type that can be FOS and super weak/light so I don't want to deny him the chance to put his money in as a worse than 4:1 dog.

Yes, conventional wisdom says "put as much money in the pot as quickly as you can when you have >50% equity," but if our villain is going to do it for us on the turn, and even if he doesn't we are IP and can control whether it goes in, then there is little rush or incentive to speed up the process on the flop.

Most people are bad at ranging. Most people overestimate FE. Trying to make people fold top pair after they take an aggressive flop x/r line is generally a mistake. But hey, "we've got equity and FE so ship it in!" FE works best when our opponent likely has a weak range and little pot equity, like when he raises preflop and c-bets flops with air. Your FE is very low vs. a value range when a villain x/r's a wet flop at this sizing.

FE = % chance villain folds * villain's pot equity

There are a maximum of 30 value combos villain has here: KQ+, QT , TT and 44. Each combo folded represents 3.3% of his value range, so 1 combo of KQ folded adds 0.033*(45%) = 1.5% equity to our equity.

Said differently, if villain only folds 1/30 value combos, shoving the flop generates an +EV of (.033*157) + [(0.55*(42+25+90+242)] - [(0.45*(-242)] = $5.2 + $219.5 - $109 = +$115.7 Each combo that villain folds adds ~$5 (1.7 BB's) to our EV.

To call the flop raise, we need 29% equity to the turn. Assuming we have 15-18 outs, we've got ~35%. If the turn bricks the pot will be $222 with $242 effective stacks. If villain shoves here, we need 34% equity and we've got 37%. So call/call is always going to be +EV vs. his value range. This does not take into account the times where villain checks or bets less than a jam which is also very +EV for us.

The argument for shoving the flop is that you believe the extra $5 per combo in +EV is > the additional +EV available from an entire subset of other hands villain has that may fold to a flop shove but would bet/shove or bet/call the turn himself. The shove flop crowd also has to believe that villain has EVERY SINGLE COMBO of AQ/KQ in his flop x/r range *AND* that he will be in the mood to fold those combos after taking an aggressive flop x/r line with only 80 BB's behind. Interestingly enough, the combos that V is less likely to x/r with but more likely to fold to our flop jam are the KQ combos which have better equity vs. us then his AQ combos (45% vs. 41%).

In my experience, there is not going to be many KQ hands in the call pre -> x/r flop range, and if they are, I don't think villain is going to be folding them very often. Generally the x/r range is going to be nutted value hands like AQ+ that simply aren't folding for 80 BB's more. So that leaves draws and spazz. And we don't know what villain is going to do with his draws, especially the weaker ones, if we shove. Villain folding any of his dominated flush draws that he would have shoved the turn himself is a disaster for us. Similarly, folding any of his combos of J9o which we have 83% equity against on the flop, or denying him his chance to shove those same combos on brick turns when we have 86% equity is a huge drag on our EV vs. his flop x/r range.

I love how the easiest no brainer hand in the world gets 55 replies while all the hands where we actually have to think get 10 replies and then die.

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