A-K Whiffs..continuation bet? Lots of money in pot. - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

Two Plus Two Forums Poker Strategy Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash

A-K Whiffs..continuation bet? Lots of money in pot.

Post Reply Subscribe

...

01-12-2020 , 03:08 AM

thenewoldpro

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2018 Posts: 555

1-2 NL Holdem.

V1, Middle Eastern guy, Loose and Aggressive, has about 600 in front, BB.

V2 Older Guy..but Loose Passive. 300 in front. UTG+2

V3 Young White guy 200 in front. Somewhat loose, a little more tight. MIddle Position.

Hero in the CO. 200 in front. Image being tight.

V4 Older Lady, Tighter than the rest but not a complete nit. Has shown calling off her stack with Top Pair and mediocre kicker. Only 100 in front.

OTTH

V2 Raises to 7, V3 calls.

Hero picks up A-Ko and raises to 30.00.

V4 surprisingly calls
V1 calls
V2 calls
V3 calls.

($151)

Flop comes 3-5-6 rainbow.

All villains checks to hero.

Hero?

Quote

01-12-2020 , 03:23 AM

XtraScratch8

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 3,578

Super easy check back/give up.
Huge spew to bet here.
I would also 3 bet a bit bigger pre.

Quote

01-12-2020 , 03:57 AM

Mr Spyutastic

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 15,126

I probably just gamble and shove. A lot of whiffs from villain's too. And you look pretty strong and can get some better to fold. Not in terrible shape even if old lady has like QQ and calls.

Quote

01-12-2020 , 04:53 AM

OvertlySexual

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 2,093

We are up against 4 villains who called a 3bet, some of them described as tight. Combined ranges should pretty strong. You only have essentially a jam left. Doubtful villains fold top pair hands.

Check fold for me.

Quote

01-12-2020 , 06:15 AM

Petrucci

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 6,199

Yeah, i mean 4 ways i doubt a bet or shove is much of a +EV play here. Sure, heads up or even 3 ways under the right circumstances i could certainly get behind a shove- but 4 ways we just have to give up here with ace high.

Quote

01-12-2020 , 06:38 AM

Mr Spyutastic

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 15,126

You'd be surprised. You could have 3 people holding QJs for all you know.
I'm just saying a shove here can't be that bad. Even when called you're not in that bad shape.
Also considering the size of the pot.

Quote

01-12-2020 , 06:47 AM

Petrucci

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 6,199

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic

Sure, everybody could have flopped sets too and we are dead. That isnt the point really. The point is that 3 players ranges combined is too much to attack here with ace high.

I can get behind you that it cant be too bad, but that doesent mean its +EV and that we should shove here 4 ways.

Its okay to have some check/give ups even in 3 bet pots. We dont have to hunt every single pot, because when we do its really easy to start spewing.

Quote

01-12-2020 , 07:05 AM

OvertlySexual

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 2,093

If they have QJs, why bet? Your AK is good and you have showdown value. They shouldn't be betting either.

Shove A4s as a bluff.

Quote

01-12-2020 , 07:05 AM

Mr Spyutastic

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 15,126

Quote:

Originally Posted by Petrucci

There are way more whiff combos and one pair combos than sets. Like way more. Given the size of the pot and the amount of chips he has left shoving is fine and probably even slightly better than giving up. You will win sometimes even when you get called.
I get what you are saying, but this isn't one of those spots.

Quote

01-12-2020 , 07:21 AM

#10

venice10

Referee

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 25,855

The problem is the flop is so low. At 1/2, people just won't fold an OP in this situation.

c/f unless you improve.

Quote

01-12-2020 , 10:42 AM

#11

ProRailbird

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 1,292

Against 2 opponents this is a tough spot against 4 opponents I think jamming here sucks.

Given our opponents are probably not that good at poker I might do something exploitative/stupid here and bet like $2 or $5 or $13 in order to buy a river. If we check here it's going to result in us folding on all non-ace/king turns which we should be way ahead on.

Quote

01-12-2020 , 11:26 AM

#12

kimoser22

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 3,822

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic

Ehh, It's close but I think a fold using some fishy ranges against 4 callers I think they (combined range) flop a set or better 17% (some quick and sloppy PPT work) of the time and have an overpair or better 40% of the time so it all depends on how many over-pairs will fold obv we have equity against the overpairs, so its pretty close either way...

I think I used 456 for the range by accident which prob lessens str8...close either way

Quote

01-12-2020 , 11:54 AM

#13

Clayton

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 32,226

check!

Quote

01-12-2020 , 06:48 PM

#14

Viral25

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 1,857

Based on your comments on you being nitty from this and the other thread, i'd say there is future image EV in jamming here, getting snapped by a set and then proudly showing your hand whilst rebuying

.

As for actual hand EV, V4 coldcalling pre of that short stack pretty much kills your options.

Quote

01-13-2020 , 02:07 PM

#15

Javanewt

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 12,771

I can go either way. Seriously, jamming and checking / giving up are both fine.

If I'm fine re-loading, I jam.

Quote

01-13-2020 , 02:35 PM

#16

NuklearWinter

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 2,735

Check and hope to pair up. Look at their stacks and the hands they would play this way based on their positions... shoving here is fairly suicidal.

V1 in BB - this flop could hit his cold calling range.
V2/V3 - I'm the least worried about these players as they are ranged as mid pairs and broadway cards. If the hand was only vs them I could get on board with a cbet.
V4 - Short stacked lady cold calling is worrisome and I would expect her to have a lot of 88-QQ type hands looking for a safe flop to get it in with. Given how short she is I don't think she will fold very often post flop.

Quote

01-13-2020 , 02:50 PM

#17

Javanewt

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 12,771

We started the hand with 100bb, the pot is 75bb, and we have ~75bb left with a tight image and two overs -- this is never suicide. It might be gambling, but for 100bb vs. this lineup, that's not such a bad thing.

Quote

01-13-2020 , 09:37 PM

#18

RoadtoPro

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 6,600

Since you have a tight image, I’m very tempted to shove, but a check seems fine as well.

People will assume you have AA or Kk if you shove, so while they won’t fold if they flopped gin I think you can get everyone off a pair. Also, you have decent equity value a hand like 88s

The problem is that people call off in spots where they “know they’re beat” all the time.

Quote

Post Reply Subscribe

...