H is a YWG wearing a T-shirt. At the table for about 30 min. So far I have doubled against one guy with a turned boat against his trips. He has since busted. Image should be solid. Stack is 330.

Open JTss UTG to 15. Three calls, including one WG who seems fine / low info, another Asian guy who seems somewhat passive / loose (I had previously bet 3 streets against him with a turned TP and folded to his river raise), and a fat white guy on the button who seems TAG.

F is J98r no spades. Pot 60.

I bet 30. V1 calls, V2 folds, V3 calls. Pretty good flop for us. We’re ahead of all T draws, all 9 and 8, lower pairs. We lose to 2P, sets and straights. H bets with a good but somewhat vulnerable hand and a good draw to get value and charge worse draws and pairs.

T: 4c. Pot 150

Brings a BDFD, not too worried about that. Doesn’t change my analysis so I bet again, 60. V1 folds, V3 calls.

R: Qc. Pot 270

Clubs get in, but there are relatively few club draws that make it to the river (or get past the flop). I make the straight. H thinks for a while and elects to shove. I thought about betting less, but I can never fold, so figured it’s better to just gii now and go for max value against a 2P that might look me up light. (Too optimistic?)

I’ll post results after some analysis, happy to hear thoughts on all streets.


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I'm checking this turn. As played I think shove is mandatory.

Check flop.

Or bet bigger OTF - ship turn AI

Do you think there is any merit to under betting with like 105ish? Get a sigh-call from any 2P or disbelieving big jacks (although that seems optimistic tbh)


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I don't think the average player will call off a river shove with anything worse than a straight, so villain would have to be particularly stationy for this to work. With the flush and straight getting there, I think people will just be too scared.

I like the idea of betting ~100 - I expect you to get looked up by all 2pr hands and possibly AJ/KJ depending on the player.

I'm not a fan of double-barrel donking multi-way with top pair mid-kicker. We should never be bluffing in this spot, so when we donk bet flop it reveals some info about our hand. We don't need to play super deceptively at 1/3, but this just doesn't seem like a spot where we need to bet for value / protect our hand. I like leading out on turn though.

I go slightly higher on flop and turn (definitely more on turn), then shove river.

As played, shove on river is fine. Betting smaller is fine, too. If V3 is the TAG player, you can check and hope he bets for you, but it would be a disaster if he checked behind.

Which flop card was the club? I would be slightly less worried about a possible flush if it was the J, I guess, but there are obviously some flushes in their range anyhow.

By betting flop and turn I think you're overvaluing the strength of your hand (you list the hands you're losing to but forget to include basically all Jx). I mostly check this flop to begin with.

The overvaluing then continues on the river. I don't think there's any value in a shove, to be honest. No draws miss and no one is gonna think you're shoving an overpair, set or two pair here. If you get called, all you can do is hope and pray they don't have a flush or KT. I have no idea which villain is actually the one that's still in and what your read is on him, but there might even be some room to bet/fold here, if you're sure they're not shoving a naked T when you bet like 100. Or you could FPS-bet/call some stupid amount like 40 to try and induce some spazz. But then you would have to rely on someone turning a made hand into a bluff, which probably doesn't happen often enough.

All in all I think you got yourself into a difficult situation. But I'm interested in hearing other opinions on this.

We're not donk betting, we're the IR.

TBH I think OP's flop action and sizing dug him a hole.

What does a 1/2 PSB on a J98 flop hope to accomplish? This board lands on typical callers' ranges like a cartoon safe, so you should either be betting more to price out draws or checking - mainly the latter. $30 into $60 encourages loose calls, which would be fine if you had QTs, but doesn't give you a whole lot of info to go on as-is.

AP you've arrived at the turn with a pot 1/2 of effective stacks, out of position, against 2 callers. That's a spot to be in and IMO makes a check mandatory, because what card is coming on the river that you really want to see? Q / T / 7 make one-card straights. Clubs may still be out there because you priced in BD draws OTF. Even with a miracle J you'll be an underdog if stacks go in.

I think either alternate flop line (check and play a small pot from there, or bet PSB+ and ship most rivers) would have worked out better here.

Just a couple of things to note.

Your image isn't solid if you bought in for 50 BB. You said you doubled up in a 1/3 but only have 330 on the table now.

Unless you determined that the best style to play at this table is to play LAG because everyone is folding to even minimum pressure, JTs UTG is a fold pf. You're mostly going to have to get people to fold to make this hand profitable and nobody came to the poker room to fold.

The turn "didn't change your analysis" but it sure did change your bet sizing. You are losing value from the draws of the villains.

I don't think anything worse calls you on the river, especially to your shove. A tied hand is unlikely to fold since they called you done this far. When nothing worse can call, it is time to check and use your bluff catcher.

OP: who called turn - low info guy, Asian guy or fat guy?

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I agree with this comment. The thing is we have only 42% equity against a range of {AJ,KJ,QJ,JT,T9s,AT,KT,QT}, so were actually slightly behind against one player. Moreover, against two opponents it becomes far more unlikely that both have a draw -- one of them probably has a better J than us. I think my cutoff for value betting turn here would be KJ+.

I think we have to check/evaluate turn, and probably fold to any sort of sizable bet from either player.

Fat guy called turn.

Seems like I should be playing this much more carefully. I like the idea of leading flop bigger to try to get HU and then evaluating turn depending on how that goes.

I agree that shove otr doesn’t accomplish anything, and a better line might be to b/f or c/c. Especially against the fat guy, who should have a decently strong range here.


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