NWI NL 1/2
Hero has been at the table for an hour. $185 at this point. Down 15 for the session. I get JJ UTG. I raise 15. My opens are either 12 or 15 for non-nit tables regardless of what I have when there are 0 limpers.
UTG+1 is unknown before today. He's at $1500 and (reportedly) has been killing the table for 5 hours. Villain is a 40 yo WG and about 350 pounds. He's drank 3 Miller Lites since I got to the table. He's in a very good mood. He and his wife are in town from I don't know where but i heard him mention twice that he "needs to check into the hotel." This fellow is jovial and has a 70 VPIP in the last hour. He's a calling station from what I can tell. Raised only a couple of times. He now acts out of character, looks at my stack, says "how much are you playing" and makes it $40. Previously he silently calls whatever raise comes his way. Everyone else folds. It comes back to me. My live read is that this is definitely aces.
Should I
1. Go with my read, save 25 and fold or
2. Call the 25 and try to hit a set knowing JJ on a low board is probably no good but that he would probably call an all in.

Well you aren't getting the odds to set-mine...

This is why I don't open to 7.5 BB though.

Getting 3bet at 1/2 is so rare, and people's calling ranges pre are so size inelasic, that you should be opening quite large with a tight range.

The only choices are between folding or jamming.

You've presented things in a way that suggests villain has QQ+ so im fine with the fold. Do not show anyone.

Vs opponents who could be doing this with AK, KQs, AQs, TT or wider I'm happy to 4bet jam.

Vs a passive calling station like you describe, I fold and move on, and feel really good about it.

What are the odds of flopping a set? If V is guaranteed to have AA and stack off 100% of the times regardless of board, what stack sizes do you need to be at to profitably call $25 more pre-flop? You've already narrowed down his hand to AA so these are the two eventualities. You should also be able to figure out what implied odds/stack sizes you need to profitably set mine.

Others have given you the answer though (this is a fold).

Nope. I'm not sure jamming JJ is ever that great of a choice against described villain. Flatting is certainly possible if the stack sizes or bet size were just slightly different.


I'll agree with this.

You have to factor in his 4-bet calling range, not just his 3-bet range. Download an equity calculator and get to work.

Well, we do know the stack sizes and bet sizes and they don't make flatting a viable option. The info that we don't know so well is the 70 vpip's 3bet range and 3bet/folding range.

So I don't regret saying that the choice is between folding and jamming and then going on to support a fold based on OP's description.

I think I have a problem with not backing down to smallish reraises but when I think I'm beat I should fold and that's a leak in my game. I used to be weak tight and I'm always trying to rebel against this now...maybe too much. I had a read and I need to go with it more as things are obvious, but not this obvious!, in 1/2.

As far as set mining odds went, I should have thought of this but i never think of JJ as set mining as i'm often up against AK here or AQ or even 4s through 8s at 1/2. Everyone puts you on AK and then calls even with small pairs in my game.