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JJ top set, difficult river decision

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06-10-2018 , 11:04 PM

Andnoel

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 587

Limits : 10/20 live in Asian casino (plays like 5/10)

TAG (UTG) - $2000
Hero (HJ) - $2000
Passive fish (BB) - covers everyone.

Preflop
TAG UTG raises $70, Hero calls with JsJd, passive fish (BB) completes.

Flop: ($220)
3d Td 7d

Passive fish (BB) leads $200, TAG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: Jc ($820)

Passive fish checks, TAG bets $700, Hero calls, passive fish call.

River ($3920)
2s

Passive fish checks, Tag instant shove $1.2k, Hero?

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06-10-2018 , 11:09 PM

Andnoel

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 587

If u are Hero, what range of hands would you put TAG on for him to make this play?

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06-10-2018 , 11:11 PM

AllTheCheese

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 11,898

Instant call. I would expect you have the best hand against the TAG almost always. If he has a flush, it should be the nut flush or KdQd, neither of which makes much sense after he bombs the turn for 85% pot. It seems quite likely to me that he has 777, TTT, or maybe just the nut draw that picked up a straight draw ott.

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06-10-2018 , 11:27 PM

Andnoel

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 587

Quote:

Originally Posted by AllTheCheese

Why can’t TAG have nut flush after he bombed turn? Couldn’t it be because he is setting up for a river shove ? Targeting at the passive fish?

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06-11-2018 , 12:02 AM

upswinging

banned

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 839

Fold

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06-11-2018 , 12:34 AM

AllTheCheese

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 11,898

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andnoel

Why can’t TAG have nut flush after he bombed turn? Couldn’t it be because he is setting up for a river shove ? Targeting at the passive fish?

He is easily set up for a river shove if he bets anything over 350. Even if you don't downweight his nut flushes, you're still priced into call against a range of sets and reasonable flushes he could possibly have from UTG. Not terribly worried about passive fish; his story makes no sense for a flush.

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06-11-2018 , 04:27 AM

momo_uk

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 2,546

I don’t like the fact that he’s tripling into two players when he should be afraid of the flush easily. I think you see a flush here so often. Can’t really read much into the sizing here as he could be betting larger to charge the NFD if he has a lower flush.

It’s really tough, I probably call.

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06-11-2018 , 04:54 AM

Chicagodude

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 2,810

I would call and expect to lose 50% of the time. I think you underreped your hand here.

I honestly think you're up against another set. That's my perception of it.

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06-11-2018 , 09:12 AM

Andnoel

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 587

Thank all for ur replies.

I tanked called and TAG shows AdKd for the nut flush.

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