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Old 05-24-2015, 12:15 PM   #1
DPCharly
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JJ in SB against aggro BB

So this guy (at my left) since he sat has been hitting the flop more than Babe Ruth. He got a mountain of chips that covers everyone, and after winning every hand he got into, started bullying the table and winning hands without showdown. To be fair, he plays one or two hands per round, but when he does, he does it aggressively.

So I got JJ in SB, everyone limped (the table was that passive, that might explain his aggressiveness), and I decided to pot it (45) Probably this was too little, I should have make it at least 80. I have 350~ behind.

Villain in the BB 3-bet to 145. Everyone folds. Hero?
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Old 05-24-2015, 01:10 PM   #2
Ragequit99
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Re: JJ in SB against aggro BB

If this is 2/5 and you have seen villain 3betting frequently then I think you can just shove over this bet though I still expect you to be in pretty bad shape when he calls. Even if he calls your allin 4bet with TT+ AQ+ KQ+ you are flipping vs 48 combos, crushed by 18, chopping vs 1and only crushing 6 combos. If you think he can 3-bet 99-22 and call off vs a 4bet with some of them then you'll be happier. Have you seen him showdown any hands after calling raises preflop? Have you seen him showdown after 3betting preflop? Have you seen him get it allin preflop before?

If he has not been 3betting very often and his aggression has all been preflop raises or postflop bets and raises then I think you are already in serious trouble and should just fold.

If it is 1/2 I would just fold.

It is very difficult to call his 3bet because you will face a $335 pot on flop with $350 behind. If villain misses with KQ+ he may well not call your allin on a <Q high flop flop so when you get called on low flops he will often have QQ+. When you shove into a >=Q high flop he will fold the smaller pocket pairs you beat and call KQ+ that pairs the flop.

Only way I think you can call is if you're confident he will shove a lot of flops with hands you beat if you check flop in front of him.
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Old 05-24-2015, 01:20 PM   #3
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Re: JJ in SB against aggro BB

What level are we playing? I assume 2/5, which means effective stacks are 79BBs, and I'll GII. Flatting lets him play perfectly against us and only continue OTF if he hits. Plus if he folds his equity with one or two overcards pre, that's not a bad thing.

If it's lower, things get trickier.
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Old 05-24-2015, 02:31 PM   #4
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Re: JJ in SB against aggro BB

Shove, more info on his 3betting would be useful
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Old 05-24-2015, 03:14 PM   #5
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Re: JJ in SB against aggro BB

Not sure but I think your playing 2/5 right? If so w/ less than 100bb's I'm happy to 4 bet shove here. The other option is fold which can't be any worse imo.

The only thing I would not do is call oop vs an agro villain running like meb.
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Old 05-24-2015, 04:03 PM   #6
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Re: JJ in SB against aggro BB

Yes, its 5/3.

I should have gone All In, but I actually just called. Such a passive move.

The flop (335) came Q58

Hero?
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Old 05-24-2015, 06:08 PM   #7
Ragequit99
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Re: JJ in SB against aggro BB

As discussed above villain can play perfectly against you.

If you bet you cannot make better hands fold and no worse hands can call unless he 3bets you with AXs. Even AcXc has 11 outs so is close to flipping with you at this point.

I think this means you have to just x/f and cut your losses. You might somehow check it to showdown and beat AK but if he bets you have to fold even though he may occasionally bluff you out with Ace-high. He just beats you too often when he bets for you to show profit calling him down.

Better to lose $145 than $495...
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Old 05-24-2015, 06:12 PM   #8
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Re: JJ in SB against aggro BB

If you had just called in the SB, what is the probability that he would have raised? If you limped and he raised, how big do you think he would raise and how many players do you think would call his raise?

I'd probably go for a limp-reraise if I think he raised the BB at least half the time. The worst-case scenario is having to play JJ more for set value, which isn't a completely horrible scenario, especially if you thought you were going to get multiple callers for your raise if BB doesn't 3bet.
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Old 05-24-2015, 07:33 PM   #9
tmacTheorySSAnne
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Re: JJ in SB against aggro BB

just think 10x plus a bb for each limper.. I gii here ap..asiannit is always trying to clean everyone out lol.. i would also like to see your answers to his Qs backed by good solid reasoning or else ap is fine gii pre imo, guy is running like god post guys on a heater! or not even..what signifies the word heater. not sure i used that right. i call this piece #vomitonpage
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Old 05-24-2015, 10:51 PM   #10
Garick
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Re: JJ in SB against aggro BB

AP, I check flop and call his likely bet. Betting ourselves never gets called by worse, but hell bet a much wider range if checked to. That range includes some Q's, but it also includes lower PPs trying to make us fold our equity and AK trying to fold us off a chop.
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Old 05-24-2015, 11:45 PM   #11
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Re: JJ in SB against aggro BB

Pre, you're considering shoving 350 to win 485 if he calls.

Neglecting FE, you'd need 42% equity when called to make this breakeven.

You have 42% equity against TT+, AK. That's a pretty conservative range for him, so pushing is almost certainly correct. If his range is wider, you either have better equity against his range or some FE.

As played, shove the flop.

Against TT+, AK you're a tiny favorite and getting odds shoving 250 to win 585.

If his range includes TT+, AQ+ and KQ (which is obviously a terrible range for you on this flop), you have 36% equity and should still shove.

V will play some hands perfectly against you, but will play some hands wrong (most notably AK, which should fist pump call as a flip getting 2:1).
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Old 05-24-2015, 11:47 PM   #12
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Re: JJ in SB against aggro BB

Hmm, interesting point. We actually want AK to fold, since it's getting great odds. I wonder whether shoving to fold it out vs. checking to capture other bets is better.

Edit: strike this. I was considering AK v. JJ odds preflop, which are a flip. On the flop we want AK to call as a 3:1 dog.

Check/calling is clearly superior. Even if V doesn't bet, it's probably not a disaster as we can shove the turn.

Last edited by Case2; 05-25-2015 at 12:05 AM.
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Old 05-25-2015, 01:01 AM   #13
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Re: JJ in SB against aggro BB

You mentioned that BB has been playing aggressively, but didn't provide any examples of his play? Has he been raising a lot PF and barreling off? 3-betting frequently? Calling raises and then getting aggressive postflop? This matters a lot in terms of how we range him after he 3-bets in this spot.

If you shove and he folds you win $225, assuming this is a full table ($45 + $145 + 7*$5 for the limpers). If he calls, then ignoring rake the final pot is $825 ($395*2 + 7*$5), so your EV is equity*$825 - $350. If we're give him a value range of TT+ and AK, we have 43% equity against that range, which means we lose $4.75 when he calls. Our total EV for a shove is then %fold*$225 - (1- %fold)*$4.75, so to break even, we barely need him to fold at all (~2% of the time). On the other hand, if we tighten his value range to QQ+ and AK, we only have 36% equity. We now lose $53 when he calls, so we need him to fold ~31% of the time, in which case he needs to have a wide bluff range.

Basically, if we think he's 3-betting widely, then PF should be a shove. If, despite his aggression, he hasn't 3-bet much or at all PF (and especially, hasn't shown down any light 3-bets), then I'd fold here without further reads.

As played, you called PF, so you must have thought villain was at least somewhat wide PF. Betting this flop doesn't accomplish much, as he's not folding better and only continuing with either hands ahead of you or draws with good equity. Given that we thought he was wide PF, we should c/c (or c/jam if his bet is less than a shove) to give him a chance to bluff with hands that missed the flop.
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Old 05-25-2015, 05:59 AM   #14
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Re: JJ in SB against aggro BB

Having said I would give up on this flop: If I were continuing I'd check and let villain bet as wide a range as possible.

However, I'm still not keen on continuing. I'm not sure how much live players are assigning accurate ranges, calculating their equity and then making marginal decisions for $350.

I think villain just sees you raise a table full of limpers from the worst seat at the table and assumes you have a good hand. Thus his 3bet (absent any read on his 3bet frequency) is tight and value heavy.

Next you call his 3bet which means villain can discount AA/KK and assume you have QQ- or AK/AQ. Postflop I think he doesn't bother taking marginal lines with AK/TT. I think he just decides if he has a decent Q or better he stacks off and if not he tries to check it down.

If it were me I'd kick myself for calling preflop, accept it was a mistaken gamble and that the overcard on the flop just ruined that gamble. Therefore I'd throw away my hand and my equity rather than risk my remaining $350 in a marginal spot.

With the entire table limping preflop there are surely going to be much better spots for you to gamble that $350?

This is something never discussed on these fora: Why stake decent money on an slightly -EV/breakeven/+EV spot when a clear +EV spot will come along shortly? By the time you've played a dozen marginal hands for stacks the rake will have more than wiped out any profit and made them all -EV. Add to that the tilt inducing effect of repeatedly losing stacks and you're even more -EV with these plays.

I can understand taking these marginal spots if that is all that's on offer because you're hard pressed by decent opposition. However, there really is no need if you are basically shooting fish in a barrel the rest of the time.
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Old 05-25-2015, 06:25 AM   #15
tmacTheorySSAnne
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Re: JJ in SB against aggro BB

yeah, agreed guys.. id like to hear an observed pre flop tendency also regarding getting it in here w jj - spit
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Old 05-25-2015, 10:24 AM   #16
DPCharly
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Re: JJ in SB against aggro BB

Interesting discussion!

Quote:
Originally Posted by RAHZero View Post
You mentioned that BB has been playing aggressively, but didn't provide any examples of his play? Has he been raising a lot PF and barreling off? 3-betting frequently? Calling raises and then getting aggressive postflop? This matters a lot in terms of how we range him after he 3-bets in this spot.
The Villain, as I remember, used to 3-bet frequently with the occasional limp if he wasn't in position. And post flop he went for the neck, raising and smashing. As I said, he got really good hands at the beginning, but later on he won his hands without showdown.

On the flop, I checked, with the idea of folding to a decent bet, but… he went all in. Does that ring any bells? Calling here would be bad?
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Old 05-25-2015, 10:35 AM   #17
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Re: JJ in SB against aggro BB

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ragequit99 View Post
This is something never discussed on these fora: Why stake decent money on an slightly -EV/breakeven/+EV spot when a clear +EV spot will come along shortly? By the time you've played a dozen marginal hands for stacks the rake will have more than wiped out any profit and made them all -EV. Add to that the tilt inducing effect of repeatedly losing stacks and you're even more -EV with these plays.

I can understand taking these marginal spots if that is all that's on offer because you're hard pressed by decent opposition. However, there really is no need if you are basically shooting fish in a barrel the rest of the time.
I think there are two parts to this question.

The first is whether we should take marginal spots that might not be +EV. My answer to that is that confidence in our EV estimation is actually part of the EV calc. If I'm not sure whether the situation has EV +5 or EV -5 (with equal likelihood), then the overall situation is breakeven and I would pass on it.

The second part is whether it's worthwhile to take a smaller +EV now when a bigger +EV will come along later. My answer is a definite yes.

We're not choosing between the situations; it's not either small now or big later. It's choosing whether I want a small amount of money now and a larger amount later. If I knew I was going to get $100 later, I'd still happily take an additional $10 now.
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Old 05-25-2015, 10:38 AM   #18
Garick
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Re: JJ in SB against aggro BB

Snap call. This bet isn't value. It could be an overpair or TPGK that's afraid of the FD, but more often it's AK with.no clubs or a little PP hoping you missed or a FD semi-bluffing. You're still ahead of his range, so as long as you're rolled to reload, GII.
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Old 05-25-2015, 12:51 PM   #19
Ragequit99
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Re: JJ in SB against aggro BB

Given this villain likes to just hammer in big bets postflop I don't think we can say this is any more likely one part of his range or another. We don't know whether he thinks hero thinks he is committed or not so I'm not confident saying this is AK or pair < Q any more than it is KQ+ or AcXc.

If villain had been seen coaxing calls with < pot sized bets in big pots when he had a strong hand then I agree, his shove looks more callable than a <1/2 pot bet.


On subject of taking marginal spots: Rake is probably proportionally lower at 2/5NL so I would be taking more marginal spots than at 1/2NL. What I would add to Case2's points is that your bankroll will have an impact on whether you take the marginal spots or not. I agree with Garick - call if you're completely happy reloading $500 here. It is likely slightly +EV. If you're not happy reloading a full $500 I would fold, reload $150 and expect to get this guy later or pick up a stack or two off the limping fish.

I suppose that's the key, if you cant or won't reload $500 then I think you are passing up playing at a profitable table when you call, get stacked and drive home in a mood
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Old 05-25-2015, 09:39 PM   #20
DPCharly
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Re: JJ in SB against aggro BB

Well, I called the All In…

The turn came 7 and the River A

He shows up T9 and I scooped the pot by the bare minimum…

Probably I would have folded to a value bet OTF or OTT…
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Old 05-25-2015, 11:43 PM   #21
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Re: JJ in SB against aggro BB

Quote:
Originally Posted by Case2 View Post
I think there are two parts to this question.

The first is whether we should take marginal spots that might not be +EV. My answer to that is that confidence in our EV estimation is actually part of the EV calc. If I'm not sure whether the situation has EV +5 or EV -5 (with equal likelihood), then the overall situation is breakeven and I would pass on it.

The second part is whether it's worthwhile to take a smaller +EV now when a bigger +EV will come along later. My answer is a definite yes.

We're not choosing between the situations; it's not either small now or big later. It's choosing whether I want a small amount of money now and a larger amount later. If I knew I was going to get $100 later, I'd still happily take an additional $10 now.
Yep, pretty much this. There are basically only two spots where we should pass up +EV opportunities: when we're underrolled for the game that we're playing (in which case we should probably leave) or when losing would prevent us from being able to take a better spot later (for example, a marginally +EV spot vs. a shove from a whale when 800 BBs deep, where if we get stacked we can only rebuy for 100 BBs). Otherwise, we should take every +EV spot that we get in cash games.
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Old 05-26-2015, 10:30 AM   #22
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Re: JJ in SB against aggro BB

Yep I agree - as long as you include rake in your EV calc.

To recap, for my benefit, Case2 and RAHZero; are you in agreement with this?

Take all +EV spots where your EV calc includes;
-rake,
-possibility of errors in assigning villain's range,
-your ability to reload to match a deepstacked fish,
-how much you might lose through tilt if you lose,
-and impact on bankroll.
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Old 05-26-2015, 11:24 AM   #23
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Re: JJ in SB against aggro BB

Looks good to me.
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