1-2NL. We're probably 7 handed or so at this point. Effective stacks $350.

Villain in this hand is relatively new to the table. He's an older guy, maybe mid 50's. I've never played with him before. He seems newish. He bought in for $300, has them in stacks of 10, and his hands were shaking as he pulled them from his rack. We played one hand in the previous orbit. He has about $350 and I cover.

Hand from before: Limped pot, and I limp QT OTB, and he is in the BB. Flop is Q73. Checks to me and I bet $6 and only he calls. Turn is the T He leads for $10 and I raise to $40, he calls. River is the 4, he bombs for almost $100 and I fold.

Hero is in the SB with JJ. V limps UTG. Folds to hero in the SB and I raise to $13. BB folds and V calls.

Flop: ($25) 234

Hero bets $17, V calls.

Turn($56) 234J

Hero bets $40, V calls.

River($136) 234J8

I see 3 options here.

1. Bet on the smaller side, like $50 to try to extract from his 1 pair hands.
2. Bet on the larger ($100+) side and try to extract from his stronger hands like sets.
3. Check and let him stab with all his whiffed draws.

If we do bet, is there any size we are folding to? Same if we check?

I like bet small to get something like pocket 5's, 6's or A4, A3 to make a hero call. I think these are much more likely than a set/straight or missed draw in this situation.

I'm probably not folding to any bet OTR.

Bet less than $105. Leave him half his stack to lose to you again in the next pot.

Ace king missed, time to bet huge.

$120

I kinda wanna x/stuff

If I’m betting I’m just jamming myself

Put me in the +$100 bet camp. I think if I had to rate them I'd say +$100 bet > x/jam > bet small. We are at the top of our range and only lose to flopped straights while we can get so much value from two pair hands and other sets that will call the large or the small bet.

$115 or x/jam. It’s a close decision, and you probably know how he plays better than we do

So what are we doing with QQ+ here? Jamming as well?

I think his range is elastic here and if we overbet jam all our value and bluffs here, we can value cut ourselves pretty easily when he can have a lot of slowplayed hands on a dry flop. Plus we get a better price on our heart draw bluffs to fold out his draws like Axhh, Ax, 55, missed draws, etc.

QQ+ I just make a standard value bet and bet/fold. I probably size it around $90-100.

JJ I am going for gold. The only thing that worries me is how inexperienced and thus possibly MUBsy this villain might be.

To all those saying bet $100+, what are we putting him on at this point to call this bet?

His range is usually going to be pretty weak here if he's making any sense imo. Slowplayed straight makes sense too. Sometimes weirdos show up with QQ, KK, AA but obviously not common. It's very hard for him to have two pair, and imo most players find a raise with a set at some point on flop or turn.

In game I probably find a small bet since I put him on a weak one pair hand like 90% of the time. Most of his 5x combos are actually straights (K5 thru 75 not commonly played utg), and who knows if he even bluffs air in this spot. What air can he even have?

Villain needs to call a $70 bet 4x as often as a $280 shove for a $70 bet to have a higher EV.

JJ is the absolute top of our range here. We literally have no better hand that ever arrives at this river in this manner.

I’m not wasting my 3 nut combos on some tiny little value bet. I’ve got tons of combos of 99, TT, AJ etc. for that. Big hand big pot.

I bet 80 and there's no way I'm folding to anything if he gets cute. Not on that board with that fellow. Glad there's someone "new" getting into poker. Too many regs in my world.

His range is more important than our specific holding. What do you expect him to have here to call a big bet on the river?

I bet $80 as well. He isn't calling a shove with one pair and we want him to call. I bet he has AJ or QQ.

So this was my thought as well. My "gut" read was that he was strong, so I went with a $100 bet to try and extract from this range. When I crunched it later, I was really surprised with how not great of an idea that might have been. Against a strong river range of all sets and straights, I'm like 25% equity on the river. Most 2-pair combos are really ragged on this board. Even against a range of all sets, straights, 43s and 23s, I'm behind his calling range. There are just way more combos of straights out there. That of course assumes he plays all combos of 56o and A5o. Even if we take out half of the offsuit combos, I'm still behind a reasonable 2pair+ calling rage. In order to make a large bet good here, he has to not have many straights in his range, or have a whole lot more ragged 2-pairs like 43o or have a 1-pair calling range.

I get that from an optimal standpoint, if I'm going to have a large betting range on the river here, then JJ has to be a part of that here, because I pretty much never have 56 or A5 here.

I think I like $50 to try and get more $$ from middling hands like 55+, 54, A2-A4, etc. Save the x/jam or large bets for when we boat up on the river and he has a larger calling range that we beat.

your villain is lol bad to flat that river

this hand is a cooler

You got coolered by a fish. Your thinking is mega results oriented

Just because its a cooler doesnt mean that we are ahead of a large bet river calling range. Please construct a range that calls a $100+ bet on this river that JJ is > 50% against.

It’s a fish limp/calling A5o UTG. He could call with J2s, A8o, KJo, A4, who knows. This dude isn’t exactly playing tight, obviously, not sure why you think that for some bizarre reason just because he had better one time.

You do realize you're only going to turn a set and river a boat from the flop less than 1% of the time don't you?

Well this took all of 60 seconds.

Tight value range:



Wider value + bluff catch range:



Widest value range:

There are 1 or 2 combos of J2s left. A8 seems a long shot to call a huge turn and river bet. 3 combos of KJ that shouldnt flat the flop. A4 is reasonable but calling $100 on the river?

Again, Im not saying he is tight, just that I dont see many hands in his range that can call a big river bet, but a lot more that can call a small one.

Give him offsuit 65 and A5 in your first range and those percentages flip.

I think its entirely reasonable to think a fish might have a loose preflop range but a tight river calling range when facing a big bet.

Not quite



Even under the most absurd assumptions tilted in your favor possible you still have 55%.