$300 ES
Player in 4 from Button opens for $15 & it folds to me OTB I have JJ. The blinds are soft & although they play a lot, are in their 60s+ & come mainly to get out of the house. They probably win $10-$12 pr hr long-term. Mostly from new faces who don't realize how tight they are.

I have a lot of hours playing against V & believe his range to be: any 2 suited broadway cards, AQo+ 99+. I also believe he is going to 4! if he has KK+, because he knows I'm capable of 3! to $50 with a range of similar, if not a little wider than his.

So, if he just flats, there is an extremely high probability that he does not KK+ which gives me 71% equity thru the Flop.

He is probably only going to fold, at the most: QTs, KTs maybe QJs. That's only 12 combos, so he is calling a high % of the time. Even if he folds 99/TT because he saw my JJ, he still is only folding 24 combos & there are 32 combos of suited broadways left, & 24 combos of AQo+

He only is ahead with his QQ when he flats my 3!

Why would I ever consider flatting V's $15 o/r? I can't think of a reason.

3betting is the standard play here; I'd bump it up to $50.

But since you asked what the merits of flatting are: when you flat, you get to realise your equity. For example, if the flop were to come Jxx or T98, those are good for you, but you faced a 4bet preflop and had to fold, you'd miss the opportunity to crack villain's KK/AA.

The other benefit to flatting is that you get to play a pot in position. The in position player will realise more of his equity than the out of position player. You say you have ~70% equity against villain's range, but that doesn't mean your EV is 70% of the pot. Your EV might be closer to 90% of the pot, since you have the advantage of position.

And flatting can underrepresent your hand, which is good for extracting value. Like you might win 3 streets of value if you flat pre and the runout comes T3272, but if you 3bet pre, you might only get 1 street of value against a top pair hand, since villain will be able to put you on an overpair and get away from his top pair easier.

Is 7.5X normal? Sizing tell? Pretty large for most $1/$2 NL games.

If a 4bet with AJs+ has a good amount of fold equity, that’s a reason to flat ip. I still think 3b is higher EV given the assigned range.

Fwiw, I wouldn’t label the blinds “soft” if they are winning 5-6 bbs long-term.

One additional reason to flat is so that villain can't do the same sort of analysis of your range that you did to his. By flatting occasionally with a good pair you insure that villain can't pin your flatting range at weak hands.

You still should be 3 betting your jacks that vast majority of the time. Jacks are a hand that is happy to raise and take down what is in the pot because realizing your equity post flop tends to be hard.

Yes! This is the position of a good friend of mine & I consider his game better than mine. Although I've been playing NLHE [5/5NL highest stakes with $1k buy-in] since 2002 & he's only been playing since around 2010, he lives with mother, taking care of her & therefore has not worked & devoted his life to being the best he can be. Anyway, enough braggin' about him.

My argument with the point you raise, which is his position, is that you cap your range when you flat AND allow two more players in. 1 for $14 & the other for $13. Sure, they'll be OOP, but they can play fit/fold post-flop if need be.

In addition, if one blind calls with 9s8s, the Flop is: Ks7c5d, the blind now has a gutshot & BDFD & if he checks & the original raiser checks & I check then the blind gets to see the Turn for free. If I bet the Flop, I'm betting into 2 players that may or may not have a K and if the blind calls & I check a 2c Turn after the blind checks, he can bet say a 4d River & it looks like he checked the Turn with a weak K & when I checked the Turn, he can now represent K [weak kicker] that intended to just call down on Turn/River & is now hoping to realize additional profit should I call with say JJ

Also, with the original opener PF being a decent player, he hardly ever going to Donk into me unless the Flop gives him something that he believes has a good chance of being the best hand but with the Flop being WET, has no choice but to ensure nobody gets a free card.

As for being up against KK+, which my friend states the same as you did above, with V's range being as I stated: 99+, any two suited broadways & AQo+, that's 87 combos & KK+ is 12 combos, or 14.28% of his range.

So, for me to realize crackin' his KK+, with a 10.5% chance of flopping a Set, I'll see that situation unfold: .1428*.105 = 1.499% of the time & that includes those times we BOTH FLOP A SET.


Agree! However, doesn't V have to have something like KJs & see a Flop of say Q92r with a gutshot & BDFD, for me to extract more money from him OTF?
And if I do...say the blinds folded when I didn't raise, there is $33 -$5 rake = $28 in the pot, so I bet $18 & he calls. Another $2 in rake, so a pot of $67 and $33 of it I contributed, so I'm looking at winning $34 -$1 toke, IF he doesn't hit a K or gut-shot.

On the flip side, if I 3! pre to $50 & it's $35 more to him, giving him 1.857:1 on his money, what % of his holdings is he going to fold? He has to call often enough so that I don't realize an immediate profit from 3! with any two cards and V folding too often.

Agreed! However, how often do you Flop an overpair with JJ AND get your V to call 2 streets on a T3272 board?

I haven't sat down & done an in-depth mathematical analysis [and Garick asks 'Do You Math?"] but on the surface, it sure seems to me that aggression is the better part of valor, however, I'm no Pro!

Agree 100%! You cannot be 3! 100% of the time in that situation. The key is determining what % of your range is the proper "occasionally" vs Vs that you play against a lot.

Some of these players have memories like an elephant! They'll bring up a hand we were HU from months ago! So, I have to act like I know what they're talking about so they think I have as good a memory as I do......

Where I play, yes. You can't go this poker room with $300 in your pocket & have an enjoyable afternoon of poker unless you're willin' to NIT it UP, buy-in for $100 & sit & wait.

Where are you located? I'm on the east coast and the max buy ranges from $300 to $500 for $1/3 & at one place you can straddle 5x the big blind from any position & the "street money" loves straddlin'!

I play in the northeast. When I play $1/$2 NL, usually open to $11, 5.5x, which tends to be on the higher side. If you can open higher for value, yup by all means.