1/3 NLHE, 9 handed

V1: MAWG. Tight player and usually has a hand if he bets/calls. However, I have seen him bluff and he will call with draws – he can be a little sticky, too. He has been calling every raise I make because he keeps getting lucky against me – and a few other players.

Hands of note: I raise MP w/ AhQh and V calls on BTN. Flop is 5s9sTh. I c-bet and V calls. Turn 2h. Now I have some equity and plan to check/call, but V checks. River is Js. I check / V checks and turns over Qs6s for the flush.

Another hand, I raise AsQh, V calls. I c-bet a two-heart innocuous-looking flop and V calls. Turn 7 check/check, river 5 check/check, and V shows 7h5h.

V2: MAWG. Recently sat down and have never played with him before. He came with a guy who has been fairly active and a bit crazy. I have seen him call with some speculative hands like suited connectors, Q9s, etc., and he’s been a little sticky with draws, too.

H: MAWW. I have a tight image and usually have a hand if I raise. I bluff more than they realize when the action is right, but I haven’t shown an outright bluff, except for whiffed c-bets. Lost my first buy-in w/ QQ vs KK all-in pre against the table maniac who had been gii w/ A6o, A8o, KJ, etc.

OTTH:

H, EP ($300): Raise JdJs $17 (standard)

V1, HJ (covers): Calls

V2, BTN ($300): Calls

Flop ($50): 4s5h6s

Hero? Since I know they will call with draws, do I bet and evaluate? Bet/fold or bet/call? Check/call or check/raise?

Yes we love when they call with draws, as long as they're getting bad odds. And sticky players are great for this flop as well. They will call with two overs, or Ax.

Bet 35/40. the b/f will depend on the size, and who raised.

The value of an over pair on these types of coordinated flops decreases multi-way imo. Even if ahead, our equity advantage may be marginal.

We have a FD blocker, nevertheless I like a C/C. If the BTN bets something like $15, I'd C/R.

I'd lead a blank turn since these types will still call w/draws.

This will be unpopular advice, but I agree 100%.

Are you recommending a c/c OTF because where you play, those players with the draw, will often raise with position?

No, though they might. I'm C/C for pot control on a flop that could easily have hit one (or two) opponents hard. There are sets, 2 pr, pr/combo draws, and ofc straights that minimize our equity. Even hands like 76/86 have strong equity vs. our over pair.

While I find leading the flop a bit thin, we could go for value on the turn and river. This is a two street value hand, not three, imo.

although I agree this is a two street hand, the flop is one of the streets I want. Overcards, spades, 3's and 7's are going to be hell for us on the turn.

if we check and the button bets 15 and we c/r and he folds, don't you think we would have made more when he calls a hp cbet knowing the flop bet is more FOS than a C/R after taking a cheap stab at the pot?

Also, it's hard to pot control when we're first to act in a 3 way hand. Suppose we check, middle guy checks and the button bets 75 into 50? are you folding? Wouldn't he be choosing the bet size instead of us and the one pot controlling?

The challenge here is multi-player. While a $15 bet might fold, they also might call a C/R. They also might fold to a cbet. Obviously player dependent itm.

I'm calling $75, which is more value than a cbet.

$50.

Kx and Qx really aren't that bad for us.
So much of their range will miss those cards.

Agree that 3 and 7 are both pretty meh for us. 8x also.

But even still, wide ranges and sticky V's with us having an OP means value bet.

With these stacks in EP (where a raise to get in 10% of stacks preflop will be difficult) at a loose sticky and possibly bluffy table, I would typically limp JJ in EP and evaluate if someone raises (leaning towards 3betting in most cases).

We've now got a small SPR of 5.5 where with any reasonable betting sizes we're going to be committed for stacks by the river, plus OOP to boot. I just don't enjoy these spots, especially if Villains put us on a face up overpair here (where they can play pretty perfectly against us postflop, all the while only getting in 5.5% of their stack preflop as a dog). Meh, imo.

Board is extremely drawy, plus there are some worse hands that could think they are best (such as small overpairs, some of whom have a draw). I think I'd bite the bullet and lean towards a huge overbet in order to setup a turn shove. So I'd probably bet $80 on the flop (keeping in mind that while this is a bit of an overbet it is also one that sticky players chasing draws are very unlikely to fold to on the flop) to setup a ~PSB turn shove and I'm not folding (unless perhaps a ******ed card falls on the turn).

ETA: The SPR is 5.5 and we're OOP; the pot control train left preflop, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Absolutely a bet for value in this spot. I'd probably go $40. We are folding if V1 raises us. I'd think about calling V2 but probably would fold if he raised as well.

Our line in general should be b/f flop, b/f safe turns (c/f bad turns) and c/c safe rivers (c/f unsafe rivers).

This hand feels like a textbook RIO situation with that board and all of those players. I agree with C/R and if you get called just C/F unless the board pairs and doesn't improve the straight/flush draws and you can get away with calling a decent sized river bet. If any villain calls your C/R and they don't bet the turn then you're probably pretty safely avoiding a higher overpair or a set.

A hand like this I'm just not seeing how it can be profitable in the long run unless you can get people to fold the flop somehow (which is iffy).

I never said I was checking for pot control.

What is wrong with this concept (bolded) if you believe your hand has marginal equity, i.e. two streets of value at best? I'm not advocating C/F the flop.

Bet/evaluate $35-40

Grunch

B/F 40, maybe 35 if villains are elastic with weak 1-pair hands. Keep firing on turns that aren't 8, 3, 6, or spades. V1 has shown he'll continue wide on flops and won't get aggressive with draws or strong non-nut made hands, so if he raises your hand is close to dead >98% of the time, especially given your image.

Check/call flop. Check/fold turn or river. Get to showdown as cheaply as possible.

Think about our opponents calling ranges as an EP raiser with a tight image. Its either pocket pairs, suited connectors, Suited broadways and Ax suited. Way too many hands that either flopped the joint or flopped 50% equity against us. The hands that flopped equity can easily blow us off the hand if they raise the flop, not to mention steal on most turn or river run outs since our range is so easily capped to an overpair.

This flop is literally the grossest for our hand. c/calling will keep our range a little wider and make opponents who hold pair + combo draws a little less likely to stab on scary looking turn cards since they won't be sure if we hit spades, hit a straight, hit an A, hit a K, etc.

I don't think we should be thinking about losing the minimum, but instead we should be thinking about winning the maximum. We have JJ on a 456 board with only 3 players in the hand, some of them sticky.

But you are also allowing the flop to be checked through.

Leading flop is good against the 2009 passive calling stations who have hands like 69o in their preflop and flop calling ranges. There are too many hand ranges we beat to not value bet them to death.

In today's games, most MAWG's play a pretty TAG game. Because of this, we aren't doing that well against their preflop calling ranges and flop continuing range. We get ourselves into a nice RIO spot where the more $ that goes into the pot, the less likely our hand is good, with almost no equity to improve.

Betting the flop will win us the pot if we run into the very bottom of our opponent's range. Yes, betting gets us called by combo draws, but then we pretty much have to check/f all turns and rivers since our hand can't stand any more heat. This leaves us way too wide open to be exploited. Plus, we allow the combo draws to reach their equity by the river so we really didn't gain any "value" by betting the flop since 50% of the time we will win at showdown and 50% of the time we will lose. But since we are OOP, the times we win we will win less and the times we lose our opponent will win more from us because sometimes we will pay off on the river when they will never pay us off on a 2nd street if they miss their draw.

If we are going to bet the flop, only to c/f on future streets, we might as well just play ZOMG "pot control" and check the flop.

It is like you didn't even read the OP. V1 has called our preflop raises with Q6s and 57s. Why are we automatically assuming that here he has to have the nuts when he calls?

And no, we shouldn't just check the flop because we might c/f future streets. We can be ahead of a hand on the flop and drawing dead against that same hand on the turn. That's its how poker works.

Please keep the thread related to the HH. Preferably sticking to the questions by the OP instead of break down analysis of each post itt.

Anyhow...

If we cannot bet with JJ on this board, when can we bet?

Do we only bet when we flop set or only when board is rainbow and unconnected?

If we only bet when we flop set, why not just play JJ as 22 and limp pre?

If we only bet when board is rainbow and unconnected, how are we going to get value? Or is winning the pot sufficient because JJ is such high RIO hand?

I had to google MAWG because for some reason I wasn't cluing in on it at first. I saw what it meant but also noticed all the first few google images were John Candy as Barf in Spaceballs. Laughed pretty hard at that.

Anyway, bet flop and reevaluate turn if called. Our V1 checked behind the 3rd nut flush on the river in one of your example hands so there isn't much danger of him stealing the pot from us without a better hand. V2 from our experience so far isn't likely to be any different, as is the standard in LLSNL. Charge the draws now and see what comes.

Sigh...

It doesn't make sense to blindly check call when we have no idea what the sizing is or who is doing the betting.

Here is the problem with check call:

V1 will always check all hands that we currently beat and bet all hands we lose to. So we have to be getting pretty decent prices when we peel a bet. Does he even bet TT?

Anyway, check seems optimal to me here. Overpairs hate coordinated flops most of the time.

Checking here and evaluating. Not a very good flop for us. If v1 bets and v2 folds I may fold depending on sizing but I do like call if I anticipate it going hu to the turn.

If v1 checks v2 bets I might be in for a raise but sizing is obv key

If v1 bets and v2 calls it's an on call but that ain't gonna happen much