*grunch

Betting 40 seems ok here if you are beat by V1 you will probably get raised since he has a player behind him and a wet board. So, if he calls he is probably on some kind of a draw. Now if V2 overcalls, you are very likely against two drawing hands and the turn can tell you what to do.
Bad turn cards would be any spade, any 3, 6, 7 and 8
Somewhat bad cards might be any 4, 5 or A
So in case of two of them calling 40, I would bet a non spade 9,T,J,Q or K OTT
In case of just one of them calling OTF, then bet any non spade 4,5,9,T,J,Q,K or A OTT

If you get raised OTT, then it comes to whether or not the guy who raises you is capable of raising his draw OTT or did he catch a second pair or trips while going for a straight and/or a flush

It looks like you are committed after your turn bet, but if they never raise with a naked draw , then maybe you are actually not committed despite the stack sizes and you can bet fold (This way you would lose 50% of the stack so it looks bad, but on the other hand you secure the already hefty pot when they fold)

For discussion ... based on the ranges below, Hero is much better shape than I originally thought ...

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Equity Win Tie
MP2 65.83% 65.38% 0.45% { JdJs }
CO 17.22% 16.48% 0.74% { JJ-22, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, AsTs, KsTs, QsTs, Ks9s, Qs9s, Ts9s, Qs8s, Ts8s, 9s8s, Ts7s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 7s6s, As5s, 7s5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, 87o, 76o, 65o, 54o }
BU 16.95% 16.55% 0.40% { TT-22, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, AsTs, KsTs, QsTs, Qs9s, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, 87o, 76o, 65o, 54o }

It's not just about the board, it's about having 3 more villains with you on a wet board.

You're a small underdog with 2 cards to go to hands like As8s when you're heads up. You add in a 3rd hand like 7x9x and your equity goes down another 15%+ and you're an even bigger underdog. That's only talking about the combo draws. You also have higher overpairs to worry about as well as sets and 2p. Basically, you're only beating top/second pair with no draw, and you're moderately ahead of a pair with a gutshot draw. You're practically flipping with someone who has a pair and a 3 or a 7.

So yeah, there's a lot of reasons to give up on this hand very quickly depending on what happens after the flop. If you can get a c/r and take it down right then and there, then great. Outside of that I'm laying down to almost any bet on the turn.

To bet or c/r the flop, yes.

Once someone calls you and their range narrows, you are probably not feeling very good.

In both examples OP posted the V called with flush draws in position. The V basically owned the OP since OP was not willing to fire a double barrel and V got to realize his equity. The V didn't need to steal in either situation since he turned and rivered showdown value.

Because hero is not willing to double barrel, hero is lighting money on fire with a flop bet because Villains know that they can get to the river for free, plus steal the pot when OP checks. Unless this game is super weak tight, it doesn't take the sharpest tool in the shed to bet a third spade when the flush comes in, even if they are on a straight draw, knowing that hero is capped at one pair.

This is all on top of the fact that we are often BEHIND here after the flop hits against 3 opponents.


This is classic RIO. Hero's hand is face up. Hero is OOP. Board is coordinated. Board hits our opponents pre flop calling ranges. Hero is willing to give up to aggression. All of these factors lead us to not want to invest very much in this pot.

At certain aggressive tables that always go to showdown I would have no shame in check/folding the flop. The only reason I advocate a c/c on this particuliar flop is because I don't feel like our opponents are aggressive enough to double/triple barrel bluff us on the turn and river. So if someone takes a weak stab on the flop and we call, we can win at showdown if their hand doesn't improve. They will be less likely to try a semibluff because they won't be sure what kind of hand we have and we have shown a willingness to "cawl".

Please keep the facts straight. There are a total of 3 players (Hero, with two villains).

The board is not as wet as if it was 89Tss. Let's keep the monsters underneath the bed.

Agreed. There is nothing in the OP to indicate we are going to be semi-bluffed. If we get raised we can comfortably fold, but it sounds like these villains will passively chase their draws.

Considering all of the draws have good equity against us, this is actually a good spot to over bet the flop. A hand like AQ has 15 outs to improve on the turn (32%), while A7 has 18 outs (38%).

If we want to give those two hands direct odds to call we should bet $45 and $70 respectively. We can split it down the middle and bet about $60. We will occasionally value town ourself when we are forced to bet/fold but we also get max value on our vulnerable but often best hand.

We can also stay on the larger end on the flop, $70-80 which will set up a roughly PSB turn shove on safe turns.

I didn't like the idea of bet/fold. I didn't want to get raised off the best hand, especially by V2, and this flop has been in V1's calling range against me (and on the BTN, I think V2's, also). I kind of like the idea of the over-bet, but that would be even worse if I were raised. I need to think about that play more often. Also, once money goes in, a lot of turns suck for me.

Anyway:

Flop ($50) 4s5h6s

I check, V1 bets $35, V2 calls. Hero?

I'm strongly against a flop check but now that we're here we might as well mash the FPS button and raise to $125-150 setting up a turn shove.

It goes without saying we are committed to our hand with this raise so all aboard the variance train choo chooooooooo.

Flop check is bad. Now that we've done it and an ultra passive player who once checked back a flush against us has led out and gotten called I'm actually a fan of folding. We may be wrong sometimes but this is quickly turning into a multiway pot against V's with strong ranges and I don't see either of them having much of a fold button.

Bet/fold definitely best on this flop unless we are against aggressive players which we aren't.

I'm strongly FOR a flop check and I agree with the check raise to $140ish. IN my book, that's the whole reason for the flop check. To make these guys pay dearly to realize their equity.

You mean paying a big fat $0 when they check behind?

This whole plan is suicidal. Why are we trying to get stacks in on the flop. Anything we are getting in stacks against is flipping against us or has us dominated. We are playing mouth breathers here, just bet for value people!

Really don't like the flop check vs these villains. b/f flop and most turns for value vs two villains that will not put us in tough spots (nor fold) with their draws. River is then most likely a c/c or c/f depending on runout.

I didnt think they would. I was right <GASP>

Nothing wrong with your plan. We just have a completely different view of the game.

That's the problem with your entire approach to this game. You are only capable of considering a fraction of possible outcomes.

It works when opponents act how you expect them to behave, or aka positive variance, and rest of the time, you simply ignore them as negative variance.

Poker is not black or white, right or wrong, something you seem very incapable of understanding.

Do you think they are literally never checking any hand or do you think it is just unlikely? If they did check what sort of hands would they be checking? I imagine they would include a lot of over cards to our jacks right?

This is pure gold coming from you. In every one of your posts you act like you are 100% right and there is no other possibility other than whatever you advise to do. YOu act like you are 100% right every time.....of course now you admit that poker is not black or white...right or wrong. Amazing! Whats even more amazing is that you never actually advise anyone to do anything. You just sit back and tell them what they did was wrong.

I base my actions on the outcome that I expect to happen based on my experience. Several things could happen. There could be a bet and a raise. There could be a bet and a call. There could be a bet and a fold. There could be no bets at all.

If we played this hand a million times we could probably come up with a percentage of how many times each will happen, but since we are playing THIS hand THIS time only one time, we have to play do the best we can. Being OOP sucks. The best way for me to get more info on which scenario will play out is to check and let it play out before I act. I suspect there will be a bet, but I dont know if there will also be a call, a fold or a raise. I want to see which of those scenarios happens before I make a decision. Then I have more info.

If it checks thru and the turn gets uglier, who cares. I can easily check fold and pretend I had nothing. Its not a big loss.

After the bet and call, honestly, I would sometimes just fold depending on my read. In this hand with very little read (I dont call the little bit that was given by OP much of a read), I would check raise because I think I am ahead. If hero had bet, odds are probably 75% that they both call and we would be no better off than if we flat call now, which I would never do.

I explained myself further in the post above, but yes, I think its unlikely to check thru. And if it does and the turn is ugly, I can check/fold with no problems. That would not be a horrible outcome considering that this board sucks for our hand OOP against 2 villains. This is going to be a high variance hand no matter what if we continue past the flop.

+1

+1
rec vs pro

If "rec" means I win as much or more than anyone else, than yeah, Im a rec player. People always mock what they dont understand.

I know big winners who would bet this flop and be willing to get all in.
I know big winners who would check/fold
I know big winners who would bet/fold.

You dont know everything and if you ever realize that, which is highly unlikely, you will be a much better player and person.

I was with Mike on this flop. I am not a pro, but I don't see the point of betting this flop into sticky players knowing we have to fold if they raise and knowing at least half of the deck will be bad for us.

I really like the check/raise better than the bet/fold.

However, I decided to just fold. I didn't like my spot vs. their ranges. I did not want to gii on flop w/ JJ, and as stated, I don't like most turns.

If anyone in this thread acts as if he knows everything by being irrationally defensive, it is you, MikeStarr.

All you ever use to argue any of your position is your "experience" and nothing more.

Poker is a math based game, maybe you could try using some of it.

Mostly grunched. Read just enough to see there's debate on whether to cbet. This seems like an insane argument. This is a great board for JJ. You're getting called by a ton of worse hands right now that might not call the turn. Bet now. Are either of these players tricky? I don't think so. Bet fold and it's not even close.