heros image is young Asian reg, playing tag but they might be giving me less credit bc been getting more active in last orbit. $350
villain is a decent older reg, can hand read well but plays too many hands pf.
prob not too big of a mistake for him since the $ prob doesn't matter too much and he makes pretty solid postflop decisions. $300
hero open raises in HJ with JJ to $12
villain calls in CO
bb calls.
$20 was 2/3 pot, I thought that was pretty standard, I could see reasons for betting more though. and I didn't have any specific reads on how he called otf. I put him on an A or flush draw I couldn't tell which he had
These are standard bet/fold spots that we MUST bet for value against fishy typical 1/2 players. I am almost never checking this turn behind even though the flush hits because the flush is a pretty small part of his range here. You can still get value from TON'S of worse hands so we must bet around 2/3 pot. I am betting 2/3 pot on the river on any non diamonds easy game.
Bga, were OOP in this hand I think you think were IP bc u said your not checking behind.. its on us first OTT.
And yea Joe I like your reasoning, I've always calculated the pot after rake and bet accordingly, maybe I shouldn't, I haven't heard much advice on this important variable
Ok so if he rr turn what's our action and if he flats and river is blank what's our plan. If we bet 2/3 pot ott are we only getting action from AQ AK and flushes vs this good thinking player?
Knowing the suits of he cards OTF is imperative here. Also, CBetting 2/3rds of the pot as a CBet is "standard", not 1/3rd. As played I'd fire OTT for 60% of the pot as standard, but the devil's in the details.
b/f turn (depending on raise sizing), 5's are likely raising on the flop to protect against diamonds and to get value from the strong aces and AJ in your range.
Now its true the flush is a small part of his range, and I would be highly likely to put him on AK-A9 type hand. However, at the same time, if he plays alot of hands as you said, then suited hands are very much a possibility...these type of players will call preflop any type of suited one gapper, two gapper, etc. You might be giving him to much credit as a "thinking competent reg" if you also say he plays to many hands pre- one of the major reasons a poker player loses money is simply playing too many hands.
I really dont think a check for pot control would be that terrible here. If we bet out, then he raises it, we haveto fold. A check call allows us to see a river at a reasonable price to see if board pairs, and then evaluate after one more street of information, without the pot getting too large. Im not saying its the perfect solution, but I gota say Im leaning towards it...pot control is the answer sometimes.
I definitely play pot control in this situation OOP, especially against a player who plays a lot of marginal hands preflop, which greatly increases the flush part of his range. We are nearing the pot commitment threshold. I c/c.
My plan for river: On diamond river, c/f, your hand is now pretty much garbage. On boat river, if he bet turn, c/minraise. If he checked turn, bet small, all in if raised. Any other river, if he bet the turn, c/c small bets, c/f big bets (like near pot size or bigger). If he checked the turn, b/c small raises, b/f big raises.
whats your guys default line here and how will we react to a reraise if we bet for value and if flatted whats our plan for river..
That's exactly why I don't like a value bet on the turn, it's hard to make a +EV plan for his various responses. Hence the pain of being OOP. A value bet gets us into dangerous pot commitment territory with a marginal hand, making decisions difficult or arbitrary.
