$1/2 NL ($300 Max)
Saturday afternoon

Hero 24 y.o. (covers): I've been at the table for about an hour or so. I haven't played too many hands, as I'm still getting a feel for the table. But I've been aggressive/active in the hands I've played. My guess is that villain views me as competent. He has no reason to think I'm particularly good at poker.

Villain 28-30 y.o. ($250): He's probably the only player at the table who is decent. The rest of the table is just playing typical weak-passive donkey poker. He seems to be picking his spots PF. But his bet-sizing is too small post-flop, so I wouldn't say he's an advanced player. I've seen him c-bet $25 into $70 MW pots a few times.


The hand:

Hero (HJ) is dealt J J

RandomDonkey limps for $2, Hero raises to $16, Villain (CO) flats, RandomDonkey folds.

Flop ($30):

8 7 2

Hero bets $25, Villain calls.

Turn ($80):
8

Hero bets $50, Villain calls.

River ($180):
7

Hero tanks for about 10 seconds, and looks at Villain's stack. Villain has two stacks of reds, totaling about $150-$160. He quickly combines one stack on top of the other one, forming one large stack, and says, "I thought maybe you wanted to see how much it is."

Hero?

Against a good/decent player I might have c/c Turn and lead River to see what happens. You had your only 'real foe' at this table call a decent raise. I want to slow down here and see his cards if I can ... another reason to check the Turn ... to see what he is all about here. Sure you may miss some value, but if you are going to be around for a bit, then I want some intel too.

AP you are now screwed I think into c/f or shove mode. He has seen you take way too long here for an 8x. I think he pounds you if you bet anything here. You can try to bet 60 but I wouldnt do it unless you are calling a shove.

I put him on QQ-99/9T here ... most of which you beat. If he has 8x or 7x then you learned an expensive leasson. Bet 60 as a blocker bet and be ready to call the shove. GL

The range you can still valuetown is looking awfully narrow.. 99,TT and maaaybe a sticky small pair. Assuming he folds 33-66 to a shove (or earlier in the hand) I'd be thinking along these lines:

12 Combos of 99/TT (BET)
4 Combos of T9s (C/C)
3 Combos of 98s (C/F)
8 Combos of 88,77,22 (C/F)
Call it ~6 Combos of 56s, T9o, and other garbage I beat (C/C)

His river antics make me want to discount 99/TT, but I'm not sure what else to read into it.

You also need at least a few made hands in your river checking range here against a decent player. This one seems like a good candidate to me. So that leaves me with check/eval. I like the way you played it thus far, and would be more inclined to call a quick shove than a Hollywood.

I guess he can have a few more random 7x and 8x combos too here, but it's really hard to say without more insight into villains pre-flop game. Either way, I'm definitely not leading out on the river.

Grunching ...

I think this is a check. You are beat by QQ/8x/22 which will likely bet. TT may, 99/T9/FDs very unlikely to bet. I glean from his post-flop sizing he leans passive, so I'm likely folding to a bet.

Check the river and either call the bet/shove or win at showdown if he does not have it in him.

If we're check/calling... what kind of range are we putting villain on?

Air of one type or another. He either has face cards or a pocket pair that was killed by board pairing twice. This guy is most likely checking behind you, but there is a chance he will bluff and that will be the only way to get extra money. Showing chips (and especially stacking them and acting like he is ready to call) is generally a sign of weakness on a younger player. That plus action as described likely = you being way good.

This is a spot where its pretty unlikely that anything you beat is going to bet here. But he could call with lots of other stuff.

b/f $75 here and not think twice about it.

Yea my instinct was to b/f. Then I though about shoving.

Then I wimped out and checked

Villain instantly checks back and shows TT.

He says he probably would have called a bet.

His antics might make me want to shove here. He is acting strong, stacking his stack up big and grabbing it as if he is going to call any bet. This usually means please please please check I have SDV.

Anyway I still think it's a check here the only value hands you could target are 99 and TT. And if he is good as you've pegged him he is probably folding both to a shove. If I am b/f I would go small like 50ish to get called by 99,TT stubborn A high. But still if he's good he should be folding these to 3 bullets. I probably check this here

I think the 8BB pre-flop raise makes a call from 98/76 type hands a lot less likely and pairs a lot more likely. After the flop and turn calls overcards are extremely unlikely as there's no flush draw on the flop.

Because the board double paired a flopped set is also much less likely, so TT and 99 are definitely the most likely hands. But he could still definitely have the goods or a missed straight draw which makes your river decision very tough.

You could've possibly checked the turn, but if he has a draw you could be facing turn and river barrels and still have no idea where you are.

His actions to me do seem to intentionally signal a willingness to call any bet, so I think that still makes TT and 99 most likely.

On the whole I think betting 65-75 and folding to a shove does the best job of balancing getting max value, blocking bluffs, and minimizing losses when you're beat. But it's a confusing situation, and in the heat of the moment I think I'd often check and re-evaluate if he bets. Really gross spot to be in.

btw (and of course this depends on flop texture, stack sizes, hand strength, and opponent tendencies) there's nothing wrong with 1/3 pot cbets. On dry boards it often makes a lot of sense whether you have the board crushed or are just taking a cheap shot. And against tight-passive opponents frequent smallish bets are a good way of taking down a lot of pots without too much risk.