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JJ in middle position JJ in middle position

01-06-2018 , 09:49 PM
Hey guys, haven't posted here much but long time member. Let me know if I need to change formatting, etc.. I'm just wondering how best to play this hand as we've flopped top set on a coordinated board in a raised lot with lots of callers. Flop SPR is about 2.

Hero (160) - Been at table for 1 hour, TAG but losing image as I've 3 bet and had to fold flop a ccouple times already.

V1- unknown villain, just sat down but definitely not a reg.

V2- TAG regular, fairly straightforward player and probably a long term winner.

OTTH:

V1 calls UTG, Hero raise to 15 w JJ , V2 calls MP, V3 calls CO,V4 calls OTB.

Flop (70) 9 10 J
V1 checks, Hero???
JJ in middle position Quote
01-06-2018 , 10:05 PM
$45. Obv call any raises. Shove any non-Q turn.
JJ in middle position Quote
01-07-2018 , 02:15 AM
Start to pile money into the pot, its multiway where we have topset and our opponents can call bets with all sort of holdings or even raise you on the flop.

Around 45-50 sounds good to me too. None of the two pair combos is going anywhere, neither is Qx and if we are lucky somebody could even have something like a set of 9 here.

The last thing we want to do here is to check and to give all our opponents a chance to take a card off and suck out on us for free.
JJ in middle position Quote
01-07-2018 , 04:52 AM
$145 behind.......I guess $45 now & $100 on the turn. Somebody probably has KQ and another guy has T9 & the board is going to run out 9...9...which is why this is a thread.

Just kidding. I'm never folding & always looking to GII on the turn with a short stack.
JJ in middle position Quote
01-07-2018 , 05:03 AM
Our stack size relative to the pot is awkward.

I check and hope that someone with a Qx bets so we can go for the C/R jam. Just about all plays are viable other than check/fold. Betting small to induce and to leave us a pot size bet on the turn is also an option.

p.s. please provide villain's stack sizes when posting
JJ in middle position Quote
01-07-2018 , 11:03 AM
If Hero bets $45 & gets raised all-in by KQ, he would be putting $100 into a total pot of $360, or 27.8% of the money, with 35% equity. Winning!
JJ in middle position Quote
01-07-2018 , 01:20 PM
Thanks for the feedback so far. Everything this far seems pretty clear. I will provide V's stack sizes in the future. V1 started w 210, V2 w 160

Flop (70)

V1 checks, H bets 40, V2 calls, V1 calls
My real question is on the turn...

Turn (190): 7

V1 quickly bets 50, Hero has 100 left and V2 looks like he is going to shove his $100 in behind me. I'm assuming we just shove and know we need to pair the river. It's 50 to win 240 at this point with more going in behind, but I don't know if we're ever ahead here.
JJ in middle position Quote
01-07-2018 , 01:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogyong
Our stack size relative to the pot is awkward.

I check and hope that someone with a Qx bets so we can go for the C/R jam. Just about all plays are viable other than check/fold. Betting small to induce and to leave us a pot size bet on the turn is also an option.

p.s. please provide villain's stack sizes when posting
Yeah since we're OOP I like checking. The flop is 5 ways and pretty wet. Someone will take a stab at it and since we're short stacked, raising allin should induce someone to call.
JJ in middle position Quote
01-07-2018 , 02:11 PM
I don't see any point in checking. I doubt hands that are not calling are betting, so I don't think we have to risk a free card in order to capture aggression.

I'd typically bet 50 on a flop this wet, since I'm firmly committed and there are lots of hands that can call, but it doesn't really make much difference here.

In the moment, I'm calling the turn without much thought, planning to call off the rest either when V2 shoves the turn or V1 shoves the river for 55 more.

To back that up...

I'm planning this around putting 105 in, since I'm not folding for the last 55 OTR.

Worst case, V2 folds and we put in 105 to win 295 as a 3.6:1 dog. That's obviously not good, but it's not terrible and there are some mitigating factors. There's some chance an 8 gives us a chop, and there's a very small chance we're actually ahead. There's also a small chance V1 doesn't put the last 55 in when we miss. (There are rumors that every now and then an LLSNL V will play slightly less than perfectly.)

More likely, we put in 105 to win 400 when V2 jams. Even if he only calls, we're getting the right price. I don't see much reason to jam ourselves, since we'd like V2 to do that and sweeten the pot for us, but I doubt it matters much whether we do or not.
JJ in middle position Quote
01-07-2018 , 02:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jace33
Thanks for the feedback so far. Everything this far seems pretty clear. I will provide V's stack sizes in the future. V1 started w 210, V2 w 160

Flop (70)

V1 checks, H bets 40, V2 calls, V1 calls
My real question is on the turn...

Turn (190): 7

V1 quickly bets 50, Hero has 100 left and V2 looks like he is going to shove his $100 in behind me. I'm assuming we just shove and know we need to pair the river. It's 50 to win 240 at this point with more going in behind, but I don't know if we're ever ahead here.
Put the rest of your chips in.
JJ in middle position Quote
01-07-2018 , 07:47 PM
A call/shove is probably break even.

We are not always against made straights. Sometimes they'll have QX. But the board is going to pair about 20% of the time and if V2 shoves, it looks like our pot odds will be about 20% (100/490).

Its by no means a slam dunk clear spot. We really need V2's chips in the pot to continue profitably.

Last edited by Nogyong; 01-07-2018 at 08:16 PM.
JJ in middle position Quote
01-07-2018 , 08:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Case2
I don't see any point in checking. I doubt hands that are not calling are betting, so I don't think we have to risk a free card in order to capture aggression.
I get what you're saying and there is merit to it. It partly depends how often we think they bet Qx in this spot.

But if it checks through it's not the end of the world.

If a K, Q, 8, 7 or spade peels off then the pot is a more manageable size for us to be able to call one bet.

Also, if the board pairs, we'll have a well disguised hand capable of getting more value.
JJ in middle position Quote
01-09-2018 , 08:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jace33
Thanks for the feedback so far. Everything this far seems pretty clear. I will provide V's stack sizes in the future. V1 started w 210, V2 w 160

Flop (70)

V1 checks, H bets 40, V2 calls, V1 calls
My real question is on the turn...

Turn (190): 7

V1 quickly bets 50, Hero has 100 left and V2 looks like he is going to shove his $100 in behind me. I'm assuming we just shove and know we need to pair the river. It's 50 to win 240 at this point with more going in behind, but I don't know if we're ever ahead here.
Let's give both Vs 1 of your outs to a full house. One has 98 & the other T8 & both of them have shoved before it's your turn to act. That would put their $210 & $160 & your $15 in the pot = $385 & you're putting in $195 for a total pot of $580, with your $195 being 33.6% of the money with only 20.6% equity.

It doesn't get any worse than that.

Give 1 player KQ & you have 21.4% equity

Give 1 player KQ and the other 86 & you have 23.8% equity.

Even the best scenario doesn't give you the right price to call with top set on this board.

Can anyone say that they know someone who can/has folded top set in a 1/2NL game?
JJ in middle position Quote
01-09-2018 , 08:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt
with your $195 being 33.6% of the money
Zunelt, something is amiss with your calculations. It looks like it's 100 for a chance to win 390 more (with hero's 100 being around 20% of the money).
JJ in middle position Quote
01-09-2018 , 10:38 AM
As played, which is fine except I would have gone $45 or $50 on flop, just shove the turn. I don't see another option except to fold the turn, which is gross. GII now while you might have some chance of being good.
JJ in middle position Quote

      
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