Table: loose 1-2 table. Everyone is very deep. I have smallest stack with 400bbs, largest stack has 3k.

Eff 800 pre flop.

Hero: at this table I'm playing quite nitty, 3 orbits into the game only played 2 hands.

Villain: Smart thinking player who I rarely see make mistakes. Very solid overall, generally plays deeper 2/5 games.

Hand:

Hero: JJ in CO
Limps to me, I bet 14
BTN calls
SB (villain) raise to 53
Hero: calls
BTN: calls

I misplayed Jacks 2 days ago by not 4b/f OOP and it was really stuck in my head so I thought for about 15 seconds here about making 155 and then folding to raise/shove, however, because I'm in position I decide to just call.

FLOP: 9h, 2h, 3d

SB (vill): Bets 100 into 171
Hero: ?

Raise/call? Fold ever an option here?

It's pretty rare this villain will get involved with me OOP when he knows I'm playing a tight range but he can definitely have variety of hh combos and obvs 99+.

I don't 4bet here but AP you can't fold flop unless you are just going to fold every non-J turn and you think he barrels turn even when he misses. And if that's the line I'm taking, I flat the 3bet and set mine.

Since you called pre-flop, you must have concluded you were ahead of his range. You weren't set-mining with Jacks. The flop is unlikely to have hit either of you. So you're still ahead of his range, since he's going to C-bet nearly 100% of the time on this flop. Call and see what happens on the turn.

Flatting here. Flatting most turns and folding to a third barrell if unimproves

I think folding turn is better.

Tough spot.

Against this particular villain, I like the 4bet pre. He is a thoughtful player used to playing deep 2/5 games where 3betting is going to be far more common. In a usual 1/2 game against a usual 1/2 villain, I flat but against this opponent I expect he will barrel away on flop, turn, and possibly even river with two overs if he reads weakness/hesitation. He is good enough to realize he can push you off 1010, JJ, or even QQ here with a triple barrel.

Best to avoid this situation altogether with a 4bet pre.

As played, I fold flop. I'd typically never do that but against a sharp opponent fully capable of barreling away the turn with AA or air this deep, this is a bad spot. We are essentially calling the flop hoping opponent will check/fold turn. If opponent doesn't check/fold turn, we are in no man's land with a bluff catcher in a rapidly bloating pot vs highly capable villain.

If this is the case, why not just let him barrel and call down?

4-bet folding seems really bad vs such an aggressive good player.

Either we have enough equity to call down vs his range or we don't. I agree it's hard to tell, but it can't be both ways.

I don't think we have enough equity to call down vs his range. That's why I advocate folding the flop. I'm not stacking off 400bb on a bluff catcher. Maybe JJ is good on the flop, maybe it isn't. We are already feeling lost and that will only get worse on the turn.

If we call the $100 the pot is $371. If a blank falls on the turn and villain barrels again, do we call? If any heart, Queen, King, or Ace falls on the turn, do we call?

We ceded control of the hand when we flatted pre. That's why I 4bet/fold this hand. If Villain is bold enough to 5bet bluff me (not likely), so be it. As played, fold flop.

You can mix in some preflop 4b/fs, but flatting should be the majority play especially if BTN is fishy.

OTF, Call and see a turn. This is a really light board for our range, so it's gonna be hard to fold most turns against a smart aggro player who doesn't think this is huge money. Then again, his flop sizing either means his range is relatively narrow or that he's not as good as much of a thinking player as we give him credit for.

But you're advocating to 4-bet preflop because you're scared of being bluffed off your hand.

I'm just saying that either he barrels or he doesn't. Being scared of being bluffed is not a good reason to raise, it's a good reason to call.

Flatting a 3-bet in position does not cede control of the hand, you are still very much in control and get to see your opponent act twice on the flop and turn for the same price as 4-betting pre.

I don't see much difference between someone being able to barrel three streets with air and someone willing to 5-bet pre as a bluff.

Reason for calling the flop is no different than calling preflop, right? Can't see him not c-betting at it. Or the turn. Or the river. Raise/fold.

If V is really good, he is going to own us if we don't hit a J on the turn. A heart might slow him down if we call flop, though.

I think I call flop and see what happens on turn.

Of course, we still have a player to act -- does it look as if he's given up?

A lot of people in this thread are worried about being owned. What does that even mean?

Either villain is bluffing turn/river too much and we can call down profitably or he is not bluffing enough and we can fold turn. Why would he own us?

If we're so worried about being owned we shouldn't even be at this table.

Let's accept for the moment that this is a smart, thinking, 2/5 player. My first question is how much does he know about Hero's play. You hint that you've played before. If he's smart and thinking, he's discounting what he's seeing right now.

If the answer is that you've watched him play, but never played against him, then a smart, thinking player is going to have you pegged as a nit. You're only playing 6-10% of hands. Your range is going to be tight. He should be thinking that you're not going fold a lot of your raising range this deep, so it would be a bad play to 3bet light. So his range is going to be pretty tight as well. I don't think you'll see him 3bet 99 and TT here because they have too much value and he won't want to turn them into bluffs. They have great set mining value against your continuing range on the turn because he should know that nits will never stop pounding with an over pair.

Therefore, I'd call the 3bet with JJ and call the cbet since he's going to do it with his entire range, including AK and AQ.

The more fundamental question is why are you at this table? It is highly unlikely that you just happen to have the short stack at 400BB with a capped buy in even at 150BB. If it is an "unlimited" or match stack buy in, then I can understand why your 2/5 regular is playing. This is going to attract the best players in your room. It should be obvious why you don't want to play at a table with the best players in your room. I'd move, even if I believed I was the best player in the room.

I think you're very much misreading my posts, or maybe not reading them closely.

JJ is a bluff catcher here. I've clearly said villain can have two overs or AA in this spot. I think it's likely he will play both the same way and at least barrel two streets if not three with both a bluff and a made hand. You advocate folding turn if they continue. So I don't understand why we are calling the flop to fold the turn as you suggest.

You're advocating putting another $100 in the pot on the flop, bloating it to $371, and folding to any turn card. I disagree. Under that scenario, the only way we win the hand is if:

1. Villain has been bluffing all along (solid chance this isn't the case and he has QQ, KK, or AA)
2. No heart, no queen, no king, no ace hits (all terrible cards for us, around 35% chance one of those falls on the turn)
3. A blank comes and villain, who 3bet OOP and bet out flop, simply decides to give up on turn and check/fold it

If we are in control of the hand, why are we calling flop and folding turn if a blank comes? If we are good on the flop, why aren't we still good on the turn?

It sucks to fold an overpair here, but it sucks even more to put in 20% of our stack and fold to a turn scare card or blank, or stack off 400bb on a bluff catcher vs sophisticated opponent.

Grunch.

Do you have any 3b history with V (or has he seen any others 3b you)? Does he think you're more likely to fold to a 3b, call, or RR? If you call, do you play fit/fold after the flop?

Some thoughts...

We're slightly behind V's value 3b range (if it's, say, TT+, AQs we have 44% equity). But V might occasionally 3b light, so we're probably about even with his entire range.

Our hand is unlikely to improve. Overcards to our jacks can come, scaring us. But those cards might also be scare cards to V.

Stacks are deep. If all the monies go in, we're probably not winning.

We'd really like to get to a showdown with a reasonable pot size.

We don't want to encourage V to bluff since we won't be really comfortable calling.

V is competent, so is capable bluffing, but I think he's not likely to 3-barrel air.

V is probably already discounting KK+ and maybe QQ and AK based on our failure to 4b pre (though he's not discounting them completely).

I don't think we can fold the flop; V's range is too wide.

My plan would be something like call flop, hope to check back turn, but fold if he bets again. Call a reasonable river bet (up to the pot, say).

ETA:
I can also see calling flop, calling turn, folding river. That might actually be better, if we actually have the discipline to fold the river.

I think Venice' range for V is probably better than mine, though V's (even good ones) are subject to the vagaries of small sample sizes (meaning his read of us may not be accurate). That puts us farther behind.

With respect to the "if we're good on the flop, why aren't we good on the turn", the answer is that with each bet of V we gain more information. As V continues to shovel money into the pot, unless we can say he bluffs exactly as much as he value bets, his range gets better. The actual cards haven't changed, of course, but our estimate of his cards has changed.

A read that V is capable of barreling 3 streets with air is not even nearly the same as a read that he is barreling 3 streets of air. In fact, if he barrels three times with the same frequency he value bets 3 times, he's not a very good player.

I think raising the flop is a bad idea. Would he expect you to raise here with AA or KK after just flatting pre? (I don't think he would.) Would he think you might bluff raise AK before giving up? (I think he might.) Calling keeps our range roughly as wide as it was preflop and denies him information.

To win this hand, we need all of the following to take place:

1. Villain is bluffing.

2. Button folds behind us on the flop. If button calls or raises, the hand is over for us.

3. A non-scare card falls on the turn (no hearts, no queens, no kings, no aces). That's about 1/3 of the deck we can't see.

4. Once the blank falls on the turn, the villain - who 3bet us OOP and c-bet the flop, and who is a good, talented deep stack player - gives up on the hand. He does this despite the fact that we are essentially playing our JJ, which is a bluff catcher that will relent to further pressure, face up at this point.

5. If we check back turn, still likely need no queen, no king, or no ace to hit the river.

If any of 1-4 does not happen, we lose/fold the hand after committing at minimum 75bb. We are also probably not winning if 5 doesn't happens.

The odds of everything working out in our favor are slim. If we fold the flop, we lose the minimum and move on the next hand. Agree with Venice that sitting at this game in general seems less then optimal. On to the next table and hand.

I think that's a little overstating it.

Agree, we need V to be bluffing. Agree that if button does call behind us, our chances go down. But btn only called before, so he's denying a super premium hand and I expect him to mostly fold to a 3b and call.

But we're not done until we actually fold, which we shouldn't do without a bet. If a heart or scare card comes on the turn, and V checks, we might well still be good. We can check it back to induce another bluff on the river (which we then of course snap off) or we could actually bet it ourselves if we felt like turning our hand into a bluff.

Flush draws for either of us are unlikely on this action. An overcard to our J does not necessarily mean V has now hit his hand.

I would suggest that a smart, thinking player probably has us pegged as tight, but to decide we're a nit after only 30 hands would be overvaluing limited information. We could easily have had crap cards for the 9ish other hands we've had in LP.

I'm not ready to give up yet.

All of this is predicated on reads of V. I'm putting a good, thinking player as very possibly squeezing and cbetting here. If he thinks we're tight, we're more likely to have a good hand, but we're also more likely to cave to pressure post. If I'm wrong about that and he has only a value 3b range, my play is going to be wrong. But we can't *know* what his range is. I'm OK playing pre and the flop with a good hand and position.

Whether I move tables or not depends on the other players. If there are some nice, juicy targets, I don't mind someone better than I am also there.

What ranges do you think villain puts you and the other caller on? That's a big determinant for how I proceed in this hand. If he thinks you're flatting his 3-bet with a very strong range, including aces and kings, then I expect him to play much more honestly on the turn and river. In that case I think it's reasonable for you to flat the flop bet and fold to further aggression on most turns.

However, I think it's more likely that he expects you to always 4-bet your aces and kings. In that case I think he's much more likely to barrel multiple times with overs/air as well as a strong value range, and I would likely just fold to the flop bet or call down if I think my hand does well enough against his range.

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I'd call here, raise is too risky with a player left to act. If button folds I'd fold turn if bet to or bet turn if checked to and button folded (Unless A or K shows up then I check back). This is a board that we expect Villain to c-bet into, with your nitty image if he doesn't slow down on the turn after being called flop I'd expect to be beat. No reason to call preflop and fold out on flops like this, I'd see what action the turn brings.

Conjunction fallacy. We are poker players; we weigh possibilities by their probabilities, not by the sheer number of them.

With that in mind:

There's 18-21 combos in villain's range that are ahead of us in a COvBUvSB squeezed pot on a very favorable cbetting flop (we're ~15 combos from the top of our made hand range and half of LLSNL is hyperventilating).[1]

Lolwut? BTN has anywhere from 3-15 combos of better made hands. Him calling does not remotely end the hand for us.

We are playing NLHE so it's impossible for villain to hold AKQXhh. Only way the hand is over on these cards is if he barrels them with worse hands 100%, and if he's barreling hearts 100% then looooooollllllllll. That's so ******ed and is so naturally going to get owned by your overall strategy that you need not worry about how we play JJxx (though that strategy is so profoundly dumb that you could actually profitably shove with this hand lmao).

We're probably not folding a blank turn. If you think the post you're responding to suggests that, you should reread it. He was saying if a certain condition applies, then you should fold the turn and if that condition doesn't apply then you shouldn't fold it.

As for being face-up, if calling the flop turns your hand face-up, then this is a problem with how you're playing the rest of your range. I hope to lord christ on the cross you're not auto raising FDs on this flop, for example.

Further, it's interesting that you say that this turns our hand faceup (which implies that this is the only hand we're taking this line with) AND you recommend folding. Combine those two, and logically we get the conclusion that you don't have a calling range on this flop. I'd recommend against that.

Well, I wouldn't be overly concerned about a low heart once villain checks the turn. Again, Q+ are the ultimate trouble cards for us, but he's not going to autobet them (if nothing else, we still have some made hands beat).

I'm generally not overly concerned about having a chunk of the deck be bad for my "bluffcatchers"[2] as that's just the nature of bluffcatching. If we make our calling range lighter on these hands, then it's going to be heavier on hands that only improve on "scare" cards, which is even more problematic for reasons I'm not going to get into in this post.

Conclusion:

It's scary business calling 50bb bets with hands we aren't so sure is the best, but we have the requisite 30%+ ex-showdown equity IP with a hand this close to the top of possible hands on this particular board.

_____________

Footies:

[1]Granted, the fact that he's betting this huge has significant effects on his range in theory, (especially since I don't think any of the narrow betting range strategies make sense in this spot for villain unless BTN is a huge fish)

[2] The flop call isn't strictly a bluffcatch.

I'm in the four bet camp. A squeeze play from villain vs two deep players makes me thinks his range is wider than TT+ AK,AQ. Does hero have any info on BTN? I'd 4! to $150 and fold to shove.


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4bet pre is the default line, hand plays better in isolation than 3 way and his 3b range should be wide enough vs lp ranges that we can raise for pure value

I like raising the flop as played since we can rep a much wider and more difficult to read range and we are often ahead, 225

Note that I expect him to flat 0% of the time, so this raise is for protection rather than value but there are so many other hands in our value range and we should have air a small % of the time

Thanks to all for replies. I'm definitely in the 4b/f club pre.

However, some further info (sorry for delay)....I raised the flop to 250 on the basis of:

- V is going to barrel 70-80% of turns given history - he doesn't spew into pots or build large pots without a plan
- V knows me and has played with me enough to know he rarely makes OOP plays so aggressively
- If I just flat flop, how much will I have to call turn and river? My hand becomes v difficult to play then and I agree with people saying OTT I basically have bluff catcher when he barrels again.

My issue with my raise was stack size, once I raise to 250 I only had roughly 425 left less than 1 SPR.

Thoughts on my raise? What do I do if he flats this raise and shoves hearts OTT or an overcard? Can I ever call a shove OTF?

(hindsight I overall think calling flop was best option as it leaves my range a lot wider)

Thanks!

It's tough but r/f seems like the correct play otf but I haven't actually crunched the math.

He is never flat calling so we want to make this raise smallish, so 225 seems a lot better than 250 but again haven't done the math so can't say for sure