Would you open raise 99?
If you would open raise 99, how would you play the hand?

If the villain is a thinking player, he isn't just thinking about his hand, he's thinking about yours also. You say it was limped to you in CO. How many limps? If 3 limped ahead of you, then raising to $14 might seem weak, and villain could be squeezing.

This seems like a really deep table, to have $800 and be the small stack seems to be asking for trouble. A game that deep, with tough players, those kind of players are playing on the oppositions weakness more than the strength of their hands.

Just my HO.

Yes I would 100% open raise 9,9 in LP. 3 limps + 1 guy OTB. When I raise the flop I'm 90% certain BTN is folding so he becomes irrelevant unless he spiked a lucky set.

I've played a pot with V before few months ago (not sure he remembers) where I raised IP with a set and he tank called the flop and folded the turn.

In this spot my thinking was that if he shoves I can fold
pretty easily, rather than facing another barrel OTT.

However ! My fear with these type hands (overpair on 9 high board) is he knows that 95% of the time I'm 4b QQ+ IP pre so when I raise this flop he can likely shove his entire range knowing I'm good enough to fold 10s, JJ and even some QQ. That's the part which makes me think calling could be a better option.

Such a frustrating spot! I guess I should just flat flop and re-evaluate.

What do you guys think?

Raising flop is bad, I doubt you are raising 33/22/92/93 and calling the 3bet so if villain is good he should know your value range is exclusively 99 and maybe slowplayed AA/KK but again doubt you play KK/AA that way.

I might just fold flop and tell no one in a multiway pot.

Agreed. Tried to make valid arguments for raising flop but I think call is correct. I don't like a fold, feels way to exploitable.

Anyway...he thought for 25 seconds and shoved after my flop raise.

Who cares if its exploitable? Its only exploitable if he bets all better on the turn and checks all worse which I doubt is going to be the case vs a good player.

Vs a good player he will probably be emptying the clip a good amount knowing our calling range is soooooooooo small and that we most likely will arrive to the river with a 1pair hand unless we get lucky.

I ran this hand through the poker snowie scenario analyzer. Preflop snowie recommends calling the 3-bet 100% of the time (EV=.21). It also says a min 4-bet has the same EV, but obviously a min 4-bet is a sub-optimal bet size for any portion of your 4-bet range.

Postflop snowie recommends flatting the $100 bet 100% of the time. The EV of the flat is 14.13 compared to 13.47 for a min-raise. I'm not sure how accurate these "GTO-ish" numbers are, but thought this info might add to the discussion.

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Also, Snowie recommends calling a half-pot bet on most turns I simulated, unless the turn card is a heart, nine, queen, king or ace.

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I agree with this, and will add two points:

1. It's only exploitable if you continue to play the same type of hands in the same exploitable way. I'm guessing next time around you'd re-raise villain on the flop. Nothing wrong with learning a lesson and playing it better the next time around.

2. What's more exploitable: folding on the flop and losing the $53 you put in pre, and never telling anyone you had JJ? Or playing the hand as is, and either folding here on the flop after you've put in $300, or calling the shove to likely stack off 400bb with a bluff catcher?

Results?

I dunno...i like the raise on the flop i just think you can make it closer to a minraise because v will flat 0% either way

The problem with flatting pre is that you have a player behind who youd rather fold.

I think r/f otf is a good play fwiw but its close to a call and the difference may be how big your bankroll is.

I bring 12 BIs to the game so im not worried about it. Getting JJ in here either pre or OTF has to be around breakeven at worst with 130 bigs in an LP spot where your opp is playing correct.

At least that is my guess.

R/f actually seems ok...the next best option call flop fold turn imo but we definitely get exploited some of timw but perhaps not enough to make it inferior to r/f

In short i dont mind your play here one bit tho you can def go call flop fold turn

And as for the other suggestion of fold flop i dont mind set mining with JJ.

If you are just calling pre its ok to only continue when you flop a set. Its very reasonable.

So dont beat yourself up over this spot. There isnt a wrong or right answer

This isn't at 130 bigs. It's at 400. But agree it's a tough spot and complex hand.

Stacking off with JJ for 400bb isn't usually profitable.

This, but I'm also considering bluffing A, .

Oh wow this is a deep stack 1/2 game!
Forget everything i said, call pre, fold flop lol

Just assumed 2/5 for some dumb reason even tho the sizing pre would make no sense

FWIW I folded flop shove.

Certainly arguments for calling/raising/folding flop with most most logical being flatting the flop or 4b/f pre.

Thanks

Calling flop to fold to a turn bet from this V is so bad. I'd rather raise turn to turn JJ into a bluff than folding to this guy's double barrel.

Fold flop or call flop/call turn/evaluate river.


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