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JJ flops an OESD JJ flops an OESD

07-18-2018 , 12:38 AM
This hand from 1/3 has been bothering me a bit and I'm not really sure where I went wrong.

V1 is a weak passive player who will call/fold even his last $30. He's down to $150 currently. He calls way too loosely.

V2 is a huge gambler who will go all in with nothing but a flush draw. He's been running good though and is up to $900. He'll see flop with almost ATC.

Hero has a looseish image and is sitting on around $350.

I'm dealt JsJc in MP. Two limps in front of me, I raise to $30 (my standard open tonight). V1 calls and it folds around to V2 in the BB who calls.

Flop comes Ts9c8s.

This flop is a bit more coordinated than I'd like but in general I'm pretty happy with it - overpair + straight draw (in case I'm somehow not good) is nothing to sneeze at.

BB checks and I bet $80. V1 goes all-in for his remaining $120, and BB shoves over the top.

Hero? I have to call $240 to win a pot of $600.

At this point, I'm not *loving* my hand. I put V1 on something reasonably strong (2p+) but V2 could have any of the many draws on this board.

Even against 2p+, I think I have reasonable equity. It feels unlikely that either of them (particularly not V2) flopped the nuts considering how they played it. At worst, it feels like I have 10 outs (4xQ, 4x7, 2xJ) which would give me the required pot odds to call (240/600=40%) but I suspect that I'm already ahead of V2 at the least.

Thoughts?
JJ flops an OESD Quote
07-18-2018 , 01:45 AM
Call.
JJ flops an OESD Quote
07-18-2018 , 01:53 AM
Check flop

Now call
JJ flops an OESD Quote
07-18-2018 , 02:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Minatorr
Check flop
I disagree. Pot is $91ish, and we're playing $320 behind against morons, one of whom has only $120. Our hand crushes too hard to let it ride. Especially the $120 guy, he's just gonna ship AJ, KJ, J9, J8, 97, 87, TX, and two pair (which we beat slightly).
JJ flops an OESD Quote
07-18-2018 , 02:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AllTheCheese
I disagree. Pot is $91ish, and we're playing $320 behind against morons, one of whom has only $120. Our hand crushes too hard to let it ride. Especially the $120 guy, he's just gonna ship AJ, KJ, J9, J8, 97, 87, TX, and two pair (which we beat slightly).
You are right. I didn’t see the $120 stack guy, we need to gii vs him and the other guy is a moron too lol. I think even if they’re both bad players there’s a lot of merit to checking back 100bb+ deep effective, deeper moreso
JJ flops an OESD Quote
07-18-2018 , 03:05 AM
Why would you argue for checking the flop? Sure, there a chance that I'm behind but I think I'm usually ahead.

I want to start getting money in. Neither V finds it easy to fold a flop where they even slightly connect, but they *can* find folds on turns and especially rivers.
JJ flops an OESD Quote
07-18-2018 , 04:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by krilleater
Why would you argue for checking the flop? Sure, there a chance that I'm behind but I think I'm usually ahead.

I want to start getting money in. Neither V finds it easy to fold a flop where they even slightly connect, but they *can* find folds on turns and especially rivers.
You arent really ahead of a continuing range otf by much if at all, checking keeps ranges wider and this isnt a 3 street game.

Say you’re 200bb deep. Or even 300bb deep. You are going to get x’red at a decent freq bc they have a bunch of combos of sets/straights/conbo draws/two pair. Are you happy getting x’red here otf, with a high probability of facing a big second barrel ott?








No, you shouldnt be

There are a lot of reasons to check 100bb+ deep, but as ATC pointed out one of them has an SPR of 1.2 and we just need to pile in the money asap
JJ flops an OESD Quote
07-18-2018 , 07:14 AM
I not hating a flop check.

The guy with 120 will either put it in himself, or check because he totally whiffed.

when he puts it in, we can play the flop fully informed.

also, we will be closing the action, which some posters here tell me means that we automatically win. Ymmv

If he checks back, we can play the turn basically in position, because the guy behind us has announced hes giving up
JJ flops an OESD Quote
07-18-2018 , 11:24 AM
Preflop you have lots of options. You could overlimp to possibly limp/reraise (depending on who is doing the raising). You could raise really small (perhaps even minnish) simply to make it easier to play for stacks if you hit your set. Or you could raise really big to attempt to get in a large enough percentage of your stack preflop where you're comfortable playing for remaining stacks with an overpair. Looks like you took the last route, and with these super loose guys in the game I'm fine with that (although I might make it $35+ to be more comfortable stacking off postflop).

SPR is 3.5. We've got an overpair and an OESD, so should have pretty decent equity overall (even against some hands that are currently ahead). You could argue we're committed here, especially against loose players. If so, I would PSB the flop to setup a turn shove.

As played, looks like we're getting about 2.5:1, which should be more than enough against these guys. We may be good (against TP, draws, pair + draw) and we should often have a decent amount of outs if behind.

GcluelessNLnoobG
JJ flops an OESD Quote
07-18-2018 , 12:02 PM
based off reads you played it fine...you got stacks in with a hand that is best or has a good amount of equity if behind.

yes checking may be a better line but against these two players I just want my stack to go in. I can always rebuy if they get lucky
JJ flops an OESD Quote
07-18-2018 , 02:41 PM
Meh, I think we may be dead here a lot of the time, even against these droolers. I like the flop bet, but I think I fold to the shove and re-shove. We will see QJ or 76 a lot here IMO.
JJ flops an OESD Quote
07-21-2018 , 11:09 PM
call, run once please.
JJ flops an OESD Quote
07-22-2018 , 01:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by krilleater
Why would you argue for checking the flop? Sure, there a chance that I'm behind but I think I'm usually ahead.

I want to start getting money in. Neither V finds it easy to fold a flop where they even slightly connect, but they *can* find folds on turns and especially rivers.
If you're so sure about your Villain's calling range I'm not sure about the purpose of this thread.

I think it'd be in your best interest to have an explanation for your actions better than they can't fold on flops but miraculously they can fold turns.

I think having the draw makes betting the flop a worse idea. You're potentially going to have to fold the flop when you have a hand that has a good chance of improving. Along the same lines you have less fear about the opponent's draw coming in if they have a seven.
JJ flops an OESD Quote
07-22-2018 , 01:43 AM
Your standard open in a $1/3 game is $30?
JJ flops an OESD Quote
07-22-2018 , 02:46 AM
You played it right.

Tons of worse hands call the flop. Spades, any ten, any jack, KQ, any 7, 86. Hands like JT, J9 and J8 will think they are in great shape, but are crushed.

A turned straight or even an Ace could hurt your action.

No reason to let aces, sixes, one pair hands, and so forth see a free card.

What good things happen on the turn if it is checked through?

Mainly, though, you have a great hand against bad players.
JJ flops an OESD Quote
07-22-2018 , 08:10 AM
I have to call it off here accepting I could be up against a made straight. I would never check the flop but maybe that's why I'm a 1/2 scrub, but i would feel better about it if i had underrepped my hand. I call all day.
JJ flops an OESD Quote
07-22-2018 , 04:08 PM
My initial feeling is that you should call - you almost always have a least decent equity here versus the players you describe and I would estimate you are ahead here ~ half the time and will usually be live when you are behind. I crunched some range estimates...

Board: Ts8s9c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 41.69% 37.78% 3.92% { JsJc }

MP3 27.23% 24.51% 2.72% { QQ-77, ATs, KTs, QTs+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, ATo, KTo, QTo+, J9o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o }

CO 31.07% 28.22% 2.85% { JJ-77, Q9s+, J7s+, T7s+, 98s, 87s, As9s, As8s, As7s, 9s7s, As6s, Ks6s, Qs6s, Js6s, Ts6s, 9s6s, 8s6s, 7s6s, As5s, Ks5s, Qs5s, Js5s, Ts5s, 9s5s, 8s5s, 7s5s, As4s, Ks4s, Qs4s, Js4s, Ts4s, 9s4s, 8s4s, 7s4s, As3s, Ks3s, Qs3s, Js3s, Ts3s, 9s3s, 8s3s, 7s3s, As2s, Ks2s, Qs2s, Js2s, Ts2s, 9s2s, 8s2s, 7s2s, ATo, KTo, Q9o+, J9o+, T8o+, 98o }

It's closer than I thought and seems like a call vs. the players as you describe them.
JJ flops an OESD Quote
07-22-2018 , 10:06 PM
Quote:
Your standard open in a $1/3 game is $30?
This game is very loose and deep - $30 still gets 2-3 callers on average, usually with much worse hands.

Results:

Spoiler:
I ended up calling. V1 had pocket queens, V2 had T7o (lol)

Obviously this is a pretty poor outcome for me since my straight outs are blocked and I need them to beat V1, but I think it's still profitable if their hands were face up?

Main pot is $450, of which I have 23% equity = $103

Side pot is $400, of which I have 71% equity = $280

When it came back to me, I have to call $240 to realize my $383 in equity - seems like an easy call?

For what it's worth, my logic at the time was that V1 likely had a better hand (he's not a huge gambler, just generally passive/weak) but V2 was gambling it up. Right read, bad outcome.

V2 rivered a 6 to scoop.
JJ flops an OESD Quote

      
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