CLIFFNOTES: Fold or 5-bet him, I don't like flatting. I give reasons for both
I think I just fold here, light 4-betting happens so infrequently at 1/3nl that I just am never worried about being exploited when I get 4-betted. Or put another way, what percentage of the time would we say V is 4-betting us light? 5%? How about 10%? So, 90% of the time he is 4-betting us with QQ+, AK and 10% of the time he is 4-betting us light. The first question is, Well how light is light?
He's probably 4-betting us with KQ, AJ+, TT+
So, best case scenario is he is 4-betting us with a range that is almost equal equity wise to our range.
Worst case scenario, he is 4-betting us with the typical QQ+/AK range that crushes us.
In this spot I see us leveling ourselves, I mean, you put 66+ in his range. Really? REALLY???
I'm all for being awesome, but I think I just fold here. 50% of the time, there will be an overcard on the board and the remaining 50% of the time it flops lowball, we are going to have that niggling doubt in the back of our head we are getting owned when V shoves. Assuming we are good 50% of those times and we are looking at a scenario where 75% of the time we lose or get owned
I mean, we call, (assuming V is competent) and V is going to blast 100% of all boards unless he flops the world. So we have to resign ourselves to calling in a situation where 90% of the time we are facing the typical 4-betting range and 10% of the time we are facing a range that still fairs well against our range?
I think this is a -EV situation. I think 4-betting light happens so infrequently at 1/3nl (even with so-called thinking players) that I just have zero problems ever folding JJ to them.
But, if I'm in Grim Reaper mode, and I am soul reading this villain for 66+, AQ, KQ and I honestly feel he is 4-betting us light...
then optimal adjustment is to 5-bet him (or shove) and commit to playing for stacks if he jams us.
Why? What???
Because, even if V is 4-betting us light,
his range is going to have comparable equity to our holdings. So, by 5-betting (or even shoving) we can make villain make an equity mistake by folding and surrendering his equity to us. We can realize fold equity and get him to fold hands like KQ, AQ, that have decent equity to us. He can simultaneously make a mistake by calling with hands we crush like 66-TT thinking that he is "flipping" against AK when in reality we dominate him. Obviously we get snapped off by QQ+
but meh, our awesome soul read is telling us V is 4-betting us light so unleash the dogs of war.
Because if V is 4-betting us light and the board hits K 4 8 and V blasts the pot, how good are we going to feel with our JJ? In effect, V being out of position is an advantage given the high likelihood of him blasting the flop combined with the high likelihood of an overcard to our JJ hitting the flop.
We are kinda squeezed between two ranges when you think about it. If we put V on 66 - TT type pockets and AJ+, KQ and the board hits T 8 7 how happy are we? Conversely if the board hits K Q 4, again, how happy are we?
If you think about this, we are set up perfectly to get outplayed if we do flat.
So, if we do flat, then we have to resign ourselves to calling 100% of all boards no matter what.
Or, we can 5-bet preflop and put the pressure back on V and probably get it in.
When faced with options between being passive and being aggressive, I tend to favor the aggressive action.
You soul read villain for 4-betting you light????.
Then 5-bet him!!!!