The other day, I was playing 1/2 (300 effective) and woke up on the button with JJ.

There were something like 5 limps in front of me, so I decided to 3x the pot (my logic being to treat it as if one person had open to 13 in front of me, instead of 5 limps plus the blinds). I made it like 37 and still got 4 callers.

The flop comes down K, J, 10 (two spades).

I figure that there are so many queens in their limp-calling range that I'll have to give up or turn my set into a bluff on any 9 or A, not to mention if backdoor spades come in.

That said, I decided to make a large overbet and moved in. If they want to pay for their draws, so be it.

Is that a spew (i.e. to give any 8-out or 9-out draw – not to mention combo draws – that kind of price)? It feels like I would need to be a lot deeper to actually price them out. What I mean is that if even two people have a strong draw, they'll be getting a decent price.

I'm not really worried about anyone having top set because I think that even in this bizarre configuration, QQ+ is still a 3-bet. Not to mention, there's too much money to be had from anything like AT, KT, KQ (probably offsuit) that decided to overlimp and then overcall.

I'm not real satisfied with my play on the flop, but I couldn't find another bet sizing that wouldn't leave me pot-committed anyway. What's Bart Hanson's rule: if you're going to be pot committed, then just ship it?

Would appreciate everyone's thoughts.

I'd just play it like I had AK and make whatever my normal sized bet would be. We have as many outs to a FH as there is to a straight.

Jamming seems fine with the SPR and how sticky people are

If I’m reading this right you’re shipping ~265 into ~175? Seems fine.

Easy ship for fat value. Or you can just bet 130-150, and ship the rest in on any turn if called or whatever.

Overbetshipping is a good line here, any decent draw will likely call you with this much in the pot, two pair will stackoff, pair with a draw+++.

I wouldn't normally go so large pre but if game conditions allow for it, then good or you.

On the flop you can bet smaller and ship turn or just shove flop, either is honestly fine.

Well played. Exactly how you should exploit these guys


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Hypothetically, if you knew one of your opponents had KQ or two spades and that they would fold to an overbet jam but check-raise all-in to a half-pot bet, which bet size would you prefer?

If you knew there was one opponent interested in the hand and would play exactly that way then betting half the pot is more profitable. Middle set is so strong that getting all of the money in the pot should be the goal. Hero shouldn't be worried about being drawn out on.

The real world situation is that shoving is generally better by a small margin with a low SPR. It's usually slightly easier to get multiple callers if hero is the one that shoves but this is really a minor factor in overall EV. A good draw will often call anyways and if hero doesn't shove there is the risk that somebody flats the bet. One or more people flatting the bet on the flop is still profitable but it cuts into the profit margin and is really what makes shoving slightly more profitable over all.

@BDHarrison

Honestly, it's hard to say. With as multi-way of a pot as this is and with what limp/calling ranges probably look like, I can only assume that this smashed most of the callers' ranges. In hindsight, if I had wanted to be super greedy, I probably could have gone smaller with my bet on the flop because they are probably holding a lot of each other's outs.

That said, let's try another scenario: you bet small and get three callers. On the turn, the straight or the flush (or, God forbid, both) comes in. How do you continue with your hand against any action that you face?

I personally would have a hard time believing that trips are good there... ever (at least at low stakes).

This is the only argument that I see in favor of my play on the flop. I made a move for the equity that I had in the pot without giving my opponents a chance to outplay me. In the actual runout, I got two callers and drilled quads on the turn.

You dont need to " be good" though if some of the draws gets there on the turn: you only need to bet enough on the flop in order not giving the draws a profitable price to continue. If they still make a losing call on the flop with a draw and suck out on you, they are losing money and made a mistake not you.

What you need to continue even if lets say the flushdraw gets there on the turn, is the proper pot equity to continue wich you will often have with topset drawing to the stones.

Since there are at most two streets of betting, it's an easy math problem to set up and one that you should work through. Keep in mind that if you bet small enough, you get people calling with Ax for a gutshot or any pair.

At some tables, you can assume that two pair or better would donk the flop because it's so multi-way and a flush draw is possible and people are scared of giving free cards to draws.

I'm not worried at all about getting sucked out on.

I just don't want to give them more than a fair shot at their equity, let them realize it, and then have to forfeit all of my own equity in the pot when the flush/straight comes in.

For this reason, I'm starting to think that my flop play actually achieved its objectives, even if I didn't take the time to think through all of the subtleties during actual live play.

I think this is a great situation to bet close to pot and given a shove is a slight overbet, to jam. Weak players love limping broadways and suited cards so I think they are all over this board plus it's multiway meaning a better chance someone has something they like. Lastly flop jams tend not to be the nuts so we may even get looked up light.

I might bet smaller with AQ