Villain has limped several times pre-flop, even in early position and would fold if someone raises. It is a new table and we have only been playing for an hour or so. Not much info on his post-flop play.
Pre-flop:
One player in early position limps, villain raises to $16 in middle position, I call in the cut off with JJ. Everyone else folds.
Should I have 3-bet? The reason I didn't do it was because I think only better hands will call my 3-bet and fold worse hands.
Flop:
9 2 2r
Villain c-bet $25. I call, putting villain on AK, AQ, AJ, maybe A10, broadway cards and pocket pairs, I think there was no reason to raise as only better hands will call and fold worse.
Turn:
2
Villain checks, at this point I think I can eliminate big pairs from his range, his range mostly gears towards Ax as mentioned above. I check behind with the intention to induce a bet on the river.
River:
2
Whoops, bad river card. Villain bets half the pot, I insta-fold.
Was there anything I could have done differently? 3-bet pre-flop? Bet the turn?
Your reason for not 3X pre or raising Flop are solid. I would have bet the turn once he checked. If he had Ax, he surely folds. As played, once that 4th deuce hits and he bets out, snap fold is only play IMO.
With the reads you have, calling PF seems fine. I play it the same, except I bet the turn when checked to (40-50). As a side effect, you may get to showdown if you bet the turn, or you can more confidently fold to a river lead.
I 3-bet JJ PF in CO or BUT often, especially against a late to middle position raise, unless there's a compelling reason not to. If you're often flatting JJ preflop in position to an MP open, I would take a close look at your own tendencies. If this is a specific case vs this specific player at this specific stack depth, then, it's all good.
Given your stack size, I probably 3-bet to $50 pre-flop. Taking down $26 with JJ is not a bad result at all, and you're not really deep so less value to just seeing a flop in position. If you 3-bet, it's easy for you to gii by the turn if you choose.
Agreed with not raising flop. I probably do bet turn, looking to get value from all FHs and sometimes from A-high. As played, river is a snap fold.
The first place to start is ranges. He's played about 25-30 hands without raising until now. That suggests a fairly tight raising range. In addition, he's limp/folding pf. That is a clearer sign that he looks a most hands as not worth much pf and not worth playing a big pot. As a baseline, I'd say he isn't raising much more than AQs+, AKo, JJ+. Against this range, JJ is a solid underdog. If you 3bet, he'll fold about 1/2 of the time and call/4 bet the rest of the time. If he does call/4 bet, you're crushed.
On a simple basis of assuming you'll just fold going forward, the EV calculation is you'll win 26 half of the time and lose 40 or more the rest. So against this range, a 3 bet is a bad move.
If you call, you're really looking to set mine primarily. Your mining odds are about 16:1 if he'll stack off. Given that he folds when he misses, I think you can win a fair number of hands if your post flop skills are reasonably good. Therefore, I would call. Unfortunately, it appears your post flop skills aren't that good. The turn was a great place to take down the hand or freeze the action on the river. You should have bet. Until you're ready to pounce on weakness shown by your villains, you're better off just folding on the flop when you miss your set.
River based on the range is a clear fold. You beat nothing and only tie the other JJ.
Finally, we can look at the pf again figuring out how wide the villain has to open in order to make the 3bet profitable. Without going over the math in detail, he needs to be raising ATs, AJo or 99 pf for a 3bet to breakeven. I don't think the player as described above is that loose.
I think only better hands will call my 3-bet and fold worse hands.
If that is actually true, everytime he calls you know he has QQ+? Wouldn't you think his 4 betting range include more hands that beat your JJ than his flatting range?
i.e. he flats with QQ, AKo+
he 4 bets KK/AA
Don't you want him to 4bet? Realistically is part of you just trying to set mine JJ? I'm not saying you have to 3 bet here I'm just questioning your motivations.
Finally, we can look at the pf again figuring out how wide the villain has to open in order to make the 3bet profitable. Without going over the math in detail, he needs to be raising ATs, AJo or 99 pf for a 3bet to breakeven. I don't think the player as described above is that loose.
You would need to know his 2-bet/fold range. E.g. he may fold everything but AA and KK.
