We need to go bigger preflop so we can get the SPR to the 1.5 threshold. Then we utter the famous words OTF of all in.

3bet to 95—>210ish pot OTF with 305 stacks. Okay all in. We can split our range OTF into 2 bet sizes if we want to be theoretically correct. Betting small with less vulnerable hands and all in with TT/JJ but this guy is a fish so I’ll just play my hand in most optimal way possible.

When there are zero good turns for your hand, push your equity.

This is a bizarre thread. I see GG is once again heroically trying to remove playing poker from the game of poker.

Like what? It's hard for him to even have a worse one pair hand here - what limp/calls pre for $75 that makes one pair on this board? I also don't think he's calling with any one pair hand we beat except maybe TT, even that is pretty dubious. If he has a draw (and there actually aren't all that many combos of draws) then he's going to be like 40% against us with them.

Checking behind his draws is fantastic for x/f because getting bluffed out by big draws is a major downside of x/f.

No. One of the big lessons from the advent of poker AI is actually the exact opposite - that you don't try to "protect your hand" on dangerous boards. Here is Dan "jungleman" Cates explaining this (you only have to watch like a minute of video).

This is a little complicated, because it can be right to push your hand harder on wet boards, but you do it for value, value is always the consideration. So on a wet board, if you think your opponent has a worse made hand, you want to bet stronger, because a lot of runouts could kill your action. You don't bet stronger because you think he has a lot of draws. Another caveat is that when the pot gets large compared to stacks, like OTT here, hand protection can become more of an issue. If I was getting it in OTT here, I'd certainly be betting, but I want to fold.

If he never calls worse, then he folds at least 35-50% of his range minimum and turn is a super +EV jam. Only LOL thing is assuming a tight lol rando guy at the casino here isnt ever calling with worse, which is ALWAYS false

Here's as generous a range as I can come up with:

{ QQ-44,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,AdKd,AdQd,KdQd,AdJd,KdJd,Qd Jd,AdTd,JdTd }

We have 27% equity there and need 29.7% to GII. I don't know what else I could plausibly put in that range. Personally I think it's going to have a lot less FDs (which just shove flop imo) and I would discount everything in the range that isn't a pocket pair.

What does his preflop range look like iyo?

Preflop range is probably the reason people are seeing this hand differently. Like if his preflop range here is ATC and then he calls flop with any pair, then it's a lolobvious jam OTT. But the pf range I have him on basically precludes him having a worse one pair here unless it's TT.

If we go by the assumption that he doesn't snap call us with 100% of that range, which many seem to imply and are overexaggerating how tight we get called, we need way less than 29.7% to gii. If he doesnt call with worse, then turn is a snap jam simply for equity denial and to pick up a huge pot in a low spr with not much behind.

if he even folds 20% of that range, which is very few hands and is a conservative estimate, we already have a +EV jam.

CO limp, button raise to 21, SB call, Hero in BB makes it 75 w/ JhJc, limper calls, button and SB fold.

CO is young Asian guy that got moved to our table ~1hr ago with a $550ish stack. Has played tight over the hour, only limping a couple times and folding postflop. No other history.

Flop 5d 7h 8d. Hero bets 75, villain calls.

I wouldn't be too quick to range a fishy Asian player who's been limpy and playing fishy too tightly preflop or too tightly post with whatever he's calling with post vs a 1/3 sizing. They got the gamble in their blood. Trust me.

If he has hands like 54s-98s, why cant he have all the Axdd? What about Axhh? There are many contradictory points in this thread. If he's so tight, he shouldn't even have any SCs here in the first place, basically 0 two pairs, etc. Yet if he has bad hands like 54s-98s, all of a sudden he can't call worse ott? In either case, it's pretty impossible to defend both that he's nutted here a lot OTT and doesn't call worse. And even if he couldn't call worse ott, then turn is a very clear jam just to pick up the dead money in a low SPR pot.

Where are these games where tight-playing young asians are limp calling to 25x(when 3better is 133bb's deep and he's not closing action) with anything, much less p4's and KJs?

So often in these threads the description doesn't match the actions at least by showdown. It's like a troll(tho I'm not accusing op of trolling).

If he were very drunk and it was 3am, okay.

His pf range is aces, kings and description wrong, imo.

Maybe he's never played before.

I don't get what you're trying to say here. You bold that he's only played a couple hands in an hour and played them tight passively, then you label him "fishy" and you're like THEY GOT THE GAMBLE IN THEIR BLOOD! I like a good ethnic profiling job as much as the next LLSNL player, but I am probably overruling his ethnicity with the evidence of an hour of play here. The evidence is that he's tight passive, we need to reconcile his pf play here with that, not radically change our classification of him.

I mean I'm attemping to be generous with the range. Him having two pair with suited connectors is bad for my argument for x/f. Throw some AXdd and AXhh in there if you like, it's not going to make a huge difference. My personal opinion on his range is closer to { 44+ }, against which we have 20.5% and it's a very easy x/f. Try to come up with a plausible range where it's anything other than a breakeven GII. If the best possible case is a breakeven GII and the worst possible case is an easy x/f, then we need to x/f.

{ QQ-44,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,AdKd,AdQd,KdQd,AdJd,KdJd,Qd Jd,AdTd,JdTd,Ad9d,Ah9h,Ad8d,Ah8h,Ad7d,Ah7h,Ad6d,Ah 6h,Ad5d,Ah5h,Ad4d,Ah4h,Ad3d,Ad2d }

There, I gave him all the AXdd and all AXhh between A9 and A4 (so that he has some piece of the flop). This increased our equity to 29%. Still a -EV GII. Any other hands you want to include?

Note that I'm generously excluding AA and KK from the above range. If I put them in, equity drops sharply to 26.6%. This is the general problem you have here, that a lot of hands we lose to are super bad for us and most of the "good hands" for us we top out at like 60% equity.

I like the 3! Sizing, but prefer larger cbet on flop.

WTF do you imagine him folding out of that range? I'm not responsible for what others ITT are implying. I don't think he's folding anything OTT. You could make an argument for TT and perhaps QQ.

Thanks for the link.

Jungleman is talking about pots with higher SPR though, this would be a flop shove since the SPR is <2.

This exact same spot came up today in my group coaching session with MMASherdog (top 5 cash game player in the world) and he advocates shoving.

If the SPR was higher and we had to play a multi-street game then I agree with you.

Then you will be saying "nice hand sir, here's my stack" often. Lol, I kid.

But, GG, I'm curious what range do you put V on here?

ChrisV just because we are behind his calling range doesn’t mean shoving is not the most optimal play. When he folds the flop we scoop over 100BB. We need to realize all of our equity, shoving at this SPR is the best way to do that.

Edited. I’m talking about a flop jam. As played x/f turn.

I'm OK with a flop jam if we raised bigger pre. Think taking two streets is OK too, depending on exactly what SPR is etc. I was taking issue with your general statement, rather than your line on this hand specifically.

I was being somewhat facetious. It's a joke on the fact that people around me joke/say that Asians love gambling in my culture and that it's in our blood, and it isn't wrong. Asians can be pretty big degen gamblers in my community, and a lot of Asians like gambling. Don't know why you were taking that part so seriously lol, maybe you didn't get the underlying joke I was poking fun at.

In reference to your question where what I think he folds ott and you think he folds nothing ott.

You think he calls off J high/Q high ott? And that he 100% never folds A high FDs ott? I mean yeah if you think he would snap call every hand in that range with 100% certainty and never ever fold (very unrealistic but let's just assume for argument), yeah then jamming is very very slightly -EV. It's not like a disaster shove. Even if he folds like 5%-8% of hands we are already getting a +EV jam, on the other extreme if he never calls worse we have an extremely +EV jam. I'd reckon what happens in reality is somewhere in-between and we still have a +EV jam.

I think he calls all that stuff on the turn, but I'm not super concerned with the flush draws because I think they're unlikely for both his pre and flop lines.

Like I said, I think his range is closer to 44+, or maybe even 44-99 or { 44-99, KK+ }, and I'm discussing these wider ranges basically as an edge case. If you shove 250 into 44+ and he calls everything, including TT, then your expectation is -$78 vs x/f, which doesn't seem great. If I had to make a wild-ass guess, I think in the real world shoving loses you perhaps $40.

Regarding villain's range and description not jiving, I think you are comparing what I said with some of the other posters' replies, no? I put villain on a pretty tight range in my OP (although not AA, KK tight - and I think he's actually capped here PF) which jives with my description of him (I think?). You're implying that it doesn't?

I later made some comments on my general player pool sometimes calling wider than you would expect in these spots in response to some of the ranges people put forward, but noted in that post that perhaps that doesn't apply to this relatively unknown villain (lol 1 hr sample size of his play). Maybe that wasn't clear.

I guess I took it seriously because to me the idea that Asians in general love to gambool isn't a joke, it's just a fact lol.

I think to make this a jam, you're going to need to stack his range with stuff that does fold, like 22, 33, one-pair Ax hands without a draw, etc. I write "etc" but I have no idea what else would go in that range. Not going to do the math because I'm too skeptical his range looks anything like that.

Yes.

For an unknown to play tight for an hour means to me that he's not some maniac but it is true that maybe he never played before which is pretty much an anomaly. To include AK in his range we would have to theorize that he is never ever pfr'ing(imo) which is also an anomaly. I don't see any value in analyzing a hand which is an anomaly. If villain has 69o is the hand really worth discussing.

In my post #3 in this thread I mention some other hand but I see the most natural hands for him to have QQ+(overweighting AA then KK) thinking about limp 3betting but when the 3 bet comes in he thinks a 4 bet is too transparent and too easy to fold to so he risks seeing a flop.

If hero has 3bet twice in the last hour I am happy to widen villains range.

How often do you see young asian not open AKs first fm co? And then not shove 4bet facing this action but take the worst option and call 25bb's then flop flush draw and still not get it in, or back door.... it's just literally incredible imo.

I didn't read your other post about passive player pool but will now.