Table: 1/3 Monday Afternoon, average line up. No good dynamics going on at the moment.

Hero: Pretty aggressive, but very tight overall because I've been very card dead. Up some from my $400 buy in after I called a PFR with KQo from the SB, we went 5 ways to the flop, cked around, binked broad way on the turn and I went pot pot on turn + river and got called, mhws. $750.

Villain 1: I'm pretty sure I picked up a sizing tell on this guy. Every time he's shown down a speculative hand QTs, KJs, 65s he's opened to $10, and every time he's has a high pocket pair he's opened to $12 JJ x 2, QQ x 1 AKs x 1. Def a semi-reg, but not veryt good. Slowly giving away money and can't make good value bets on the turn / river with obviously best but not good hands. (QQ on a A xxxx board no flush, no straight, no board pair, checked 3 streets IP). $500

Villain 2: He's also def a reg but I can't put a finger on him. He's shown some weird tendencies that I can't tell if he was trying to bluff or trying to value bet. I did see him ck/rs semi-bluff the turn about 15 hands ago. He raised pre with KJ, got 2 callers board J73, cBet $30 (.5psb) 1 cl, turn 8 ck, caller bets $55, V ck/rs to $155, and when the dude calls V snap checked dark (and won the hand on a river vs 78 for turn 2p) $950

Pre:
V1 opens to $10 from the LJ
V2 flats in the CO
Hero calls with 43

Flop ($30): 772
Hero checks
V1 bets $20
V2 calls
Hero ck/rs to $85
V1 thinks for a 15-20 seconds asks how much, and calls
V2 calls also

I expected the ck/rs to take this down pretty often, given that V1 likely doesn't have an OP given the PFR size. I'm not 100% sure about V2, but I think it's mostly XX type hands, and maybe some PP's that want to peel a card. Esp if he's picked up on the same sizing tell as I have. How's the thought process?

Obviously once I get two callers, I think their ranges are more weighted to club draws, and some bigger pocket pairs. Maybe some 7's also. But good 7's might also 3bet the flop after I ck/rs. Not really sure.

Turn ($285): 2
Hero bets $165

Should be a pretty good card to barrel, ya? I would think that any hand that is not 7x would have to snap fold. I don't see how clubs can continue. Maybe really strong over pairs, but even then it's an ugly board to make the call on.

From the blinds 3 bet pre if you want to play, especially if V1 wants to call wide and play fit or fold post. I would be cbetting 60-70% heads up against V1.

As played I suppose you should barrel, but you'll have to play you big hands this fast as well to avoid being capped when you c/r on paired boards.

Even though price is good, 43s is kinda meh due to poor RIO (it never wins straight over straight / flush over flush / two pair over two pair). Plus we don't have position, which makes this a pretty simple fold preflop, imo.

I just think we're getting too fancy on the flop. For one, we did have a bet and a call on a fairly dryish board (only draw is the flush draw), so it's not unreasonable to think someone may have a 7. Second, no one folds a flush draw on the flop (seriously, no one ever folds a flush draw on the flop), so we're going to have to double barrel here a lot (and are we up against a flush draw, or a monster?). I just check/fold.

With two callers to the check/raise, I'm absolutely done with this hand.

Gspew,imoG

im folding at all 3 given opportunities

3bet or fold pre. Fine spot for a squeeze given the read.

Flop is meh. Maybe worth a try? Not a scary board...

C/f turn this is not a scare card. With 2 people in the hand I doubt you can bluff them out, and often one has 7x

Pre-flop, I don't think you're applying your reads correctly at all here.

If your sizing tell on the opener is any good, then you have an interesting dynamic pre that you can exploit. You have a relatively weak later position raise followed by an LP call, which is also likely to be more weak than strong. Also, you said that you have a very tight image. Villains are going to have fairly wide ranges and you're going to be very strong when you raise.

So if you're gonna play your 43s, why the **** are you flatting pre?

I'd just fold. But if you must play the hand, 3-bet to $55 pre-flop as a squeeze.

I think flatting pre is the worst option. I mean, 772r is a weird flop, and you decided to make a play at it, etc., but otherwise you're just not making money here.

Anyhow, if you do flat pre, and you did, this is probably the worst flop to check/raise for the very reasons you're already suggesting - people will stick around with pocket pairs, flush draws, etc. You also have zero equity when people do continue. Not sure it matters, but I'll also add that your range doesn't necessarily look nutted - you can have flush draws and air here. Like a check/raise on K72r is scarier because what can you have other than a set, etc., though I'm not suggesting we try to get people to fold top pair.

So not to be harsh, and I do it too, but we are spewing pre-flop and on the flop.

Finally, on the turn, you got yourself in a situation with the nut low in a 100BB pot 3-way with no ability to improve to a hand that might be best. That's not good planning, is it?

Well, with that said, I agree the 2 on the turn is probably the very nut best card for you to continue your bluff - so go ahead and bet out now. When the board double pairs, all flush draws have to know they're drawing to a hand that does not beat the value range you're repping, and I think lower pocket pairs will now give up, as well... because what the **** could you have, it's not like your building a pot oop 3-way with 43s. That's cra. I think 33-66 have a very hard time continuing to call down facing a large turn bet.

So I don't like pre (fold> 3-bet squeeze >>....>> flat), and I don't like the flop check/raise (everyone calls with everything), but you pretty much binked your 2 outer bluffing card (you cannot barrel a 7, DUCY - Zeebo), so go ahead bet big now. Never stop in the middle of a hoedown. I think it's very hard for villains to continue with almost anything they're likely to have - the vast majority of their range will now appear to be very weak bluff catchers and/or bad draws to bad hands.

Now, it's obviously possible someone has a 7, but I think it's fairly unlikely given action, combinatorics, and pre-flop (like V's initial pre-flop ranges contain so few 7x). I think you will get a sufficient % of folds to make this profitable. I would of course prefer to be heads up. If you get called on the turn, I think you need to give up - please do not spew off your stack on the river.

Also, I think your turn bet is a touch small - small enough that it might encourage a call with a better hand. Make it $200 and give up on river.

fold pre

/thread lol what are you doing in this hand

fps and spew, in 1/3 jus value town your villains over and over again and do not do this







honestly raise pre if your going to play this, if not- fold

/thread

I'll just discuss the turn shove.
Given players description, reads and actions, V1 and V2 ranges OTT are heavier in FDs and overpairs than 7's.
My estimations are that when you bet OTT:

V1 have 36% of the time 2 pair aces and nines or better
V2 have 34% FH or better

I consider that they fold to the turn bet the rest of the time.
Thus, they both fold about 42% of the time.
OTT, you bet $165 to take $285 and you need to be good at least 37% to be profitable.
The bluff is not very +EV, but it's still the best move.

Bet sizing OTT seems OK to me. It's big enough to deny the proper odds for the FD to continue, and it's small enough to maintain an acceptable risk/reward ratio on your bluff.

agree with all of this, however I want to add. If he is opening 10$ with spec hands and you know this, you should tighten your 10$ calling range, not opening it up. fold pre.