(Since I now play 7% of hands I'm dealt, as opposed to 30%+, I have more time to draft snappier thread titles.)

Hero has a little over 2k @ 2/5, V is a legendary spot who basically plays the same slag way Hero is weaning himself from. That said, V does not bluff, like ever. Will herocall off a stack, but not force a fold herself. V is asian female (if that matters).

V opens UTG 35, 2 calls and Hero flats with red 99 in CO, bu and blinds fold.

Flop (140) T92r

V fires 150, two folds, Hero calls.

Turn (440) J putting heart flush on board (T was black otf, can't 100% remember if spade/club...)

V fires 375, Hero calls.

River (1190) black J of whatever suit T was not

V fires 1000 in 2 neat stacks of black (announced it verbally first, and for that matter on all streets).

Hero puke folds.

Is she maybe overvaluing straights?

Definitely possible. I gave this some serious consideration. But what does she think I'm calling with? And why does she turn her hand into a bluff (obv she doesn't think she's doing this, but she is).

I've seen her x/c a large bet in this sort of spot oop with an overpair so I'm pretty confident there's zero QQ+ in her range, fwiw.

She also just put one thousand american dollars into the pot without breaking a sweat.

The thing is there are 9 higher quads/full house than yours but 32 straights. If she's only betting like 5 of them, then you can call.

hmm im not sure we can find here. we flatted each street, can we really fold here? if we do fold i much prefer we just fold 22, but not sure we can be folding 99/TT here.

can you expand a little bit on V? slag but never bluffs ever?

Damn. So if she's only betting KQs combos and ONE KQo we have the equity?

slag pre, flop and turn. Plays river ultra straightforward imo. She would have fired two barrels with AK and x/f river, for instance.

Would leading KQ into 3 people on the flop be considered a bluff for this villain?

I'm just not folding this.

You ever think she's overvaluing trips here? Maybe she barreling Aj-QJ... your hand is so strong that villain can be value betting with a lot of worse hands here. Obviously straights, trips... it's honestly just a cooler if you lose... maybe play shallower? If you're beat here she deserves every penny.

I think she's overvaluing an over pair actually. I'd actually get the remaining chips I have behind in.

Also, you play in LA right? Why did you ever want to have an over bluff style? In my small sample the general player pool is so stationary. I would just occasionally show up with some small bluffs so the players would think I'm capable and try and always "have it" in big pots.

she has Ahi flush a lot man gotta call it off

There's no flush ^

ok she has straight gotta call it off
also raise flop

I think it comes down to her flop sizing and whether she would raise PF and bomb 150 into 140 with JTo*. If not, you're 50% vs 22/TT and you only need to be good 31.3% here. I would discount JJ with with this river sizing but even if you include it you still have 42.9% equity. And that's absolute worst case scenario with 0 combos of spazz with KQ/78.

*fwiw, there is only one possible combo of JTs. If you include this one combo and the one combination of JJ you're still at 37.5% equity.

Actually I play east coast mainly I'm just in LA for work a couple times a year, agree with your general style for that player pool.
I nitted it up hardcore on LATB : D

It's probably equal to AK in terms of bluff/cbet into field, though I do think she's limp calling KQ oop, but yeah good point

Yeah I think that was a big mistake, 400bb deep I play not toppest set too passive

Thanks for the math this is great stuff, appreciate it

Oh okay. Yeah East Coast generally players see monsters under the bed.

UTG open combined with a ten high flop overbet looks a lot like an overpair. Yeah, she never bluffs, but she still thinks her queens are good otr. She probably put you on a ten. I would be more worried vs a better player (this all depends on what her UTG 7x opening range is).

QJs one time?

Can't fold.

Not thrilled, but I'm calling because quads are hard to get, and so is getting oversetted on the flop.

btw not enough love for thread title

Yeaaaaa.. just not folding this

+1, great stuff

good thread title

bad fold

It's doubtful she is opening JT for $35 pre or potting the nuts TT on the flop. As played shove river but I would have looked to raise earlier in the hand to give us a better chance to play for stacks against normal villains who don't pot/pot/pot.