Stakes: 1/3

Hero: (covers) otb
Villain: ($650) utg

V is late 20ish white guy who also deals at one of the local games. Hero does have some history with this V. Last time we played together (probably a month ago), V made a big turn bluff when hero was holding KK, and got snapped off and lost his stack. V is a LAGish/decent player and tonight has bought in for the big stack (hero) and I barely have him covered.

PF: V straddles to $6, 4 callers, hero also calls w/10d 7d, both blinds call. 8 players.

Pot: $42
SPR: 15.5

Flop: 5c 6c 4d

V bets $30. Hero is only caller.

Pot: $102
Turn: 9d

V bets $70....hero raises to $225....V insta-shoves....hero?

Thoughts: Should I ever be calling here? What is V shoving with?

V is repping 87 and not much else here, maybe a set. Just do the math. You've got to call about 320 into 400ish here, so you're getting 2.25:1ish? This is probably a fold. You need all 15 outs to be clean, and I just don't see it being likely here. 3's are iffy outs, as are the 5 and 6 of diamonds.

I probably just call the turn here. V straddled and lead big into 7 other players. He has all the hands, and clearly likes his. I don't think you have the FE needed to make this turn raise good. From a GTO standpoint, it's probably a good raise, but I just think it gets called way too often. We should be raising this turn for value, never as a bluff/semi-bluff.

I'm also just overlimping preflop on the Button. It's a very speculative hand but I'm hoping my position and (hopefully) my skill advantage over the field will make this profitable.

Flop call is dicey. We have low IO on our four-to-straight and horrendous RIO if we turn a worse straight. But we could rep the flush draw if it comes in. Although we still do have 2 blinds who could get involved and screw all that up. If he's going to hurp durp off his stack like last time, then a call is fine, but I think folding is fine too (I'll likely be outvoted on that).

Dude bet into eleventeen opponents OOP on the flop and continued large on the turn (albeit HU). I'm not exactly reading weakness, so I'd never raise the turn. We're getting close to the right odds to call, so I'd just do that. As played, whether we can profitably call the shove is just a math question (which I'm too lazy to do).

GcluelessNLnoobG

In hindsight, I think just calling the turn is the right play.

That said, shouldn't we be raising turn with bluffs/semi-bluffs also to protect our raising range?

Lol, no math necessary. Thanks for your thoughts.

I do agree 100% that a turn call instead of a raise is the most profitable line long term. This guy likes to gamble, and I didn't weight that detail heavily enough into my line equation.

I should've mentioned in my OP that I knew he would be willing to run it twice....so that did factor in to my thought process, and made my turn call decision a bit easier.

For those who are wondering, here are results:

From a pure game theory standpoint, yes. But against a player pool that will call or shove far too often against this raise, you are losing money by bluffing. GTO can win at low stakes, but it is far from the most profitable style.

Well said. I would tend to agree with you.