1/2. Hero is young TAG, has been winning for the session. Mostly has shown down the goods as table is filled with loose passive stations, not very profitable to bluff.

V is HUGE station. Has called two or three streets with over cards multiple times. Does not seem to have a fold button. Have seen him shove with air on bloated pots when shown weakness though so at least has it in him to bluff. However, cannot hand read well and does not appear to be a thinking player. Just really bad overall.

$300 effective stacks.

Pre: MP limps, V limps the button, Hero has JJ in SB and makes it 14 to go. BB folds, MP folds, V calls. ($32 Pot)

Flop: JTK
Hero leads for $40, V calls. ($112 Pot)

Turn: Q
Hero leads for $40, V calls. ($192 Pot)

(Thoughts?? I know he occasionally has an Ace or a 9 in this spot given he doesn't have a fold button with an over card in his hand but I range him more heavily towards a pair with a Q in his hand, which might have just become two pair, or maybe even just a K)

River: 3
Hero leads for $40.

I figure the Ace is a bigger part of my range than his, so the bet on the river serves 3 purposes. 1) To slow down a 9 and allow me to get to a cheap showdown.. 2) To discourage him to bluff me with a pair if checked (even thought the bet sizing is very transparent. However, this guy is THAT bad) 3) To extract marginal value from his two pairs and Ks.

Thoughts??

P.s. I was planning on b/f if he shoved river.

I'm fine with that river bet. A lot of times people go for thin value but don't size it that way. You need to size the river small enough so that 2-pair hands will sigh call.

I don't love overbets. IME every time I've overbet, I've only gotten called by better. But it's a small sample. We can't bet so big so that everything worse folds. I'm fine with $30 into $32 otf.


Could you put the pot amounts before the action though in the future?

Flop ($32)
Hero bets $40, call.

Turn ($112)...

Will do. Thanks for the input

What was your thinking on the turn? I hate that bet as you go from over betting the flop to 1/3ish pot on the turn, and that doesn't jibe to me. IMO the choice is check and reevaluate or 3/4ish pot unless I've missed something.

My thinking OTT is to not relinquish control of the hand. Like I said before, this guy is a HUGE station fish but is also capable of bluffing when shown weakness. I did not want to miss value from two-pair type hands. I also did not want to open myself up to getting potentially bluffed off my hand by checking to him. By leading out, I control the sizing and the pot a little better than by checking and reevaluating turn. Since an Ace is more likely in my range than his, I did not expect him to be raising a 9 OTT. Same rationale goes for river. My plan versus this particular villain was to b/f both turn and river.

Given reads (and we have to assume they are correct) then I think the turn is fine.

I'd likely bet/fold the river, but I'd go $65 or so. That's an entire hour of profit we are leaving on the table by not betting that $25 more. And I think he calls with the same range for $65.