late last saturday at the ccc simmering in vienna. I just got moved to this table 1 orbit ago. no info on villain (30 something years) other than he is most likely a czech midstakes cash reg.
I guess he asumes that i'm an internet kid (in his early 30s.)

so table is 7 handed atm. 2/5 with a live-straddle.

I (1430) open 7h7s utg+1 to 35,
co calls, straddler (villain with 2,5k) calls.

flop (112): Tc, 7d, 4c
checked to me and I bet 70, co folds, villain calls

turn (252): 3h
v check calls my 180 after like 15 seconds

river (612): 9d
checked to me and I bet 390, villain tanked for 20secs and said 'I think your bluffing' and then shoved for my eff. stack (755).

I think up to the river is standard (maybe size it different?) so i'm particulary interested on what to do otr?
all inputs are much appreciated.-thank you!

V is repping J8cc, 68cc.

I think 44, 56s raise some point before the river.

It is a tough spot. "I thin you bluffing" makes his hands really valueish to me. I'm not sure if he is leveling you or not.

In game, I'd crying call with the top of my range here.


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population-read on live czech cashgame pros:

THEY HAVE IT.

im a little puzzled by the speech tho.


think his range includes 100% 56, so you will never find enough bluffs to make this a clear call imo.

Nasty spot.

I think 44 likely raises flop. Guess one could argue 65s does as well, hoping to get a pass to the river. 3 combos of 44, 4 of 65s so the odds to call are there from a math perspective.

I think the speech is an attempt to stimulate a call, so I'd opt to make a tough fold.

Wow, that's a tough one. I agree the speech makes me want to fold, but could/would he do this with two pair?

At-table decision, but I probably sigh-fold (and NEVER show).

I would make a crying call here.

1. You have no reads on him, therefore, he presumably has no reads on you.

2. The reason to check raise river is if you believe enough of your opponent's worse range will fire river and call a reraise to offset the value you lose by allowing a check check.

3. On this board, most of your range will check back and even if you go for thin value, almost none of those hands will call a reraise.

4. He has no reason to believe you are the type that goes for thin value, so the optimal play for him should be to just lead.

5. Even if you do bet thinly, you're folding most of your hands to a reraise, so why would he allow you to dictate how much to bet instead of leading with a larger size to get you to call?

6. Assuming he read your hand absolutely perfectly, why would he shove for almost pot instead of reraising an amount that you can actually call? What hands is he trying to get to call here? Remember, the only point of check raise is to maximize value, but what's up with this sizing?

Also, from a game theory perspective, calling here is standard. This is near the top of your range, so calling vs unknown really can't be that big of a mistake even if there's truth to the theory that live players way underbluff in these spots.

So he's bluffing riv? No. Fold.

ask him how could I ever be bluffing here and see what he does LOL.

Can't fault a call vs an unknown.

thank you all for your comments!
@djevans -yeah I should have done that :-)

result:
I also thought that he has it just so often and folded after quite some time. He showed Jc5c.

Wow, I can't believe you fold top of your range. If you fold 77 here, you are essentially folding over 90% of your range. Are you calling TT?


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Yes, I would call TT. I know that I must win only 30.05% of the time to be breakeven. I asumed atm that he was almost never bluffing (people are imo way way underbluffing this spot in general) and maybe yeah he's speech threw me off a bit.

I guess speech did the work


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probably folding

You need to be good 26% here.

If you are calling TT but not 77 here the only reason is that you believe 77 is in his range when you have TT and TT is in his range when you have 77. If sets are in his range then all of them are including 44.

Even Just giving him a range of only TT, 44, 56cc and J8cc you have 37.5% equity. And only need 26% to call.

And he's going to be wider than this occasionally showing up with a goofy 2p or busted FD. Just a couple of those combos makes this an overwhelming call as you will be approaching 50%.

1430 effective with the straddle on is more like 140bb deep than 280bb. I don't think we are deep enough to fold mid set here but you've already posted results so take that with a grain of salt as it will seem results oriented.

But my point that has nothing to do with results is that If you call TT here I don't really see how you can fold 77 unless I'm missing something.

@cammando thank you! yes my math was off. (don't know what went wrong simply dividing 755 by 2902.)

I wish you hadn't posted results so quickly.

I'm not folding here because I feel like 56/TT is very discounted because of x turn x riv. He's repping like 2 combos of straights. He could maybe have T9 putting us on KK+. Also were getting a great price.

I'm not super happy about calling because most people at 2/5 are almost never bluffing here. However, think about what our hand/range looks like.

This hand is literally the best hand to have here. It's better than TT because TT blocks T9 combos. If you're villain with T9 and you called the turn, aren't you x/jam riv?

Never folding this riv for this price

You cant fold like ever. Odds way too good.
Liveplayers way too bad to play x/c, x/c, x/r with nuts on a flush draw board. If he happens to have the 86, than Nice Hand sir.


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I would have called because of his speech.

One thing I have learned in recent cash games is some people are counter-counter speeching to throw you off. Make you think they are weak, so you'll think they are strong, when they are indeed weak.

Sounds confusing at first, but really it's not.

First time I fell for it was when I had the 3rd nut flush, and folded a huge all-in to a guy with only pocket AAs. I tanked and put him on AhKh hearts due to the preflop raise. My QhJh ended up being good, but I folded and cost myself a lot of preflop bets and his all-in which I more than had covered.

The counter speech play is a newer tool and people use it more often than you'd think. Best advice is ignore their speech and pay more attn to the play.

In your position, his calling led me to believe he was on a straight or flush draw, and his all in made me think he missed. I would not put him calling such bets on a gutshot, so J8/68 is out. Flush draw or 56 open-ended only--which busted.

Definitely 100% a call based on his play and final move.

@Viking Guy -- didn't 56 get there on turn? What am I missing here?