Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
This doesn't make sense. If I expect him to call, say, 15% of the time with bluffcatchers, then I should both bet my K hands and bluff. One of the keys to this hand imo is how unlikely V is to be strong here. Given his flop and turn play he is quite unlikely to have either a flush or a king.
Considering only his frequency for calling with worse isn't sufficient to determine whether value makes sense. If he's calling 15% with worse and 16% with better, our value bet fails. By the same token, if some bet got called 2% by worse, but only 1% by better, it would be profitable.
I'm pretty sure you know that. Is there an assumption above I'm not catching?
Your point about his range is well taken. I should have considered that. See below.
Quote:
I'm not sure if this looks like a good bluff spot to SB since he thinks we have to put flushes in his range.
In the first para, you're suggesting we should think he doesn't have a K or flush. But the sentence above suggests he thinks we can't know that. I'm not sure we have sufficient reads on V to be confident he's getting it 100% wrong.
OK, V's range.
V has shown he can squeeze with ATC, but didn't 3b us here, instead choosing to play a pot HU OOP with SPR 20. I'm going to guess he put snug H on a snug range and didn't figure enough folds for a light 3b. Let's say he's playing something speculative like...
22 - JJ, A2s+, 54s+, 75s+, AQo+, and some fudge factor. Some of those may well be discounted because they'd fold or 3b for value.
I assume he's continuing with any piece of the flop, which is basically draws, Q's, and 9's.
OTT, he has some 9's that fold (97s and A9s). He has some double gutties around an 8 (T8s, 98s) that he might let go (but I'll leave them in). Otherwise, I think he's continuing with everything.
OTR, we're behind everything except 6 combos of AQ
He has 7 flushes
10 straights (8 of them with an 8)
6 sets
8 2P
6 TP (AQ)
I think there are arguments for taking flushes out of his range:
* He'd lead or x/r to capture value before board gets scary
I think there are arguments for leaving them in
* We don't have much worse that can call a x/r
* His playing passively lets us continue bluffing
* In the unlikely event we do have the boss flush, he's going to experience an certain uncomfortable feeling of fullness.
* Unless we think he's bluffy, leading out tends to let us play more correctly against him.
With no flushes...
We chop 6/30 = 20% so our EV is 110 if we check.
A pot sized bet would require folds 55%+ (17 combos) or TP, 2P and half of sets. (This assumes he never bluff jams.)
A jam would require folding 71% (22 combos) or TP, 2P, sets, and 2 straights with an 8.
If he has flushes...
We chop 6/37 = 89 equity for checking back.
A pot sized bet would require folds 55%+ (21 combos) or TP, 2P, all sets, and an 8 straight. (Again assuming no bluff jams.)
A jam would require folds 71% (27 combos) or TP, 2P, all sets, nearly all 8 straight.
As always, it all depends on assumptions. I'm not particularly married to the ones I made, but I think they're reasonable.