Thoughts on all streets appreciated.

Hero - Late 20s white guy. Table started about an hour ago and Hero has been playing 1-2 hands per orbit. Hasn't shown down a hand yet. $270 behind

Villain - Mid 30s white guy with ear buds in. Likes to limp/call but i've also seen him play hands aggressively (i.e. All In preflop for ~$400 from the big blind after a Hijack Raise and a SB call). I've also seen him lay down TPTK once.

On to the hand:

1/2 NL

Hero is UTG+2 and opens for $15 with AK
Folds to V on the button who calls. Blinds Fold.

Pot $30 Flop: A 9 9

Hero bets $25. Villain pauses for a 1 Mississippi count and Calls.

Pot $80 Turn: K

Hero bets $50. Villain pauses for a 1 Mississippi count and calls.

Pot $180 River: 7

Hero?

Good sizing. I put a blocker bet on the river 100 sounds right. Folding to any reraise.

B/F line

Pre - I may have opened for a little less but 15 is fine if people are loose pre at the table.

Flop - Good sizing.

Turn - Good sizing again.

River - So there's 2 aces and 2 nines left in the deck, so he's about equally likely to have either of these hands. He could also have a missed flush draw. Betting performs best against A-x, checking performs best against the missed flush draws (assuming we always check/call), and checking=betting against 9-X (again assuming we always check/call when he has 9-X).

Overall, betting should perform best. We are probably beat here like 40% of the time. I'm betting smallish, about $80, and hoping he won't raise if he has 9-X....I'll probably fold to a raise.

It sounds like V's "strength" is aggression, not intelligence. I'm thinking of how often he plays a suited connector otb that has a 9 in it, and it's reasonable that he'd see a flop with T9/89/J9/etc but to not raise otf or ott doesn't sync with his previous hands. So I'm confident in excluding trip 9s from his range. Since we have an A, there are as many A's as 9's left in the deck, but way more hands including an A that he'd play than hands with a 9.

So now he's pretty much hoping to tie with his Ax, 9s on board and K kicker. That lack of intelligence is also good because there's probably no way he's thinking of how bad it is to call hoping to tie at showdown. You got a PSB left, I'd bet $75-$100. And I'd be b/f'ing, so probably going on the lighter side of that $75-$100 range. You don't have a lot of room to b/f but it's a level to think he'd raise to get you off a chop with A8-AQ. He's tank-calling with those hands, not raising with them.

But I don't think you'd post this hand if you won with AAKK9 against his AA99K, so he probably did manage to slow play a 9 and you bet too much otr to be able to fold.

Hero bets $75. Villain Ships it. Hero?

Fold now. WP.

Hero did indeed fold. I wanted to post this for a couple of reasons:

1) Curious about my sizing on the river. Stack sizes seemed really awkward to me and i was unsure how to b/f without committing myself to the river. Any thoughts on if leading for $50 vs. $75 might get the same result? I imagine probably not unless villain was super passive.

2) I've been working hard lately incorporating the b/f on the river line into my game and I thought this was a pretty good example.

Good bet on river, $75-$80 likely gets paid off any A-x. You would expect him to raise a 9 on the turn, so always feel comfortable betting. Fold to any shove. You're not going to be good enough times to justify calling off. Nothing wrong with how you played the hand, just an unlucky spot.

I would've check-called here. I'm also terrible at bet-folding on the river. That's a hole in my game, fwiw.

That said, I like the check-call here for two reasons:

-I think he'll bet some A-xs here for us. When we check, I expect him to value bet a lot of his aces, figuring that he's chopping at worst.

-He'll also bet 9s, but he'll bet them smaller, hoping to get called by our range. (He should go all-in with trip 9s here, but a lot of 1-2 villains won't. They were so sneaky just calling till the river, now they want to make sure you pay them off.)

-He'll bet some busted draws on the river as well. And, critically, there's a tiny chance that he'll spazz-shove the river with his busted draw. I know, I know, "1/2 villains never bluff-raise the river." That's the rule of thumb, but it occasionally gets violated -- particularly when they're pissed that the draw didn't come through and they think they can magically represent trips.

Betting the river gets a crying call from the two aces in his range. Checking the river gets to call those aces sometimes (=), saves money and/or tough decision against the two nines in his range (=/+), and makes money against the busted draws in his range (+++).

C/c'ing rivers isn't something that should be happening a lot. If you think you're behind, c/f. If you think you're ahead, bet. You really need to think V was on a busted draw AND is going to stab at it with his missed draw to be c/c'ing here. Andrew Brokos hates c/c'ing rivers, I like his insight, and agree with it.

Does a dry trips raise the river here? You did open UTG, AA and KK are possible holdings for Hero. He could have 99 ,KK, 97, A9 or K9suited.

If I am Villain here with 9T, I am probably raising the turn not the river.

It seems to me that Villain is repping a super tight range of hands.


As for how Hero played the hand. When Villain calls 2 streets on this board, you are only ahead of Ax's hoping for a chop. This is the only combo that you are getting value from. Considering he could have a few more hands that are beating Hero, the value range is super thin for a river bet.

If we have a naked 9:
3x AA
3x KK
3x A9 which could/should be discounted to 1 if we think it's only A9s
3x K9 again, maybe be 1 or 0 depending on the suit of the 9 we have, and honestly, most people don't raise K9

So at most 12 combos we lose to, and more likely 6 - 8.
There are 9 combos of AK by it self, let alone random spaz.
So if we think that we will get called by that entire range (and most bad players and some good players will bet/call not bet/fold AK here) then yes we can raise 9x for value.

Thanks for all the insight. V actually showed his hand afterwards so if there's any interest I can post his hand or anyone interest they can PM me.

What was Vs hand?

Wow I'm never folding in a thousand years. He represents so thin A9 K9 99.

I really like the small bet, assuming it's to induce and we call everytime. I tend to call a lot when aggressive V represent so few combos of value hand.

There is ONE key tell that makes me bet/call here: the turn snap call.

Turn snap call is never a value hand unless he is nutted to oblivion, the chance he is spazzing is way more likely then him being ultra nutted. A turn snap call indicates weakness very often because it means V had an easy decision: raising never crossed his mind.

V showed Ad9d

I would of paid him off.

What would you have done if he raised OTF to say 80-100?

If he raised to $100 or so i probably would have shoved.