1/2 Effective stacks 300. Table was pretty passive and recently 5x openings were getting too many callers.

Hero - 675 AsKc. Hero has been playing fairly TAG last few hours and is one of the only players 3! on the table.

Villain - 300 in CO. Mid 20s and appears to be a reg. Hero doesnt recall any previous experience with villain before this session. Some HH with villain a couple orbits ago getting all-in preflop KK>QQ in hero's favor.

OTTH

One limper to hero in LJ. Hero raises to 15. HJ calls. CO calls. Blinds and limpers fold.

Flop KsQs7h. Pot $43. Hero bets 25. Villain calls.

Turn Qh. Pot $93. Check check.

River Jd. Pot $93. Hero?

OOP on the two-tone board, I'd lead larger, $30 or even $35. The value of future streets is reduced because we're OOP against two V's and there are several draws that have decent equity.

I like the turn check for pot control and to set up value no the river.

I'd b/f the river $60. I think that's small enough to get calls from a K, but large enough not to excite a bluff.

Bet the turn.

Why?

I do not question; only seek enlightenment.

Because we can still get value from Kx, and JT and it's highly unlikely villain has a Q in his hand, especially after not raising flop (if he had KQ).

Why would calling the flop make it highly unlikely that villain has a Q?

I edited my post to say if he had KQ on the flop.

There's just not many combos of Qx that can call a flop bet since the Q hit on the turn, but if he does then it's a fairly easy b/f.

Yeah, fair points.

I'm not sure about getting value from his kings (he'd have to put us on PFR and two streets with KT is he has KJ or K9 if he has KT, and in case he doesn't have a lot of kings). I also think his straight draws are folding on this paired, two-tone board.

But he does have a ton of flush draws and we don't want to give them a free card.

As you say, b/f.

I assume we're x/f the river (especially if a spade, heart, or to a lesser extent A or 9 comes) without a read V will bluff his busted draws?

If the draws brick out I would lean closer to x/c depending on sizing and live reads. It's rare for him to have a value hand >AK that bets the river that neglected to raise the flop or turn.

river is a C/C or C/F. Only thing that really got there was 9T spades or AT spades.

but donking the river is bad because if you get raised, you are probably beat. AND, you could still get bluff raised from missed spades.

if you check the river, you might get some money from missed spades draws and you still can call most bets

I like the hand played up to turn. On the turn I am betting around half pot because we are still getting value out of everything in his range except for a Q. If he raises on the turn it is a pretty easy fold. At 1/3 I wouldnt be very concerned with him raising without having us smashed here so it is a pretty simple bet/fold on the turn. The Jd river I would either put out a small value bet, hoping to get paid by kx or if I felt this opponent was capable of bluffing then I would be check calling to get value from missed draws. If I checked and he put out a large bet then you can always consider folding. Checking the turn makes your hand fairly face up and makes you miss value from all K except kq and you miss value from all draws. If you check and he bets 50 ott, then what? You may end up costing yourself by letting him take control of the pot instead of you keeping control of the pot and making him play his hand with a more defined range.

Im not entirely sold that b/f on the turn is that easy of a decision. There are certainly a few possibilities left for villain to have Qx and I also wanted to exude some pot control in the situation and see how villain reacts. Personally, I think b/c turn and then c/x river would make more sense. B/F seems a little exploitable to me in this situation.

I would bet turn and maybe go thin otr. Just make sure you size down on both streets so that you get looked up often. You will almost never get raised here unless they can beat AK but they are very likely to call with worse. Unless you plan on being able to check fold to reasonably sized bets I think we need to bet turn and river to avoid tough spots and to get value st this level. Unless we think we can check to induce bluffs, that would change everything. As played I would bet river.

Pleas name them - the specific combos.

AQ, QJ, QT, Q9, Q8,

V could easily flat the flop in position with these holdings. Not only may he still have the best hand, he can turn his hand into a bluff to rep spades. Additionally, he can improve to 2 pair or trips and stack an opponent that overplays AA or AK.

With that said, I doubt most opponents at 1-2 would try to turn their hand into a bluff and rep spades so I agree that Qx is largely discounted, but only given the V description.

In loose games with loose opponents, it's standard for opponents to call $25 on the flop with second pair.

In this spot, I think your recommendation of barreling the turn is a good play, as it's just too likely that this opponent has a weaker K or a spade draw with a gut shot. We would hate to have to call a jam on the river when we check, but how many 1-2 opponents are making big river bluffs with missed draws?

Hero bets 35. Villain raises to 110. Hero?

The time to bet was the turn, not the river, and certainly not 1/3 pot. Call and say nice hand if he shows you AT.

Game conditions vary, but I'd expect a 1/2 player (even a reg) to x/r 55BB on the river as a bluff way, way less than 24%. Even against regs at higher limits, this is very rarely a bluff IME.

Unless you were planning to x/f the river I don't see how you fold here when you use a sizing that induces bluff raises.

Hand was misplayed at multiple points but b/f the river @ 3x 1/3 PSB would probably be the worst.

Based on the line you think was best, how would you play river if villain flats turn and same river peels?

I would be b/f the turn and x/eval the river (mostly calling reasonable bets on this river).