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Im not sure about this fold. Overpair OTF 220bb eff Im not sure about this fold. Overpair OTF 220bb eff

09-01-2014 , 12:44 AM
Hello,

I played this hand in Argentina. The game is 5/10 (like1/2 in thr Sates) is the lowest level in this room. The table has been very passive so far, I have been playing for almost 4 hours and Im up 100bb. I hava been active also straighforward mostly, just like everybody at the table.

Villain in this hand bought for max (2,500) and looks like he likes to play loose. He has been playing for less than eight hands limping and raising and was down 200 when the hand started.

4 players limp and button raises 80. This is mostly an aq, ak, tt,jj type of hand.. In this game people tend to raise up to 100 or 125 with big pairs when ip if there are several limpers. Villain is in sb and calls (2.300 stack... Bt has 1.100). Im in bb with JJ and 3bet to 225. Both players call.

Pot: 715. Flop Ts 7c 5c

Villain checks, i bet 480, bt folds and Villains moves all his chip forward. He goes allin for 2.100 total so is 1600 for me to call.

I tought his range here was 55, 77 leeeess likely tt, flush draws with overs (i dont have a club) liike kqcc aqcc or actc..

If Inthink his hand is mostly draws with overcards... Is this a call?

How do you play this hand diferently?
Im not sure about this fold. Overpair OTF 220bb eff Quote
09-01-2014 , 03:41 AM
once Vil calls raise, you should 3betting bigger.

If you are ranging him just on sets and FD and overs type hands alng with say A10cc u got like 29% equity. obv not enough.

so all depends if you think your range is good or not.
Im not sure about this fold. Overpair OTF 220bb eff Quote
09-01-2014 , 07:28 AM
Based on the type of player you describe V as, you seem to have a pretty narrow range for him. Obviously you have a small sample size, but the way you describe him I would put him on more draws and semibluffs, but if his range is what you think it is, then you have to fold.
Im not sure about this fold. Overpair OTF 220bb eff Quote
09-01-2014 , 07:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey913
Based on the type of player you describe V as, you seem to have a pretty narrow range for him. Obviously you have a small sample size, but the way you describe him I would put him on more draws and semibluffs, but if his range is what you think it is, then you have to fold.
to expand on this a bit... 4betAndFold, what in villains range are you favored to win? You are ahead right now of two big clubs but as you most likely know, villain is a slight favorite with two cards to come. Even if villain has the Jack of clubs with one overcard club, you only win 52.12% of the time according to Two Dimes.

Even hands such as T with any other Club is a coin toss with you slightly behind against overs.

If every hand villain can hold here is at best a coin toss, it's an easy fold even if you are ahead of him for now. This isn't a tournament; why play like it's one? Avoid the flips (or worse) and get it in good later.
Im not sure about this fold. Overpair OTF 220bb eff Quote
09-01-2014 , 09:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NYCNative
to expand on this a bit... 4betAndFold, what in villains range are you favored to win? You are ahead right now of two big clubs but as you most likely know, villain is a slight favorite with two cards to come. Even if villain has the Jack of clubs with one overcard club, you only win 52.12% of the time according to Two Dimes.
You don't have to be ahead right now to call with how bloated this pot is. Pot is 715+480+2100~3200 and the call is right about 1600 so the call is offering 2:1 so you only need 33% equity to call.

Against a range of sets (without TT) and FD+overs or FD+pairs you have around the equity required.
Board: T75
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
SB*****65.17%**65.08%***0.09%*{ 77, 55, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, AcTc, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc }
BB*****34.83%**34.75%***0.09%*{ JhJs }

That seems like a very tight range considering your description of this villain. At least it seems you should add in all AcXc hands which makes it a little better.

Board: T75
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
SB*****60.25%**60.18%***0.06%*{ 77, 55, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, AcTc, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac6c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c }
BB*****39.75%**39.69%***0.06%*{ JhJs }

Also if he's as loose as you think he is he could also have combos of 89s, 86s, or 64s. Adding in just 89s helps your equity a lot.

Board: T75
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
SB*****55.70%**55.65%***0.05%*{ 77, 55, 98s, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, AcTc, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac6c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c }
BB*****44.30%**44.25%***0.05%*{ JhJs }

As played I think I have to call given the pot odds after the bet on the flop. I think a larger 3bet preflop is definitely better, but now I don't think you can bet fold given how draw heavy this flop is without many made hands other than sets. Realistically, I think that if he ends up calling preflop with a random suited over with clubs he also shoves (Kc6c etc.) which helps. Also generally my read is that loose players do not raise as large or shove with flopped sets (even though this board is so wet and it wouldn't be a bad play) as compared to tighter older players who are only concerned about protecting their hand. The c/r ai seems to indicate more of a draw.
Im not sure about this fold. Overpair OTF 220bb eff Quote
09-01-2014 , 10:48 AM
Even if he has sets and all broadway FDs, you only have 31% equity. Given you've seen him play only 8 hands, I'm happy to fold. If he's shoving light, he's going to do that a lot and you'll get another chance at him.
Im not sure about this fold. Overpair OTF 220bb eff Quote

      
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