Quote:
Originally Posted by NYCNative
to expand on this a bit... 4betAndFold, what in villains range are you favored to win? You are ahead right now of two big clubs but as you most likely know, villain is a slight favorite with two cards to come. Even if villain has the Jack of clubs with one overcard club, you only win 52.12% of the time according to Two Dimes.
You don't have to be ahead right now to call with how bloated this pot is. Pot is 715+480+2100~3200 and the call is right about 1600 so the call is offering 2:1 so you only need 33% equity to call.
Against a range of sets (without TT) and FD+overs or FD+pairs you have around the equity required.
Board: T
7
5
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
SB*****65.17%**65.08%***0.09%*{ 77, 55, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, AcTc, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc }
BB*****34.83%**34.75%***0.09%*{ JhJs }
That seems like a very tight range considering your description of this villain. At least it seems you should add in all AcXc hands which makes it a little better.
Board: T
7
5
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
SB*****60.25%**60.18%***0.06%*{ 77, 55, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, AcTc, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac6c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c }
BB*****39.75%**39.69%***0.06%*{ JhJs }
Also if he's as loose as you think he is he could also have combos of 89s, 86s, or 64s. Adding in just 89s helps your equity a lot.
Board: T
7
5
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
SB*****55.70%**55.65%***0.05%*{ 77, 55, 98s, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, AcTc, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac6c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c }
BB*****44.30%**44.25%***0.05%*{ JhJs }
As played I think I have to call given the pot odds after the bet on the flop. I think a larger 3bet preflop is definitely better, but now I don't think you can bet fold given how draw heavy this flop is without many made hands other than sets. Realistically, I think that if he ends up calling preflop with a random suited over with clubs he also shoves (Kc6c etc.) which helps. Also generally my read is that loose players do not raise as large or shove with flopped sets (even though this board is so wet and it wouldn't be a bad play) as compared to tighter older players who are only concerned about protecting their hand. The c/r ai seems to indicate more of a draw.