Villain is MAWG, super tight, seen him play three hands in 2 hours. He’s always opened to $15. He showed one hand on the river and it was AQ.
I been playing for a couple hours and showed QQ. Won a bunch of small pots with C bets. Image is tight.
This is a 2/5 game

OTTH:
I have 800 behind and he has me covered.

Villain raises utg+2 to $15, folds to me in the CO. I flat with 55 and go heads up to a board of 1065 pot is $37
Villain checks to me..??
I bet $25, he flats.
Turn is J he checks again..I bet $40..he raises to $100

Here’s my thought process..
-He doesn’t have an over pair cuz he would lead out on that wet board
-I think I can discount 10J for the same reason above
-Could he make that small raise with combo draw?? MAYBE but not likely to that sizing.

What is your thought process and how do you proceed?

I’ll update with what I did and results tomorrow!

I probably call and re-evaluate river. It's 60 to call to win 227, so I don't think you can fold yet. If he bets on diamond river, I can probably lay down, because it means he has flush or his non-flush hand is so strong he's willing to value bet even though it's possible you have flush.

Hands you beat are AJdd, KJdd, QJdd, AQdd, AKdd, KQdd, JTs. How often can he have these hands vs. JJ, TT, 66? I'm not a math expert so somebody is going to have to do the range analysis.

Bet more on turn.

AP call and decide riv. If he checks, bet on the smaller side.

No offense, but aren't you a pro? This is very basic math. Even if you discount some of those holdings the math is easy. Just count the combos.

There are 9 combos you are beating and 9 combos beating you. JJ and JTs should probably both be discounted based on how he played it, but they'd be discounted by the same amount. Personally, I think there's at least a bit of WTF in his range as well, but let's just go with your range.

If we GII now against that range (and if it's all calling if we shove) we have 60% equity. The problem is that all of the bigger sets call, and we actually price out most of the combo draws/pair+draws given stack sizes, so even though we are ahead of his range, we don't want to shove here.

Agree with call turn, and eval river. I likely fold/check back a diamond river and call/bet a non-diamond for a small bet.

What would be a more appropriate sizing? I bet $40 into $87 to get a light call from any two.

Don't try to get value from any two, especially not OTT, especially especially if there was action OTF. Always assume that your Vs have a piece of the board and bet to get value from that. They almost always have something if they got this far, and tiny bets are leaving a ton of money on the table/giving great odds to draw. On a board this wet, about 2/3 pot is prob good ott.

I'm just getting back into the understanding the math of poker after being away from the game for more than a year.

When I'm playing, I'm constantly thinking about ranges, but I don't calculate exact number of combos. The math that goes on in my mind is mostly stack sizes, SPR, FE, implied odds, direct pot odds. I'm thinking more about dynamics and my image and my opponent's adjustments and how they affect what my bets look like to V. It takes up a lot of mental space, the whole psychological aspect, so I let the math run in the background.

It's definitely a weakness of mine. I was a natural in mathematics as a youngster and even tutored math on and off for ten years, but never spent time doing the deep range analysis that many posters on here are known for. I'm pretty happy reading all the analysis that other people do and hope it seeps into my mind a bit.

I am raising this turn. Making it $300.

We are so far ahead of his raising range, I can't fathom not raising. And charging his semi-bluffs.

He will likely auto check river. We can evaluate again on river. But I am likely jamming river.

Gonna run into 10-J, lots of diamond draws. Weird played over pairs (including JJ).



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This seems like AdJd more than anything else.

He could easily have TT or Jxdd but apart from that, it's quite hard to range him. I'm never folding but I probably just flat.

RESULTS
I flat the turn..
River comes a black queen.
He bets $100..I thought about making a thin value raise but didn't want to get jammed on and have to fold.

He had AA

I know, I'm as shocked as you.

I think you played it fine. NH.

Not shocked. Super tight guy wants to see a safe turn before committing more money. I think you ranged him way too tight and caused you to not raise the turn. He might have folded though so not sure you missed that much value.

Some super tight players think AA is a monster. They waited hours for AA, when they get it they slow play to 'trap'.

AA is nut hand to check here.

Flop is super dry (not wet like you stated).

It is highly unlikely you connected. I would expect a fold majority of time I cbet.

With AA we are not scared of over card hitting.

So I actually like his check on flop. I do it quite a bit. When guys just auto bet after I PFR and check flops.

Actually think he should have gone bigger with turn raise and river bet.

Well played. I hope your raising river, if it hadn't helped his range so much.



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Say hindsight is 20/20 all you want, I was reading this thread thinking to myself "This guy has AA." I sometimes wonder if I'm the only llsnl player who sees people to crazy stuff with AA every day. People limp AA preflop from the cutoff, put in bizarre raises, etc.

His turn raise size in itself indicates that he has no clue what he's doing. You should be putting in another raise on the turn, if he has a set so be it, just pay him, and at that I would expect it to be specifically 1010 which is 3 combos. If you're scared at all here you're scared of 3 freaking combos. Doubt he has it in him to raise 66 pre to $15. With JJ he'd be scared of an overcard coming, he's betting 100%.

There's a lot of value in just getting money into the pot in spots like these vs massive fish like the villain in this hand. If the hands are reversed and OP has AA this guy would probably mess around and not stack OP with his set. If it's set over set both players are stacking each other every time, it's an irrelevant outcome. It's a massively negative outcome to not stack this guy with the set of 5's. Seems like the kinda guy who doesn't have it in him to fold Aces.

Why would you be shocked, this is play #1 in the OMC playbook and as described this MAWG is an OMC apprentice.

I would have ranged him not exactly on AA, but AA most likely, followed by KK then AJ and TT-QQ.

Lmao, OMC playbook That book would be fun as hell to read