Quote:
Originally Posted by AintNoLimit
Supp Princess, good2cu
Interesting eh? Now what do you think is the overall EV figuring on avg. only one villain calls flop? Or would you think that would be a smart assumption?
Well the description "
all players are routine, average players for the limit, maybe 30 year old locals who show up after leaving their jobs or businesses several times a week to play" can lead to different things.
- Some of these players play 50% of hands, open 3% of hands, and never fold to a 3bet.
- Others within the same description play 50% of hands, open 15% of hands, and never fold to a 3bet.
- Less than 8% within the same description play 11% of hands, open 7% of hands, and fold to a 3-bet 50% or more.
Although you said, "no handhistories", I think we can differentiate between (1) and (2) in only one round:
- If the player open limps in the first round he is more (1) then (2), ect.
But given no handhistories, it is safe to assume neither villian is (3).
Poker is a game of reads. We really don't have any reads, other then player-pool reads. The problem is the equation falls too easily to +EV or -EV based on things we can't safely assume to be true or false, without doubt:
- Does V1 or V2 show up with AJ?
- Does V1 or V2 show up with KJ?
- Is V2 a some-what standard LLSNL player who could easily have AA (many LLSNL player are this bad)?
- If V1 folds, would V2 call with ATo?
Exactly how we construct each players' range is unclear. Different assumptions lead to different conclusions:
0.2*150 + 0.8*(0.25*300 - 0.75*150) = 0
0.25*150 + 0.75*(0.15*300 - 0.85*150) < 0
0.3*150 + 0.7*(0.3*300 - 0.7*150) > 0
It reminds me of Angleo's first video from his poker enlightenment series where he talks about many decisions be unclear, possibly neutral EV, and totally up for debate. It also reminds be of the veneer video where he keeps saying, "poker is hard without reads".
But, so as to not avoid the very important question (as many people like to do), I will place myself in your spot. I sit down as my first hand in the BB and pick up AKo. V1 opens and V2 calls as you say. In this case, I can see myself sometimes calling with AKo. And sometimes I would 3bet it. In both cases hero can x/f without being exploited (with my ranges). So, I'm fine with x/f.
But that is how I currently play. In the past I would have shoved, and I might change my mind out this in the future. But without a super-duper-super quantum computer, I don't think we can prove which line has the greatest EV.
I had a superstition that posting on 2+2 was bad luck. I didn't make a post for a long time until Saturday night, after going on a sick heater. Then, Sunday I lost $900 (it was my fault - I hero called off one, and bluffed off another). Heater over. Connection? IDK. I hope it picks up again. But I know from Angelo that I'm thinking bad. I need to improve on that.