when you 3b AK its not just a squeeze. do you even know what a squeeze is?

post flop when you get 2 callers and only have 1 PSB left, you have limited fold equity. how often do you expect to get it by both players? you really think a random 1/2 fish is folding Jx?

depending on the players you are facing, i dont disagree with you. but readless, c/f is the best play.

And my argument is we shouldn't be 3betting with those conditions in your case. I love the conditions. Its called bluffing with a back up plan. So even though I'm readless. They either make a mistake by folding the best hand. Or they call and have to dodge outs. Next time we have an overpair we will definitely get max value and our money back. Or the play sets up future 3bet lights.

AK is actually the first hand I like to 3bet with at a table. We get AK a lot so plenty of history we can learn from that hand. AK imo is the best hand in holdem. But that's another topic. In the ilcd chronicles$.

Thread reopened until the mod who closed it comes along and gives the why and what not. Better get your fix in quick!

It would be nice to see a thread in which ILCD and ILCD-response posts didn't muck up the conversation.

Anyway, I know ANL's high quality of posts and I feel like there is more to the OP than an obvious check/fold. What are you trying to each us?

Also, it would be nice to know what sort of "inside conversation" ANL and princess are having right now. What was that math referring to?

The mods would do great if they just deleted every ILCD post in LLSNL.

I felt it interesting how this is basically neutral (with my given ranges anyhow) unless you figure one villain will fold. This turns positive in my favor (shoving) if the second villain folds any reasonable hand like AT suited or even better possibly due to the first players call.

This hand will come up fairly often in low limit 3 bet hands, and so I wondered how many would be staunch/adamant about one way or the other without having a calculator in hand.

For me, Im shoving since I believe the 2nd player folding is a fairly significant factor which will not show up on paper equities.

I found the different views interesting which makes poker what it is. Obviously if the players are not very loose calling 3 bets, then we are smoked, but i gave ranges for the routine friday night 1-2 players. Also if i think both call with any piece I am c/f.

3 betting these days is definitely a big tool to be used (even at low limit) thus skirmishes over how to 3 bet and defend I would think to be super valid.

Can you repost your ranges + calculations? I can't find it among the ILCD and ILCD-related garbage.

I'm pretty sure this is clear check/fold in most general situations.

You criticize me and the man just said shove is optimal. Not c/f, please reframe from insults. I can only let so much slide.

Well the description "all players are routine, average players for the limit, maybe 30 year old locals who show up after leaving their jobs or businesses several times a week to play" can lead to different things.

1. Some of these players play 50% of hands, open 3% of hands, and never fold to a 3bet.
2. Others within the same description play 50% of hands, open 15% of hands, and never fold to a 3bet.
3. Less than 8% within the same description play 11% of hands, open 7% of hands, and fold to a 3-bet 50% or more.

Although you said, "no handhistories", I think we can differentiate between (1) and (2) in only one round:

• If the player open limps in the first round he is more (1) then (2), ect.

But given no handhistories, it is safe to assume neither villian is (3).

Poker is a game of reads. We really don't have any reads, other then player-pool reads. The problem is the equation falls too easily to +EV or -EV based on things we can't safely assume to be true or false, without doubt:

• Does V1 or V2 show up with AJ?
• Does V1 or V2 show up with KJ?
• Is V2 a some-what standard LLSNL player who could easily have AA (many LLSNL player are this bad)?
• If V1 folds, would V2 call with ATo?

Exactly how we construct each players' range is unclear. Different assumptions lead to different conclusions:

0.2*150 + 0.8*(0.25*300 - 0.75*150) = 0

0.25*150 + 0.75*(0.15*300 - 0.85*150) < 0

0.3*150 + 0.7*(0.3*300 - 0.7*150) > 0

It reminds me of Angleo's first video from his poker enlightenment series where he talks about many decisions be unclear, possibly neutral EV, and totally up for debate. It also reminds be of the veneer video where he keeps saying, "poker is hard without reads".

But, so as to not avoid the very important question (as many people like to do), I will place myself in your spot. I sit down as my first hand in the BB and pick up AKo. V1 opens and V2 calls as you say. In this case, I can see myself sometimes calling with AKo. And sometimes I would 3bet it. In both cases hero can x/f without being exploited (with my ranges). So, I'm fine with x/f.

But that is how I currently play. In the past I would have shoved, and I might change my mind out this in the future. But without a super-duper-super quantum computer, I don't think we can prove which line has the greatest EV.

I had a superstition that posting on 2+2 was bad luck. I didn't make a post for a long time until Saturday night, after going on a sick heater. Then, Sunday I lost $900 (it was my fault - I hero called off one, and bluffed off another). Heater over. Connection? IDK. I hope it picks up again. But I know from Angelo that I'm thinking bad. I need to improve on that.

Betting 20 on the flop is better than shoving!

You can setup equations where both player call, sure. But then you will need to decrease hero's equity when called.

0.2*150 + 0.8*(0.1*450 - 0.9*150) < 0
0.4*150 + 0.6*(0.1*450 - 0.9*150) > 0

It's still unclear.

Here is how I'm currently thinking about it. Pre-flop hero has three options:

1. Fold
2. Raise
3. Call.

Hero should choose the option that has the greatest EV. It is clear that (2) and (3) are greater than (1) so hero should choose (2) or (3). However, it is not clear if (2) greater EV than (3) or vise-versa. Hero should choose between (2) or (3), the choice is marginal.

Note: This choice is not always marginal. Only in this example it seems to be. In many cases it is clear that (2) has more EV than (3) and vice-versa. In this case it seems marginal b/c we are w/o reads.

But, addressing the HH, as played, hero chose (2). Having chosen (2), on this flop it is unclear whether hero should shove or x/f. Whatever hero gains by shoving he would lose by x/f. So there doesn't seem to be a way to answer the question as to which line makes the most money (see the various equations I posted in this thread and the other).

But for a 3-betting range that exploited V1 and V2's likely tendencies, I find that hero can x/f without being exploited. But, whether that x/f play has more or less EV then shoving, I can't be sure.

This is the easiest check/fold. Cannot really believe that we are debating this.

A typical live NL Villain defending CO raise against a BB 3-bet smacks this flop. Similarly, many live NL players will over-call from BTN with a range that smacks this flop.

It's not even close, and any posters suggesting that shoving AKo here is a good play is seriously off his game.

How much of that range can call a shove in a 3bet pot though?

Funny thing is that most live NL Villains who call 25% of their stack preflop with marginal hands are very likely to call us with Tx or better.

If the CO folds, the BTN might even occasionally hero-call us with 77-99 because he "puts us on AK." Seems weird, I know, but these are the same guys who set mine for 25% stacks preflop, so it's not unheard of for these geniuses to hero-call here occasionally with 77-99.

FWIW, this decision is closer if Hero has AdKx instead of AKo because the extra backdoor FD equity combined with the extra Ad blocker fold equity (Villains can't have Adxd NFD if we have the Ad).

Then I wouldn't mind a shove so much.

Basically a AdKx shove here is OK, but AKo shove is -EV.

[QUOTE=Princess Azula (2);37126726]Well the description "all players are routine, average players for the limit, maybe 30 year old locals who show up after leaving their jobs or businesses several times a week to play" can lead to different things.

• Does V1 or V2 show up with AJ?
• Does V1 or V2 show up with KJ?
• Is V2 a some-what standard LLSNL player who could easily have AA (many LLSNL player are this bad)?
• If V1 folds, would V2 call with ATo?

Exactly how we construct each players' range is unclear. Different assumptions lead to different conclusions:

0.2*150 + 0.8*(0.25*300 - 0.75*150) = 0

0.25*150 + 0.75*(0.15*300 - 0.85*150) < 0

0.3*150 + 0.7*(0.3*300 - 0.7*150) > 0

It reminds me of Angleo's first video from his poker enlightenment series where he talks about many decisions be unclear, possibly neutral EV, and totally up for debate. It also reminds be of the veneer video where he keeps saying, "poker is hard without reads".




For all, this is basically the gist here. Our assumptions are going to lead us all in different directions. Live ranges are perceived only at best, so whoever "feels" this type of situation out best in real time will play better. Very hard to quantify though. Here we could go on and on about what these villains would or would not do, and at the end of the day it prolly wont change a thing.

I think on avg. both villains wont call. These are personal, subconscious, whatever reasons. Others may think differently. I wouldnt want to have to defend it in court.

And the lessen is that there is no lesson. Poker contains lots of grey. I thought this spot to be very neutral on paper. Thus, lots of players fall one way, the rest fall the other. (And the civil war begins)

Since you were fairly confident with the AINEC statement on c/f, I have to inquire.

c/f AK and it isnt close. Yet if we have a back door Ad draw, it is now +EV?

How can one be waaaay off negative, and a BDFD brings it on up to positive EV?



Oh, BTW, I just finished up about 20 1-2 hand histories where 3 of them had villains 3 betting from blinds and villains calling with ATs 88 KJs KQo 66. So like i was trying to say, its all about what your idea of their range is and how different each of us may think as a default. You have yours, I have mine, Cali has his, and on and on.

ANL, you are taking the easy way out by saying "it depends on the read."

We already have reads. These two Villains are willing to call 25% of their stacks preflop.

What does that mean? CO could be slow-playing KK+ to entice an over-call from the BTN. Probably not, but possible. Most likely, they are both making bad preflop calls as a "gamble" to hit the flop. I wouldn't be surprised to see ******ed hands like QJs and T9s here.

Considering that both Villains were willing to "gamble" 25% of stacks preflop, it is very unlikely that either would fold Tx or better on the flop.

ANL,

I said AdKx would be OK. I never said it was +EV. Please read my replies more carefully before putting words in my mouth.

AdKx is probably a neutral EV or slightly -EV shove with good meta game benefits. That's "OK" in my book.

AKo shove is pretty solidly a somewhat -EV move against 2 "gambly" Villains who likely smacked the flop.

Not to be too nit-picky, but this HH suffers from the fact that ANL assumes zero rake. Which is a ridiculous assumption for a live NL game.

I think that if you take out $3-$4 for rake, the AKo shove becomes even more -EV.

I can't imagine people folding a Jack here.

What jacks do you see this flop with?
AJ? KJ? QJ? JJ?
How many of these are getting destroyed by most people's 3! range OOP when you are also facing a shove on the flop?

That's why live poker is so profitable. Live players hate folding pairs even when they are facing strong ranges.

This isn't a tough online 6max game. This is a live 1/2 NL hand where all sorts of fishy call-downs are the norm.

Thread closed. It was closed earlier by mpethy. I need to respect that. He may come and explain why it was closed earlier.

Our hole cards weren't listed in the OP, and the first bunch of responses I saw were mainly about that, so i locked it.

ANL, and anybody else, in the future, just PM a mod and we can add your hole cards to the OP.