It is good planning if one is 3b squeezing with a fairly weak hand. This is why some suggest 3-betting from the blinds with either premiums or fairly crappy cards, and not with hands like AQs/AJs/KQs or mid PPs, which are good enough to call a raise but not strong enough to play a large pot OOP vs. a raiser.

they're hoping to flop sets -- they miss the set, your 'typical' llsnl player is dumping the small pairs for 150 more bucks. no matter how much they want to call down, huge pf bet and flop shove is too scary to them. lots, lots more fold equity here than people are thinking. shove.

But it doesn't matter against those players. Someone with 66 isn't betting the flop just because you check. You can take them off of it on the turn.

Agree with both of these statements.

The thing is, LLSNL players call too much except when it's a huge bet and/or for all their chips .

Look at this hand another way: Suppose you are my coach and I am one of the villains. "Hero" has rep of a "good player". I ask you what hands can I call here with if he shoves? What do you tell me? (besides JJ/TT/44/JT)

Makeit10 - I don't always agree with ilcd, but that's kinda messed up.

He is basically saying our 3bet is bad because we can't predict what the flop comes.

Supp Princess, good2cu

Interesting eh? Now what do you think is the overall EV figuring on avg. only one villain calls flop? Or would you think that would be a smart assumption?

You are forgetting that it's likely that one of the players calling the 3bet is the PF raiser...and I doubt that the typical low limit NL player is raising PF with a small PP.

I thought he was being sarcastic, as in "yeah you shouldn't 3bet AK just in case the flop is JTx 2 suits"

This. Only 1 of the 2 villains needs a hand here for us to be in trouble

This is the kind of transference that gets us in trouble IMO. I dont get to play 1/2 as much as I would like too, I went and sat this weekend and couldnt believe how bad it was.

Your avg 1/2 player is just horrible. One of the things that makes them this way is they call to much.

I'm in the ch/f camp because we are up against two villains, who can have a big piece of this board. no one is folding TP, or at least, we shouldn't devise a line around villains' capability of folding TP.
if it was HU it would be entirely different

This is where I end up.

We basically can't bet/fold here because we're basically committing ourselves with any bet (even 60 puts us at the point where we're basically all in due to our outs unless we have a read that villain is insanely nitty). Bet/call feels worse than just shoving, IMO.

So to me it's shove or check/fold. I do think reads matter here a fair amount, but 3 ways I think I'm generally in terrible shape on this flop.

ANL doesn't this already assume only 1 caller 80% of the time? Otherwise it would be 0.2*150 + 0.8*(0.25*450 - 0.75*150), right? We'd get $150 from each caller + the $150 that's already in the pot

Haha, I just realized this comment was probably directed at my earlier comment.

Ilcd- the reason I don't like the 3bet is not because I know the flop will be bad obv, it's because on most flops our cbet is going to be a bluff, and the pot is too big.

If we get called, the 2/3 of the time we are going to be shoving with air into 2 villains. The times we do hit a pair are the actually some of the less likely boards to get called on.

any board with j-10 multiway is a terribad spot to bluff into a 3 way pot

We get called 30% of the time. Not 66%.

We all need to quit holdem if that's the case.

All I'm saying if you are c/f on that flop texture. You have no business 3betting pre.

what flop texture is it okay to c/f on?

+1

@ILCD

youre dreaming if you think a standard 1/2 player is folding Jx on this flop enough times for our shove to be +ev. you dont even play poker ever so how can you even assume an accurate range for a villain?

i think you just dont want to c/f because you think its weak and dont want to give up on this pot. c/f isnt weak and it doesnt make you passive or less aggressive or whatever. we c/f because we dont have fold equity against their combined range which has a lot of Jx, QQ, KK, straight draws, and flush draws. they're folding 99 and worse, theyre folding AK/KQ and junk like that - but theyre just not folding any Jx. we're not getting this shove by two villains very often.

as for your points on not 3betting, those are also invalid. we are 3betting AK for value looking to hit Axx or Kxx flops that we can shove and get called by weaker Ax and Kx hands a lot of the time. just because against these specific players we are c/f on a Jxx flops doesnt mean we dont have a plan. is c/f on certain flops not a valid plan??

fwiw i dont think 3b flop and shoving a JTx flop with like backdoor flush is a horrible line. i think against most 1/2 players, c/f is best. but if you are playing against players who have a fold button with some weaker Jx hands on this flop, shoving is best obviously.

edit: but i never assume anyone has a fold button with TP in 1/2 until i see evidence for it

So why squeeze in the first place?

If your not going to bluff any boards. Just call pre and wait to flop gin.

The point of a squeeze is to rep something right?

we profit 300 25% of the time and lose our all-in of 150 75% of the time

yea i wouldnt be really squeezing very often @ 1/2 100bb deep cuz ur just gonna get called in 3 spots
i mean its kinda hard to say wtf i would do otf but with most of my squeeze range (broadways) i prob have enough equity on this flop to get it in

I think we're agreeing. I said what was presented was the results assuming we only receive 1 call. With 2 calls we profit 150 from each (300 total) plus the 150 that's already in the pot from pre-flop.

Presumably our odds of winning the hand change slightly, but you get the idea.

its not really a squeeze squeeze. AKo is a value hand and theyre going to be calling so much worse. AQ-A9/KQ-KJ/QJ/all pairs and worse even

a lot will even call with JTs and stuff like that and we can take advantage of that with a low SPR by shoving Axx/Kxx boards where theyll have draws a lot of time and put the money in behind.

theres a lot we can do with this hand. there actually are situations where we can bluff but JTx nails their range and these arent the types of players we want to bluff against. against these players, we want to be taking advantage of TPTK and getting them to put the money in with TPGK.

so imo ^ that is a plan. so i disagree with you that we have no plan. but no matter what we do, c/f is going to be involved in that plan somehow and we just got a flop where we need to c/f.