$1/$2. Hero cutoff with >$500 has table covered. Table moderately loose-passive and generally horrid, with no pf 3bets for hours. Folds around to hero in CO with Q4 and decides to semi-steal and raises to $7. SB is an extremely tilted young black guy, who just moved seats and asked for a setup and in for fourth $100 buy in. He calls. BB mid-30s Hispanic looking dude just sat down a few hands ago with $200 and calls as well.

Flop comes AK3. Tilted SB open folds, BB checks, hero cbets $15, bb quickly calls. Turn 6. BB checks. At this spot, I debated checking back for the free card, but decided betting should fold out enough Kx, weak aces that flat the flop, in addition to value betting worse FDs, so I bet $30. BB snap calls.

Uh oh. I didn't like that snap call and more or less decide I'm screwed for this hand. River is K and I mentally decided to give up. BB donks out $70. Wtf?? The turn snap call looked way more like Ax than Kx. In fact I highly doubt anyone snap calls Kx ott there. But Ax would never donk otr to another K. Wtf does villain have here? I guess he could be slow playing a set. Probably doesn't have a Kx boat since 2p almost certainly raises otf or ott. This was a really strange line he took that smells like busted FD/SDs, maybe a random pair, perhaps a better Q high haha, or just a bluff.

How much showdown value do I really have here? Is my range assessment of villain accurate? Just by looking at him, he's obv not a pro who would outlevel me here. I don't think I'm ever folding here with Q hi. The question really is raise/fold? If I raise, I'd imagine he'd fold any non K and non boat, but do I have enough showdown equity here?

folding otr is the best option. Def checking back turn without a specific read. I would be surprised if he is ever bluffing here, considering you bet into him twice on that board.

It's 1/2, only a small percentage of Villians are ever going to fold 2nd pair facing 2 bets HU and even less with Ace rag. River is a must fold because of this, but I suppose if you're hell bent on one or the other calling is the better option.. he's called 2 bets and lead the river, there is a 0% chance he's folding.

Sent from my SPH-L720 using 2+2 Forums

I don't know what a semi-steal is, but be fully committed to the play. Fold or actually steal.

AP, would have taken the free card with a turn check.

AP, fold, I don't know what the title means, folding is a great option here.

I suppose stationing two bets can be interpreted as very strong, but I think it provides considerable information on the ranges of hands. Asssuming the villain is taking a standard rational line with call/call otf and ott, what are his ranges? Ax for sure. Sets maybe. Kx perhaps. 2p almost always raises so I'd rule that unlikely, maybe except for AK if he decides to be really tricky. Those hands wreck me. But then there's also FDs (but less likely nfd since that'd prlly warrant a raise too), some SDs, some floaters, some 1p+gutter or something perhaps, so quite a wide range imo. To me, the question becomes which of those ranges donks out $70 on the K river? Kx, sets, 2p that turned into boats, and a large combination of the crap that doesn't wreck me turned into a bluff, so to me there is a non-0% chance he's folding river to raise. I've also never seen a light blocker bet of that sizing in this spot at 1/2 with Ax. I just find it difficult to see Kx or sets snap calling turn. I read the snap call as a non-set or 63 at best or Ax. Those all fold to river raises.

I loosely use the word "steal" as raising unconventionally. Q4 there to me is like 98% fold/2% call or raise. The title means if folding wasn't an option, what would be the better river choice?

First sentence: I have no idea what that means.

Second sentence: Folding is an option. If you want to just make hero calls, make them, lose with Q hi, BBV is that way.

It means I decided to open with a hand in LP that I'd fold 98% of the time. It does not mean I have a mindset to bluff the entire way.

And yes, folding is obviously a practical option that may very well be the best choice, but for the sake of the discussion, pretend it is not. Would calling or raising be better and why?

I think your best option is the raise from Casino Royale. The one where they're playing at Atlantis and the villain raises his car keys and Bond wins the Aston Martin. Just put your keys on the table and shove 'em in against his car keys. I guarantee you that if you bet your Mazda into a $110 pot, BB will fold everything but quads.

fwiw I love late position raises like this. The blinds will often call with ATC and you get to play in position vs them. I find these situations are extremely profitable for me.

Hence the semi-steal.

Am I really the only one who thinks this isn't an autofold lol?

While I don't necessarily agree with your reasoning, if you are fairly certain heis bluffing, it's usually better to just shove in situations where he could be bluffing with a hand that beats yours.


In this case, barring some physical tell, it's a fold on the river

Yeah.

Chi/call, chk/call, donk is not very often a bluff with bad players. And you can't raise since I am perpetually amazed at how low stakes players will never fold Ax ... Like EVER (although it would be weird for him to have Ax)

Having pot sizes listing out makes this hand far easier to understand.

Flop ($21-$2 = $19)
$15 bet (80%) and call.

Turn ($49-$3 = $46)
$30 bet (61%) and call.

River ($109)
$70 bet (64%)

In addition, the villain has now bet over 60% of his stack on this hand. Without a read, this isn't a fold 98% of the time, this is a fold 100% of the time. His river bet isn't a blocking bet and if you shove over, he's getting over 3:1 to call with whatever he thought was worth donking over you that much. You're not going to get him to fold TP. He'll hem and haw, then make a crying call so often that you'll never get paid off enough with a fold to make it worth the effort.

Given you're just pissing money away, calling is better since it costs you less. Fold.

Threads like this are silly. You say only options are to call/raise. LOL

First you have no reads on V as he just sat down and you don't know if he is a fish or if he is good.

V is playing $200 and has already committed $120 of his stack so if you shove it will be $80 to win $240. He is never folding any hand that he bet on the river unless he is bluffing which with no reads is really impossible to know. I would say less than %5 of villains at 1/2 are bluffing this spot. Even if he is bluffing he may be bluffing with a better hand. So raising is clearly not a +ev move all things considered.

Calling here is just lol bad. If you don't know why see above where I talk about villains bluffing and maybe you'll get why.

Preflop is fine. You flop a flush draw so sure fire a cbet. Once he calls best play is to check on turn and take free card. You missed on river so this is an EASY fold.

FPS is not for 1/2 and even if this was a higher limit game it would still be terrible to call/raise considering the circumstances.

Fold pre if you don't know how to play post flop which judging by this hand you have some leaks. Leave the hero calls/fps at home and watch your win rate rise.

obv fistpump snap call situation duuhhh, other player is clearly a glubber.

Difference between calling and raising is obviously raising commits more chips just in case he has Ax which is never folding so you save money just in case you're wrong about calling. However, showing a hero call like this can change table dynamics while shipping and winning the pot without showdown could be better. Doesn't matter at a 1/2 table imo so not sure there's a clear winner between the two actions.

Hmmm...I would probably call but then hate myself when he shows something ******ed like 67

Something like QJo would be funny.

Raising is dangerous in spots like this bc I mean he still can be spazzing with Ax or a really have a king somehow or pocket Eights or w/e. (this is particular to llsnl)

When you raise like you define his value range and that is what is calling. When you flat you keep his total air / value range intact and in your mind there's enough air to justify a call.

Put another way:

When I raise as a bluff it's bc I think villain will fold some of his sdv hands as well as his air. That shouldn't be the case here.

Also fold pre. As played raise more pre.

He isn't folding ax to a raise anyway