History: $1-2 NL

Villain has been at the table for 30 mins and I have seen the following actions from him:

on the button he raised 4 limpers to $27 and took it down
In LP he raised two limpers to $22 and got two callers (I know, good game). flop came 9-10-4 with a heart draw. He led $50 ($300 stack that covered both villains). He called a check raise to $160 (all in) with AJo no suit of flush draw in his hand. The check raiser in that hand had QJs and binked his flush on the turn.
Third hand he open raised to $17 and I flatted in position in what became a five way flop. His c-bet on a Q high flop was $40. I floated him (I figured my flat would get a lot of respect). We went heads up to the river where I went runner-runner two pair and snap called his river bet on a 4 spade board (neither of us had flush) and MHIG (He had QJo).

Villain seemed to be very agitated and reloaded to $350 (house is very lax on max buy-ins).

On to the hand in question (I cover his $350). I am UTG and raise AKs to $15 (my usual open raise is to $12 but I was adjusting up to try and get one caller). Unfortunately I get three callers and villain takes some time, looks at my chips and moves all in for $350.

Two questions

1. is this a snap fold, fold, or maybe call.
2. If you did say fold, how sure of someone being a maniac do you need to be before this is a call, or is this always a fold and wait for a much better spot.

I don't mind a call here. Better info would be seeing what hands he 3bs.

I think I call against someone who is visibly agitated.

I think the correct play is to call. IMO the only reasons to fold are if you are under-rolled for the game, or if high variance play causes you to tilt your money off when his 72o cracks your AKs.

You said on to the hand in question. This is the first hand he was dealt after reloading, or?

It is still first 30 mins at table. Not next hand, but pretty close.

This can go either way I think. Obviously we're never giving this guy credit for AA/KK, so we should always have more than enough equity to call. I'm sure he could turn over a bunch of dominated A's in this spot making it even more +EV.

what you have to decide though is, is it worth it for the sake of the game/your game. Your basically going to flip for $700. If he wins w/ like 22 or sucks out w/ AJs are you going to tilt. How is it going to be to play oop to this guy now w/ a 350-400bb stack? It seems he could make your life miserable, IDK if this is true or not? Are you going to play a different style after dumping a buy in +? It's early, the longer he's stuck the more reckless he may get? If he wins a race on the other hand might he calm down and play better?

On the same token how will he react if he loses? he's already steaming? this could open the flood gates, and multiple trips to the atm may lie ahead.

Playing AK for a 175 bb's pre flop is a gamble, pure and simple. There absolutely will be better spots to be had against this guy. But your going to be doing well enough against him to call it off. To me it comes down to some of the miscellaneous factors that I mentioned and others.

Ultimately this is just a decision that you have to make for yourself in the moment. No shame in folding and nothing wrong with calling it off.

As long as you're not worried about any of the three flatters having KK+ I would snap this guy in a heartbeat. He's probably on tilt and I wouldn't be surprised to see him shoving several dominated hands.

If your read is correct, I can get behind a call here. Tilted aggro-maniacs can have tons of pocket pairs and dominated aces in this spot. So I can see a call here if you can handle the variance, and are prepared to play against this guy deep.

But I wonder about something else you said:

These two things don't go together. This is not a guy you float thinking he will respect you, or will even seriously consider what you have.

I meant a lot of respect from the other players (to get the hand heads up)

Results: I folded. My feeling during the hand was that he probably had a lower pocket pair and that he decided I probably had AK (the raiser always has AK, right) and just ripped it in there. With the callers of my original raise in their I was worried that some of my outs were already out of the deck. And I will admit, losing this hand would cause some tilt issues for me. Overall, the math says this is a call I guess and I should have anticipated that you guys would mostly say call.

After the hand I just started thinking about if he ever does this with an AQ, AJ type hand I am making a huge mistake and I just have to get over any tilt issues this type of loss could have on me and just make the correct call.

Thanks for the thoughts!

Dancing around the table call.

Agree. Take his money before he gives it away to someone else.

It be nicer to be the one jamming but I think it's still a call Vs this bad of a player.

Not calling aipf for 175bb with AK in a 1-2 game. No need to take this risk.

+1 here ...

These 'kind' of opponents think they will eventually hit and/or when they actually show up with a hand it happens to be the one with the biggest pot.

I also like OP's rationale that some outs may be gone with the other players flatting here as well. I don't really think that V would've spotted the increase in opening raise in only 30 minutes but I can see where others at the table, if paying attention, could've seen this as small PP/AK/AQ IMO.

If rolled (or even just a reg), 80% insta calling ... if not, you know those chips are in play sometime soon so why flip (or give away) for so many of them, right?

I usually let these guys have their one little 'I'm still here moment' and then let them go back to normal. GL

I think you made the correct decision for yourself. You know better than any of us how you handle certain situations. if a 175 bb flip is going to ruin your night then no reason to do it. I also agree that some of your outs are likely gone w/ the other callers pre. In my experience guys like this are more willing to jam small to medium pp's then they are AJ/AQ.

I still remember a hand I played years ago, in fact I posted it on here. I was running over a game and there was only one guy at the table that could hurt me. I think we each had 300-400bb's, anyway I was sure I was ahead w/ AKs we get it in pre and he beats me w/ AJ, I was absolutely furious.

I bring it up because at the time all the posters said that this had to be a fold pre, everyone, I was arguing the other side. Goes to show how things change as 3-4 years later the vast majority of posters want to snap call. For me, there's no harm in not wanting to race pre flop w/ a guy your better than, it took a long time to realize this though!

Guys, you can't count unknown cards that other payers might have. That's bad math. Bad logic. Bad everything.


For the guy saying he'snot caling AKss for 175BB in a 1/2 game...

WHy are you playing then? This is a big edge spot. It's not thin. It's high variance, but it's very +EV. There is every need to take this risk because it's the kind of risk you're looking for. So, open up your purse, pull out your balls, strap them on and get your money in there. We can't always be 90% favorites when the money goes in. You'll never win BIG if you continually pass up very good spots because you're averse to the risk.

If you want to argue the EV ness of the spot based on range and actions fine, but if you agree that it's beneficial to call, then just because you might lose this one is NOT a good reason to pass. You're NOT guaranteed another good spot.

if you aren't calling, your bankroll isn't big enough to win over time

this is actually a remarkably simple spot math-wise, it's almost exactly even money unless he has AQ and AJ, then it's an edge for you. I believe he does have those hands because he's on tilt, otherwise you probably have to hand him the pot because it's close to even money and high variance

however, since he does have those hands in his range, it's actually a very profitable spot, netting you about an hour to an hour and a half worth of work in one hand. High variance tho but that's why you should play deep, to eke out these thin edges

He got it in with A high earlier by CALLING a shove. It's not thin. Not even a little bit.

I have seen this before, but I am not sure I agree. We talk about combonotorics and ranges a lot and if I know for a fact that in a similar situation a guy pushing all in only does it with pocket pairs, It would be wrong to think similarly about how likely it is for original callers to have an ace? I understand that their cards are unknown and you head down a dangerous path, but its not something you try to consider?

Unless his entire range is Ax, you cannot remove an ace from your calcs. It just blows everything out of the water when you start removing outs based on unknown cards.

if he's only shoving pocket pairs it's a fold, the only read you need here is whether worse aces are in his range, and if they are, it's a call

my experience is that people on tilt do have AJ/AQ, but I'm working on a tiny sample size