$2-3 $600 cap -leads to playing deep
H ($450) - a Vietnam veteran who could appear like an OMC in good shape.
v - ($350) 30ish WG who just sat down but is greeted by the dealer as a local. On the previous hand he ran a 4.5x check raise river bluff on a 3 flush board with the Naked Ace, so either he is experienced and creative or is waiting for a PLO game.

OTTH: seven handed, the proverbial five limpers and I complete in the SB with 7c 6h.

Flop: ($21) Tc 9s 8c so I flop the idiot end of a straight, and lead for $25 into six players. V in UTG+1 shoves for $347. Obviously I am behind QJ but also behind a higher combo draw with the two flush board. It is very unlikely that QJ would play this way.

Can anyone find a fold to this massive OB from a guy who on the previous hand was caught bluffing?
Was it advisable to lead into this highly coordinated board?

IMO: we got seconds nuts, we should be looking to build pots and dreaming of of 3 streets of value.

I think leading with second nuts is good. MUBSY(monsters under the bed syndrome) shouldn't stop an OOP value bet here.

The 7x OB is usually a sizing tell live that the player has the nuts.

Maybe you can call once in a while, but I'm inclined to lay that hand down 90% of the time and change my strategy to trapping V if this this is how he semi-bluffs. If if only does this nutted and we observe this, then we can confidently exploit the V.

Can't fold to a bluffer.

Shoving 350 into 50 screams of the nuts or at best a hand like T9 (and I wouldn’t give him top two, all too often, actually). I can’t give him many combos of sets here, since TT and even sometimes 99 should be opened preflop. He might have 88. Opponent can’t really have a bluff with Jc except for Jc9c (AcJc and KcJc should raise preflop). There are twice as many combos of QJ as T9, so this seems like a fold.

On boards where the nut straight is incredibly visible and the pot is multi-way, ginormous raises are usually going to represent that nut straight. I mean to say: you know that everyone loves to play QJ preflop, and Villain knows that too. So when he raises your lead (that could very well represent QJ), into 5 other players (any of which might have QJ), he nearly always has the nuts.
Past experiences aren’t relevant here, I.e. bluffing with a blocker in a heads-up pot on the river isn’t the same as shoving for 4x pot into 6 players on the flop.

Edit: Anyway, if we give him 16 combos of QJ that we have 0% equity against and 8 combos of sets/2-pair that we have 80% equity against and 8 combos of combo draw semibluffs that we have 60% equity against, then our equity against range is 35%. We need closer to 45% equity to justify a call when Villain makes a 4x pot raise. Don’t think we can call.

Edit 2: Info that Villain ran a blocker bluff with Ax on a 3-flush board makes me think that he’s competent. This makes me think it’s less likely that he’s overplaying a hand like two-pair here.

Edit 3: I’m torn whether to give the opponent all combos of QJ, since I’m not sure how likely he is to take this line with QJ. This OB sizing looks sorta like a monster combo draw like JcXc. Against that specific hand we’re barely getting the needed 45% equity. Problem is there’s so few combos of JcXc in preflop range and so many combos of QJ, that I believe QJ is still going to be dominant (even if we consider it a strange line with QJ.) We have to believe Villain is weighted toward monster combo draws and 88 to consider a call here. Still think fold is best, personally.

tough spot

it's obviously incredibly stupid to jam here with the nuts, but if it's a 30 year old wg who comes often enough where the dealer greets him, you need to give him some credit here that he's very situationally aware and thus most know what his image here is

it's one of those sicilian poison things of "is he taking advantage of his image/scared of flush/if bluffing/protecting his 2p or set" and you really can't tell so just dump your hand, say gg and he got ya no big deal

I'd also sooner call with a set or two pair here because then at least you have outs in the event he does indeed have the nuts

Ordinarily if someone over bets the pot on the flop, they have hand that is vulnerable to further cards. In this case, someone has already done this in this hand before he did. Therefore, he's expecting a call. The problem is that he's a bluffer and if he is thinking about your hand, he has you on TP, not a straight. He may believe he is ahead with 2 pair or a set.

If losing a stack because he drew out or had the nuts is going to put you on tilt, then fold. Otherwise, I'm not folding the second nuts because someone shoved on the flop. Whatever you do, make sure your cards go face down in the muck. Never going to show a table I can fold the second nuts to pressure.

I'd check flop and fold as played.

Villain being caught bluffing previously actually increases the chance of him taking this line with a nutted hand for me.

Also - villain has to be pretty spazzy to shove worse than a set (or premium combo draw) into 6 players here - we don't have enough evidence to prove he is that bad.

Probably a puke call, but this feels like some kind of pair+draw to me. V may be a good/creative player, but does he have a good enough read on you to shove the nuts here for value?

Sums it up for me.

This spot is way, way different from a large river bluff with a nut flush blocker. He's overbet shoving into six people (edit: four people, two have folded), after a large lead from someone he might see as OMC, on a board where all the nutted hands are in everyone's range. Unless we have reason to think V is a complete spewtard, this is a fold. There are a few good combo draws he can have, but it's not like we're even printing money against those hands.

Was about to say fold pre, then noticed it's 2/3. Gross.

Obviously I went into the tank a bit:
-the guy has to be seriously tricky to check raise bluff the river in the prior hand. A more normal bluff would be to lead with the naked ace-
-yes, being caught bluffing usually calls for playing ABC for the next hour or so, at least for me-
-I still didn’t think he would play QJ this way (although Phil Helmuth tried a very similar all in OvB against Doug Polk on High Stakes Poker a few weeks ago- Polk folded the second nuts)
-my OMC image would lead to his getting tricky and he hasn’t played with me before (I am new to this room and just started playing again after the second shot)
- metagame seems ridiculous at 2-3, but it would be of value to let the regulars know I will play (this game is so close to my house in Vegas whereas Aria, Bellagio and Wynn are a hassle to get to and park-and the $2-3 $600 structure is great, much better than a $2-5 $500 at the Bellagio-)
-I called and he showed JcXc for a large combo draw.

1. Fold pre. 76o is a terrible hand in the worst position possible. The odds are attractive but it won't be realizing its equity. As you are finding out, the only good boards are A67, 677 and 345.

2. The bet on the flop is fine, not sure about the sizing.

3. Fold against the shove. A flop with 7 people is different than a bluff heads up or 3 way. The collective ranges are far stronger and in theory at least people should bluff less. Even if you bluff, it needs to be a monster like a combo straight flush draw.

If we give your opponent a range of QJ, KcJc, AcJ, Jc9c, Jc8c and 88, you are crashed 82-18. The thing is there are 16 QJ combos and significantly fewer combo draws. Even if we add 99 and T9s in the range, his equity is still massive at 73%.

I also complete preflop. Although lately I've been wondering if having a very similar completing range OOP to the wide range I'm playing on the Button is a mistake. Obviously we're getting an awesome immediate price and ~pretty much closing the action, and right now for me that is overruling the fact that I'll be OOP the rest of the hand. But I could be convinced otherwise.

I probably bet smaller. A larger bet just gets us that quicker on our way to possibly playing for stacks, which I rarely want to do in a very multiway limped pot against anyone with half a clue when there are completely obvious better hands out there. Also wouldn't hate a check/evaluate.

If this was against an OMCish player who is just protecting his nuts on a super drawy board, then I would definitely fold. Here it's probably a lot closer, as this guy is likely far more often doing it with some sort of mega draw. Still, there is a huge part of me also leaning to "don't go broke in a limped pot".

ETA: FWIW, we only have the third nuts. Not nitpicking, but it does make a slight difference if we have him jamming all his nuttish hands as well as his huge draws, as now there are two better hands he could be doing this with instead of one (which almost ~doubles the combinations we're drawing dead to). Although admittedly I guess him being in EP certainly reduces the chances of him having these (and may only be 3 extra combinations at best).

Ggrossspot,imoG

mad respect you gave your decision and his holdings in the update but not how the board ran out

Grunch - Doug's fold vs Phil helmuth and his analysis of it show why it's totally fine and correct to fold here. We will have all QJo (16 combos) here so there is no need to defend with anything but that vs this sizing. We shouldn't have TT but 99 or 88 are better to call with since we're never dead

2/3 I’m fine with tossing in a single chip here. It’s so cheap to see a flop. But we will have to be careful. Coming from mix games, I’ve seen very good players who simply refuse to play RIO hell hands in a game like FLO8 even getting like 11:1 from the sb. I’d figure there’s arguments for likewise in NL.

With this combo I slightly prefer a check raise. There’s really not a lot of good run outs and any spade/Q/J/7/board pair will come with headaches. But this board is so likely to get stabbed at, that I think we can put in a large sizing check raise at a pretty high frequency. And We don’t have such a hammer lock on this hand that we’re devastated if it checks through. Given you did lead, the larger size is better.

I can see him doing this with combo draws, A HJ FD and QJ. If we think he’s limping QJo, he’s going to have a lot of hands that have you dead and we can fold. If he isn’t limping QJo, but is limping T9s and might do this, it starts to tilt towards call.


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Yup. Like I’m sure Doug doesn’t even think it was that impressive of a fold, but people ask about it so he talks about it. It’s easy to get hung up on “having the second nuts”, but it’s so easy for them to have the stone nuts and have you drawing dead. So even if they have some bluff combos that are going to own your face, it’s not going to be profitable to call it off. Unless of course your opponent is wildly out of line.


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Fair enough, it is the 3rd nuts. However, if he's calling pf with J7, he's calling with J8, J9, JT, KJ too.

Even though it's my username, I'd fold pre flop. I'd x-r flop. As played I can't fold this.

fold pre
anything after that is spew

if you can't learn to fold a limped small blind you will never be a long term winner

I do unfortunately agree with the fold pre. Yes you're getting a great price, but SCs play bad enough OOP here, let alone unsuited connectors.

As played I think it's a fold because you're dead in the water on a lot of his range, and not in great shape against the rest. I think this is an entirely different situation to the previous one with villain, and I thinking making an inference on that for this hand is dangerous.

Of course whether I find the fold in the heat of battle is a completely different question...

FWIW, we're getting 20:1 preflop (assuming the lone guy behind us in the BB doesn't reraise). As I say, even in a 1/3 structure I'd be tempted to complete here getting much worse 9.5:1.

But, I've also never been one to be too concerned with immediate odds, as I don't think they mean all that much on early streets in NL, especially compared to the bigger importance of IO versus RIO, position, skillz, etc. And as I say, I'm a little worried that my SB continuing range is looking a little bit too much like my Button continuing range. So I can be convinced otherwise.

But another part of me is also fine taking this price to ~nutmine, and pretty much exiting postflop without them.

GcluelesspreflopnoobG

Many great replies that went in directions I would have never thought of, including folding the SB at 20:1 odds with a connector. I remember one poster this week who states he plays extra tight in the SB, which is not easily recognized as he is somewhat loose otherwise.

While many posters advocated folding which I certainly contemplated, a key factor in this was the long term effect, and I respectfully won't use the term metagame at $2-3. Good chance I will be a regular in this game so an initial investment of 120 BB was part of the thinking in terms of how I will be perceived among the LAGs.

FWIW: my hand held up.

Lol at anyone folding for a dollar here, getting 21:1

Yeah, I mean you only need to win 5% of the time, right? With 7 players in the pot, all things being equal, you will win 14% of the time.

Trouble is all things aren't equal. You are out of position and the limpers' range wide as it may be is stronger than yours.

So for example. You complete 67o. Flop comes 962r. You check. No one has a T. The button holds 89s, it's checked to him, he bets his draw, you fold what is the best hand and a very good chunk of equity. There's a ton of flops like this.