We're in the HJ with Kd9d, a few people limp in EP, I raise quite big to 8x the bb. We get 4 callers.

200 bb effective.

The flop comes Ad, 9c, Qd (pot 40 bb)

We put in a continuation bet of 60% pot, 24 bb. Everybody folds except BTN.

Turn Jc (pot 88 bb)

We bet again, 48 bb.

Now BTN goes all-in for another 120 bb.

This spot obviously sucks. Given the fact it's MW and we have very little FE against a weaker player OTT I hate my line. But as played, do we have to call? If we assume villain's range only consists of value hands that have us beat, we have roughly 31% vs that range.

Am I calculating the EV correctly in this way: we need to call off our remaining 120 bb in order to win a pot that is now the size of 304 bb (the initial size of the pot OTT, 88 bb + our bet 48 bb + villain's shove for 48 bb + 120 bb)?

Using the EV formula, EV = (W%*$W) – (L%*$L), my results tell me that the call would be very slightly +EV. Does this mean that we absolutely have to call here in order to play this situation profitably?

It's 88bb + 120 +120 = 328bb. So we have 72 bb left to call, so it's 72÷328=22%. So ya as played we def have to call.
The flop bet is ok, could go either way with this one. Turn bet is not so good because being shoved on sucks, but if you're gonna bet, might as well go all in for max fold equity, plus we have to call off the rest anyways

Check the flop. Doing so adds a strong hand to our checking range and people won't give you credit for a flush when you hit it.

As played you just have to do the math like niceguy did.

Maybe I worded it poorly. It's definitely not 72 bb left to call, then I obviously would've snapped. When I say he went all-in for "another 120 bb" I mean my 48 bb bet + 120 bb on top of that, meaning we have to call off 120 bb.

Then it is:
Total pot if you call:
88bb + 168 + 168 = 424.

What you have to call / What you win
120 / 424 = 28%.

If you have more than 28% equity : call.

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Cool, thanks. I almost got it right.. only I got part of the equation wrong in my head. For some reason I thought it'd be 88 + my bet + his jam, which would've made the call slightly -EV (120/304 = 39%).

Think about a coin flip in which both players put 1$.
Your odds needs to be 1/2 (bet divided by TOTAL gain) or more to be EV+ (logically)
NOT 1/1 (bet divided by NET gain). That would be absurd haha

After 3 EP limpers, I'm not even sure I would consider $24 "quite big" at my typical loose table, especially if sitting deep. I just fold preflop. I hate our result, which I would also expect most of the time.

If we don't think a cbet is going to win the pot (which it probably won't 5ways), then the only other real point of betting is setup a free card play on the turn. So if I was betting, I'd only bet like 1/3 PSB which will give us great odds and hopefully get us a free card. $40 will still be seen as a "big" flop bet. 5ways I'm typically checking behind though.

Given that Button was the first one to call our flop raise, this flop/turn smashes him in the face if he is willing to call the flop bet. I definitely don't bet the turn.

As played, it's simply a math question. If all our outs are good, we have 12 outs, so need about 3:1. If I've done the math right, we're being asked to call 120bb to win 256bb, so getting just a little over 2:1. So not getting the correct odds even in the best case scenario (and this is ignoring the scenario where some of our outs chop / are dirty). So looks like an easy fold.

ETA: Whether you come at it from an equity percentages point of view or an odds point of view is either/or and up whatever you feel most comfortable with. I come from a Limit background, so I like working in pot odds. A 12 outer is more-or-less 3:1. Which means to make a call for 120bb we'd have to win about 360bb to breakeven, but here there is only 256bb to be won. So not remotely close (especially when you consider we often don't have 12 outs).

Gspewtastic,imoG

This hand is a disaster.

Call pre, check flop as played, and definitely check turn as played. Betting turn is literally burning money compared to checking.

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The open pre is fine but not necessary nor optimal, but your sizing isn't. At most 1/3 I've played, that's unnecessarily big with a speculative hand.

Limping and folding pre are probably about equal and better then opening, but meh, small issue, imo.

As played, betting the flop is bad. You have a flop that is going to hit lots of callers ranges who will not fold now, and you have a nice nfd and a back door SD. Just call and maybe consider a delayed cbet on a blank turn.

As played, betting the turn is terrible.

As played, give V Broadway, and give yourself discounted outs (maybe 8 flush outs and only two T's) and compute your equity and the pot odds, then act accordingly.

Given that we ended up 5ways after 3 limpers (standard, imo), his sizing clearly wasn't big enough.

Gno?G

If he had QQ+... Correct.

But with Kcrapsuited... No.

What I'm saying is that if the raise is to narrow the field (which I'm assuming is what we're intending to do in all cases, from QQ+ thru Kxs), then he clearly has to size it bigger. (although I'm assuming you're attempting to narrow the field with Kxs, maybe you're not?)

Whether he should be raising at all is a different question.

GcluelessraisesizingnoobG

Depending on the table conditions, either raising or limping is fine. If the CO and BTN are unlikely to raise even with good hands, then I like limping. You want to see flops with relatively decent position. If someone is likely to squeeze, then a raise is better.

As played, there's little chance with 4 callers and an ace on the board our cbet is going through. Check the flop. While A small-x might check behind, it is never folding. Once the turn doesn't have a scare card, the next bet is never going to get a fold.

As played on the turn, you're not getting enough odds to call unless you think the villain has a lot of bluffs in his range.