Now let's analyze!

2/5 game at Foxwoods.

Hero: 99
Villain: ??

Hero has an effective stack of 1300, and villain has 1000.

Hero is UTG and villain is the BB. Villain joined table only about 30 minutes earlier. No real solid reads on villain yet, but seems to play on the tighter end of things.

Hero raises to 20 dollars. Folds around to villain, who 3-bets to 120. Hero calls.

Flop: 10s 10d 2d

Villain bets 200. After a minute of thought hero shoves. Villain folds after a couple of minutes.

My thought process:

Villains range was pretty much capped at JJ. If he had better, why was he trying so desperately to deny me equity? There was no inidication I had a flush draw so why bet so much on the flop and preflop? I thought his full range here was something like, AK, AQ, JJ, 99, 88. 10 10 NEVER plays this hand this way, A10 is an unlikely 3-bet from someone who seems to be tightish. I suppose QQ was possible, but why not try to get value out of me, instead of denying me equity I probably don’t have in this spot. He claimed to have had QQ or JJ, saying he was worried I had a ten. But what ten could I possibly have in this pot? I think it’s more likely it was AQ or AK and he was also trying to save a little face. I got away with the bluff, but I’d like to hear people’s opinions on whether or not you thought I made the right play.

I guess I should also put my image at the table. I'm known as an overall TAG with an ability to mix it up. More of an instinctual player versus theoretical. I don't seem to get too out line, and even though I got a bluff caught earlier in the game, villain wasn't around to see that.

So... you were trying to bluff exactly JJ? If he is capped at JJ, then you beat the rest of his range.

Well AK and AQ suited are slight favorites on the flop, and I'm tying with 99, so 88 is really the only slam dunk call I want if he has it. And yes I'm bluffing against JJ. I'm not really sure what your point is could you explain? I don't exactly want to be playing a hand with no robust equity in the dark

your equity when called is near zero because of the lack of robust equity, and you put him on a range so narrow that you are trying to bluff him off one total hand and youre so unsure that he folds that one total hand that you also opine that you could hope for a call from a considerably worse hand in 88, and invesing 780 to win 440, so you need it to work 64% of the time.

I mean, maybe he will fold almost always here, and so you should ship with a 100% range, but literally the only hand id think its worse to ship with here is JJ.

I would call, and expect him to shut down ott with AQ AK. I absolutely think he could have QQ+ here and would snap your ship.

^Yup

OP you got lucky he had AK/AQs here ...

What confused me however was his 200 dollar bet on the flop. Why bet so much? I'd think AA or KK would bet around the 130-170 mark to extract value from hands like 99. Not try to blow me out of the pot. I guess I got lucky, but I felt like he was weak and he looked scared on the flop, which played into part of the reason I pushed.

Yeah I mean/sure this can be +ev vs some strategies but probably not for the reasons you listed in op

He could do this with both overpairs and AK. He could think you call with 99 w/ AA. He could think you fold with 99 w/ AK. etc.

Fine to go with your reads, but reasoning isn't sound.

Fair enough. If someone doesn't mind, I'd love to hear what part of the reasoning was flawed. Leaving out AA and KK? and why? Why would AA and KK try to blow me out of the water like that?

ship 250bbs in a 3bet pot with 99 on the flop? Take a step back.

As always this depends on the player. You say he plays on the tighter end of things as your only read so I like the thought to bluff, especially given that they have few tens in their range and you would need to be suicidal to jam anything else this big with zero flush draws out there. And every player can see that.

Other obvious options to consider:

Min-raising then jamming turn. Could work if you think player is disciplined/also thinking and knows min-raising is so nutted and wins you more.

Floating then jamming over turn bet.

There are lots of players that overbet QQ+. They really dont want action with them, they want whatever is in the middle at the time.

it wasnt even an overbet (unlike your ship), however its a stupid bet size with ANY hand. he probably just sucks.

This I agree with, but just as a correction, since a few people seem to be confused.

I didn't overbet the bot, when I raised 600 more dollars, (not BBs) there was 640 in the pot. 440, plus my call of his 200 dollar bet. Sorry if that was confusing.

But yes you guys are right, in general there are people like that that push hard on holdings like that cause they're nervous. So I guess my instinct was right about that, probably playing some scared money and that's why it worked. For all I know, maybe he actually did fold QQ. I can't imagine him folding better than that, and if he did he really shouldn't be playing at that level.

EDIT: I see why it's confusing. He had 920 in his stack, not 1000.

Lol . This

Spew.

yup. spew.

Well, at least it was a lucrative lesson haha.