2/5 at my local nitfest card room. I sit down with 500 (max buy $1000) and only one person has me covered. There’s lots and lots of straddling and limping, very little raising and no 3 betting at all. After I get comfortable I start getting aggressive and win a few small pots. Then I pick up TT OTB with a $10 button straddle. Two limps and I make it $50. 1 caller, Flop A44. I cbet $30, he calls, we check it down, his ace rag wins. I probably have the most aggressive image at the table.

Otth

Villain is a 65ish year old white lady. Super tight, doesn’t get out of line, probably bets it only when she has it, etc. She doesn’t seem active enough to bluff very often. V2 is a loose passive player (who later tried to 3 barrel me off a pocket pair on a super dry 9 high board when I knew he just had high cards) so reads aren’t everything lol

Hero has 700, covers both. Raises in EP with JJ to $25. Three callers.

Flop 8 5 4 rainbow (pot $100). I cbet 75, both Vs call.

Turn 3. V2 checks, I check, V fires 125 quickly. V2 folds.

Hero? Does she have 9s or 10s and think they’re good? I think she probably had QQ, maybe the other two jacks, or maybe KK.

very easy call/eval river

Almost every turn card makes you hate life. Why bloat the pot on the flop?

Check flop/bet small (0.25-0.33 PSB)

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Betting flop seems wise, to clean up your equity against overcards, and we’ll get called by any 8x so we can get value. Agreed that you should bet smaller on the flop, though, like 33% pot.
Call turn and fold to further aggression on river, she could have A8/99/TT like you said.

I'd probably call turn, evaluate river, fold to further pressure.

Flop - I'd bet smaller, $40, oop.

It's an ugly spot, no question. I could see myself taking the same line as you against this opponent. By default I would assume that yes, she plays TT/99 like this. Here's the math on the range you're suspecting:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

8,976 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 8543

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
jj	37.97%	3,276	264
kk,qq,jj,tt,99,88,55,44	62.03%	5,436	264

Problem is, this is a turn bet, not a river bet we're facing. So even if our odds look ok to call now, we have to worry about paying off the river as well. That's why folding now might be correct. It comes down to how you expect her to play the river. The more I think about it though, I wouldn't expect to be facing large river bets from TT/99 very often. Which makes me want to call turn, evaluate river with the plan of paying off smaller bets and folding to larger ones.

i don't like playing big pots vs old ladies when they take the lead on the turn

we know your stack, but we don't know effective stacks, that matters deeply here

as played a cry fold imo

+1

Your check induced a small bet. Shouldn't be a surprise and she can definitely have 99 or TT here..

Yea, I'm going with the minority here and folding. The chances she hit a set seem way too high.

Hopefully, she showed.

You’re right, I forgot stack sizes.

Hero: $700
V1: $450
V2: $600

I don’t have evidence to back it up, but I have a pretty strong suspicion that most older 2/5 players think anything over $100 is a big bet. Especially in Florida where deep stack no limit has really only existed for the past several years.

Regarding villains: sometimes loose passives actually bluff too much. It sounds like an oxymoron, but really, they play a wide range but then are too scared to value bet without a top of range Hand. But they’ll try to win the pot if you show weakness. So they actually end up bluffing way too much.

We might be able to exploit fold vs player type. I think it’s ok. Curious as to why you’re opening so big against a table of smaller stacks and weak tight players, though. Seems ideal to enter pots wider with smaller opens.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Whereabouts in Florida? I’ve played games there where I’d never consider check folding an overpair to these gambool players


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think it just comes down to a fundamental misunderstanding of what a value bet is. They think value bet = bet when you have something not when your opponent has something. As a result they often turn their own hands into bluffs without realizing it. 4 straight or 4 flush on the turn but they have a set? They will bet 100% of the time if checked to because a set is a strong hand.

So in Hero's spot here I dont think a fold on the turn is warranted. Even the nittiest of players is caught off guard when checked to if they have a hand and you were the aggressor. It confuses them. There's no such thing as pot control. If you have an overpair you gotta "pRoTeCt yOuR HaNd". They couldnt sleep for a week if JJ lost to a random 3 outer on the river.

I hear that. Issue is that there’s not a ton of value bets we are beating here. So I think it’s valid to at least give thought to folding the weakest of overpairs. Definitely don’t start folding aces here, though.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Is there any merit to just bet/ folding the turn and then checking river?

I agree. OP's own description of this lady: "Super tight, doesn’t get out of line, probably bets it only when she has it, etc. She doesn’t seem active enough to bluff very often."

The only question is whether she does this with 99/TT. It is FAR more likely she does this with 44/55/QQ/KK. There are just way too many combos she could have that she plays like this that beat you than you beat. OP also said she isn't likely to be bluffing, so odds are she is calling or betting on the river, so if we are wrong here, it is going to cost us even more money.

I think I grumble/fold.

On the flop, what sets do we have? Only 88, I should think. Opening from EP, we aren't going to have 76s in our range, nor 54s. People who flat opens are going to have a lot of pocket pairs, suited aces, and suited connectors. So we are at a decided nut disadvantage against the field. If we bet at all, we should be betting small. Yes, we are motivated to protect our equity, and yes, we would like to extract value from hands like TT, 99, A9s, 98s, 87s, 65s, A5, and A4s. But we do not want to bet very big here, because of our nut disadvantage.

Moreover, we are out of position with respect to at least one player. This puts weight on the checking side of the scales.

In the end, I think I bet here, something like 1/4 to 1/3 x pot.

As played, on the turn the villain isn't betting "small," especially given the effective stack size. Maybe 65yo white ladies don't think in these terms, but betting $125 into a $325 pot leaving $250 behind sets up a nice river shove, and for all the talk of "evaluating river," we would be hard-put to fold to a shove if a safe card fell -- at this point, even a K or Q should be thought of as safe, as it wouldn't interact with the villain's value range.

So, yeah, I would seriously consider folding on the turn.

Good post AB.

I think these are the kind of threads that can really help people’s games, because this is a clear discussion of a game theoretic vs exploitative style of play. Decent but not amazing made hand facing bets OOP is a situation that’s going to happen. A lot.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I should also add that this is the first time in the ~45 minutes I've been at the table that she's made a bet more than $50 and called more than $25. I don't know whether it had just been a while since she'd had a hand, but it just felt so out of sync with the rest of the flow of the game that alarm bells went off.

Great answers so far, thanks everyone!

This is at Bonita Springs Poker Room, which used to be the Fort Myers-Naples Racetrack.

I would just check/shove the turn for value and protection. U have an aggressive image. Use it to get paid.

lol the exact room I’ve experience at.

Yeah given how those games are, I’m not folding TT to anybody on the turn.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I had JJ.

Do you play every hand the same way against the entire player pool?

Not at all. I’ve just played these games and it’s common for people to peel flop bets with nothing, overcall turn with bottom pair, and other money burning activities. So I’d really have to see she’s nitty and not nitty compared to the reckless gamboolers in that room.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk