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I fold top pair+flush draw on the turn I fold top pair+flush draw on the turn

12-06-2020 , 07:09 PM
Live 2/5. 7-handed. Effective stacks are about 200BB.

Villain 1 is a straight-forward Asian who sometimes can't fold one-pair hands, but will take pot-control lines against someone like me who is perceived as solid and tricky. Villain 2 is an erratic black guy who I can tell plays bad, but I haven't figured out what his ranges look like.

Villain 1 opens to 20 in the CO. He will open-limp with weaker hands, so a raise denotes some strength. I just call OTB with QT. Villain 2 in SB calls. BB also calls. This is an unsurprising outcome to me.

Flop is T83 (pot=80), giving hero TP with a backdoor straight flush draw. Checked to V1, who bets 40. Hero calls. SB calls. BB folds.

Turn is 3 (pot=200), pairing the board and giving hero a flush draw. V2 leads out for 165. I think he bets out with hands that are improved by the turn, so his likely range is 3x hands and diamond draws. He's loose enough to have called the flop with a hand like A9. V1 thinks about it and makes the call. I think his range here is something like 88/TT/AA-JJ and two big clubs. I don't think he c-bets without at least a pair or flush draw on the flop with three callers and he wouldn't open-raise preflop with hands that flop a straight draw.

Hero insta-folds. I think V1 is too sticky with his overpair and V2 has too many trips in his range to turn my hand into a bluff. I don't think I make enough on the river if I improve to give me the implied odds to justify a call. I don't think the table dynamics give me the opportunity to turn my hand into a bluff on the river because V2 is likely to bet around half pot on rivers that don't improve me.
I fold top pair+flush draw on the turn Quote
12-06-2020 , 07:25 PM
I wouldn't be folding. I wouldn't just assume V2 has trips, but even if he does we presumably have 12 outs. We often have 15 outs. We're also ahead on occasion.
I fold top pair+flush draw on the turn Quote
12-06-2020 , 09:07 PM
You didn’t even think about jamming?
I fold top pair+flush draw on the turn Quote
12-06-2020 , 11:37 PM
I thought about jamming, but I didn't think it would work. V2 isn't folding trips, if he has that. V1 is a reg who expects me to slowplay hands that beat his likely overpair, which he is sticky with.
I fold top pair+flush draw on the turn Quote
12-07-2020 , 09:38 AM
Don't post results in the OP please, could bias the answers

As for the hand itself, interesting spot. As weird as it feels I would fold, as you are likely behind now and all cards that improve you (besides another T) would carry huge reverse implied odds with them.
I fold top pair+flush draw on the turn Quote
12-07-2020 , 10:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixsevenoff
I wouldn't be folding. I wouldn't just assume V2 has trips, but even if he does we presumably have 12 outs. We often have 15 outs. We're also ahead on occasion.
What non-flush outs do we have here? Wouldn't our hitting trips mean that he's boating up?
I fold top pair+flush draw on the turn Quote
12-07-2020 , 11:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brodsky418
What non-flush outs do we have here? Wouldn't our hitting trips mean that he's boating up?
Tens full beats threes full.

Also...you have the backdoor flush draw after calling a flop bet. You really don’t think you can make enough on a diamond river to justify a call?
I fold top pair+flush draw on the turn Quote
12-07-2020 , 02:37 PM
No one has brought this up, but one reason I folded is that I was pessimistic about my ability to bluff a club river.
I fold top pair+flush draw on the turn Quote
12-07-2020 , 02:53 PM
I didn’t bring it up because it shouldn’t matter. You’re getting over 3:1 in direct odds. And if you can’t bluff a club, then it should mean you CAN get value on a diamond.
I fold top pair+flush draw on the turn Quote
12-07-2020 , 05:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brodsky418
What non-flush outs do we have here? Wouldn't our hitting trips mean that he's boating up?
Fair enough. Somehow I had missed that the board was already paired.

Even so, I wasn't saying that we didn't have enough equity. I was just curious how you'd reached that number .
I fold top pair+flush draw on the turn Quote

      
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