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Old 08-23-2015, 01:36 PM   #1
kookiemonster
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I Flopz z setz

Rarely is it correct to slowplay flopped sets at the lowest levels. Maybe this is the spot?

$1/2 at 6:30am. Second or third orbit for hero who arrived rested and chipper after a nice breakfast and half a pot of coffee. Rest of table are looking tired, I guess have been playing all night.

Couple of regs at table.

UTG is a middle aged Filipino guy. Never seen him before. Seems limpy. We can assume fishy. $400ish

Button is a rec. reg. Loose pre. Not afraid to throw chips around, but certainly is going to be able to get away from less than TPTK. Knows hero as a solid TAG. $250ish


Hero covers.

2 limpers including UTG, hero opens QQ in CO to a dealer friendly $14, Button calls, UTG calls, limper folds.

($44) Flop: Q85

UTG checks, hero bets $20 (???), Button makes it $50, UTG calls, Hero?

Normally this is petal to the metal, let´s build a big pot, go go gadget GII time...but Button knows how to fold, UTG doesn´t necessarily have much. How about smooth calling here and check/raising the turn, or even smooth calling and donking the turn? The board is so dry. The only hand with decent equity against us is 76. 3 betting here and telling everyone we have AQ at a minimum just seems wrong. I want all the money, not just what´s in the pot. Thoughts?
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Old 08-23-2015, 02:05 PM   #2
suited fours
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Re: I Flopz z setz

Turn check through would be such a disaster. I'd focus on that Filipino cash and make it $100 total. He'll figure he's still priced in.
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Old 08-23-2015, 02:06 PM   #3
BirdsallSa
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Re: I Flopz z setz

From what I know about the game you play in I think you could flip your cards over, shove and still get all the money in.
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Old 08-23-2015, 02:33 PM   #4
eldiesel
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Re: I Flopz z setz

I'm fine calling otf, b/3b has become really strong. With middle set I'd c/r ott and expect TP to keep betting, with top set I don't know what V could have, if he has worse sets there's no turn card that'll prevent ai's. I'd lead the turn small to induce, if he has anything of value he'll raise, if he has some weird bluffs, folding and flatting will both seem out of the question to him, really a $30 bet is going to halt his bluff attempt? 76 that doesn't improve is like the only thing he might just call with.
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Old 08-23-2015, 02:48 PM   #5
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Re: I Flopz z setz

The board is so dry and you block so many possible hands that I agree flatting is best. 3 betting this nearly drawless board with multiple opponents is pretty much going to limit your opponents to smaller sets. Plus, with a raise and call on the flop the pot will be so big on the turn you won't have trouble getting it in. Call now and lead turn for $100.
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Old 08-23-2015, 03:09 PM   #6
westray
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Re: I Flopz z setz

Call and bet out on a turn that doesn't complete a straight. If he has anything he calls/raises, or because your line is kinda funky he might just spaz out and shove with middle pair or a bluff because he doesn't know where he is at.
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Old 08-23-2015, 04:07 PM   #7
DeathCabForTootie
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Re: I Flopz z setz

Is BTN loose enough where we can include two pair combos? If so, I'm OK with a small 3 bet to 90.

However, Villains bet sizing looks like a draw or middling value hand that wants to get a free card and/or get to showdown cheaply. So, 3 betting is gonna let him off the hook. I am good with calling here and betting $100 on the turn.
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Old 08-23-2015, 04:38 PM   #8
venice10
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Re: I Flopz z setz

Easy flat, c/rai on the turn.
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Old 08-23-2015, 06:00 PM   #9
Triplerangemerge22
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Re: I Flopz z setz

clear flat. LEAD SMALL on turn $60. 76 from utg is only hand you fear....btn is drawing dead
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Old 08-23-2015, 06:15 PM   #10
kookiemonster
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Re: I Flopz z setz

Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel View Post
I'm fine calling otf, b/3b has become really strong. With middle set I'd c/r ott and expect TP to keep betting, with top set I don't know what V could have, if he has worse sets there's no turn card that'll prevent ai's. I'd lead the turn small to induce, if he has anything of value he'll raise, if he has some weird bluffs, folding and flatting will both seem out of the question to him, really a $30 bet is going to halt his bluff attempt? 76 that doesn't improve is like the only thing he might just call with.
Really good point.

Your line is interesting too. Personally I think a turn bet that size misses too much value as a standard line. Against an aggro opponent I like it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie View Post
Is BTN loose enough where we can include two pair combos?
Offsuit, prob. not.. Even if we swap the suits there are only a couple of combos of Q8s,85s. A fairly small percentage of his range, no?
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Old 08-23-2015, 08:48 PM   #11
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Re: I Flopz z setz

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Originally Posted by kookiemonster View Post
Offsuit, prob. not.. Even if we swap the suits there are only a couple of combos of Q8s,85s. A fairly small percentage of his range, no?
There are only a couple combos of Qx and worse sets. I mean, the guys continuing range after this flop bet is miniscule. I'd say there is probably a >80% chance that this loose villain, who views you as tag, is just trying to steal a pot on a dry board. He expects you to fold QJ right now, and if you don't he's probably done with the hand entirely.

So most of villain's range isn't putting another penny in the pot no matter what. Ax, or Kx that makes a higher pair might put some more money in, but not right now. So re-raising the flop only gets value from 88 and 55.

I'd lead something ridiculous on the turn. Like $40. Do your best to make it look like a timid blocking bet trying to set his own price for showdown. He'll feel like a sissy folding 77 or 99, and he may pick up a draw that causes him to fire another missile to get you off your hand. He may have an 8 that trips up, or something like that. He'll continue by raising in a lot of those circumstances, and if he does call, it just pumps up the pot a bit for your river value bet.

Probably sounds like a lot of mind games, but the way I see it, there's probably less than a 10% chance you're making another dime on this hand anyway. And when you do, it's against small number of hand combinations, most of which will require a little finesse.
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Old 08-23-2015, 09:36 PM   #12
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Spade Re: I Flopz z setz

Quote:
Originally Posted by kookiemonster View Post

Button is a rec. reg Knows hero as a solid TAG. $250ish

UTG doesn´t necessarily have much.
In game I might call sometimes; However, breaking it down here, I don't think a call works well because Vs just aren't deep enough.

When you b/3! Flop:
Both BTN and/or UTG could still stack off here with similar ranges (2p, sets, OESD) since BTN is shallow and UTG can likely make an expensive mistake AND just called 2b cold. You fold out gutters and pairs but you're making nothing from them on later streets anyway and can only lose to Improved gutters that you let see a turn.

When you b/call Flop:
BTN has initiative but is now aware you are strong (solid TAG) and he has zero FE and can play mistake free turns. He will just fold his air, pairs, unimproved OESD/gutters, when facing a bet from either of you OR just ck it back when ck-to. (Are you ever checking ott to induce at this depth anyway?)

UTG and BTN will also now start betting/calling improved gutters and OESD that got there and that's messy as well since you have to call and have no IO otr because they aren't deep enough (my initial point)
All the sets and 2p stuff also bets/calls but you would have certainly gotten all of that on the flop with a 3b anyway.... So the call allows both UTG and BTN to realize equity on their draws and fold when they don't.

If deeper, it leaves a lot more options - here, with a $164 pot and top set vs shallow BTN V that raised and likely weak/fishy UTG, me likey 3! $150-$180 to enhance mistakes and worst case, give you an easy/profitable bet/call ott if UTG straightens out.
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Old 08-23-2015, 10:20 PM   #13
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Re: I Flopz z setz

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpexDome View Post
There are only a couple combos of Qx and worse sets. I mean, the guys continuing range after this flop bet is miniscule. I'd say there is probably a >80% chance that this loose villain, who views you as tag, is just trying to steal a pot on a dry board. He expects you to fold QJ right now, and if you don't he's probably done with the hand entirely.

So most of villain's range isn't putting another penny in the pot no matter what. Ax, or Kx that makes a higher pair might put some more money in, but not right now. So re-raising the flop only gets value from 88 and 55.

I'd lead something ridiculous on the turn. Like $40. Do your best to make it look like a timid blocking bet trying to set his own price for showdown. He'll feel like a sissy folding 77 or 99, and he may pick up a draw that causes him to fire another missile to get you off your hand. He may have an 8 that trips up, or something like that. He'll continue by raising in a lot of those circumstances, and if he does call, it just pumps up the pot a bit for your river value bet.

Probably sounds like a lot of mind games, but the way I see it, there's probably less than a 10% chance you're making another dime on this hand anyway. And when you do, it's against small number of hand combinations, most of which will require a little finesse.
General agreement. Would also add that this is a low stress spot because, if we do have someone coolered here, he'll take care of getting his stack in. No need for us to be shoveling chips in.
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Old 08-24-2015, 04:55 PM   #14
eldiesel
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Re: I Flopz z setz

Quote:
Originally Posted by kookiemonster View Post
Personally I think a turn bet that size misses too much value as a standard line. Against an aggro opponent I like it.
It's not as much tight or aggro in general to me, once they raise the flop, at least for this hand, they've shown they'll be aggro enough to do what I want him to ott.
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Old 08-25-2015, 03:27 AM   #15
ibelieveyouoweme$80k
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Re: I Flopz z setz

Call. Don't want to give him a reason to fold. Give it a little tank, then call. Don't snap anything, of course.
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