Villain had been super tight. Premium hands only. Had raised to 10ish before this hand. Game is 1 2, 100 dollar spread limit

Hero has 860 stack. Villain 480. Rest of table is unusually bad even for 1 2, so villain had stood out and I have him pegged as someone who has ABC, 'good' fundamentals but someone I feel I can exploit the hell out of.

6 handed villain raises to 20 over limper, something he hadn't done, from mid pos. Hero has ten ten spade heart on button. Hero flats with intention of set mining. Limper folds, heads up.

Flop comes t93dd
Villain leads 50
Hero makes it 150
Villain takes an unusually long time and outwardly shows distress as if faced with a tough decision. Villain asks hero what he has, hero lies and says jacks. Villain calls soon after this.
Turn K spade, villain thinks briefly and leads into me for the spread of 100.

Action?

shove.

You were set mining & hit what you wanted. Where's the dilemma? Aside from the unlikely QJ, you should be ahead. If he's got KK you're toast, but set over set happens.

Villian has ~50% of his stack in, try to get it all in on the turn. He still may fold to a shove, so a re-raise to get him pot committed may be the best move.

Hero can't shove its 100 spread limit

Because it's spread limit, the pot stands at ~420, 100 to call, and the most he can bet on the river is 100.

Viewed this way: You should look at this as a pot of 520 and the call is 200, because if you call the turn you can never fold the river.

If you think you are good more than 28%, call down both streets.

Based on your description, we can assume QJ is not in his range. Eliminate 99 and 33. AA and KK and maybe AK. I reraise to 250 and call down the rest of the hand. Sucks if he has set over set, but he might have AA and you take down a big pot.

Do you think AK is in his range here? If so, then more betting is in order.

QQ is another possibility.

You need to be good arouond .243%....final pot will be 820 and you have to put 200 into that
200/820 = .243

I mean really vaillain is marked with a high pair....he got a chance to check call his AA down...your QJ got their so your range actually improved.....but he now decides to bet his AA QQ JJ so it cost him another $100 but does not do that on the flop when he gets a little protection from your draws...

Are you good 24% of the time...its got to be close...you can discount your $200 a little since if you spike your 1 outer you get the rest of his stack which is worth $15 or something so it really cost you 185 to find out if he's on tilt.

I doubt your good 1 out 4-5 times.

IF he's nitty its probably a fold...but close

Board: Ks Td 9d 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.394% 64.39% 00.00% 765 0.00 { TT }
Hand 1: 35.606% 35.61% 00.00% 423 0.00 { KK+ }


Board: Ks Td 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.901% 54.64% 00.26% 25966 123.00 { TT }
Hand 1: 45.099% 44.84% 00.26% 21308 123.00 { KK+, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, QJs }




Board: Ks Td 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.992% 51.67% 00.32% 19951 123.00 { TT }
Hand 1: 48.008% 47.69% 00.32% 18413 123.00 { KK+, QJs }


Figure out which range he has and go from there.

Turn can go from an auto-max raise to a call-down depending on how stationing he is with 1 pair (If he will fold AK/AA here if we raise, then I'd just call down (might raise/fold river though, unsure). Also depends if he'll fire two streets with his bluff hands (AJ/AQ of diamonds), I would also call down.

I guess call down is correct, but seems kind of gross.

Edit: River Ace would probably be the only card I would suggest folding on the river to.

what a ****ty structure, i´m glad i never played spread limit....
anyways, i guess he is never folding once he bet for the maximum, so raise the highest possible amount. if you are beat- just a cooler.
i find it quite unbelievable that so many posters actually consider a fold here...

Its rare but I think this was one of those rare situations where it might be correct. His range preflop is heavily weighted to qq kk and aa by his tightness and bet sizing (low levels players do this massive raise with qq+ play all the time here) and his lead pot tough call further indicates a big pp and weights him heavily toward it being the kings or slow playing 99 but i think the latter is rare. ak is all but eliminated from his range unless its diamond diamond.

Once the k drops I'm concerned but what kills it for me is he quickly leads out 100 max AFTER barely calling flop raise. Slightly comforting is if his range is qq kk or aa there are 10 outs for set over set, whichever big pair he has only has 2 of those outs. After the turn lead I can only put him on 99 (rare) kk (most likely) and AA. Maybe a tiny bit of AKdd. To be honest I'm not concerned about qj as played from this guy much, but its possible and has to be included.

The pot is actually at 330 I accidently raised to 145 on the flop not 150. So as someone said if I call flop I never fold turn bet so we are essentially calling 200 for a 730 dollar pot. Therefore we have to win this by the river only 27% of the time assuming he will bet again on any river. I think he might have Kk here more than 63% of the time based on several factors and a Q or A can still drop. Does he have KK more than 60%(think we have to reduce it a bit because his Aa range still has like 4% to hit river)? I think maybe.

I did end up calling and the worst card drops ace of diamond, also complete flushes (not that this is in his range much at all). He leads I have to call at this point

fold on ace rivers.

Esp on ace of diamonds.

What real hand can he have here that we beat? AdQd? AdJd? just bleh.

AA is just as likely as KK on the turn. Twice as likely, actually, if you count combos. Villain thinks he's just as good, also.

Never played spread limit, but it seems on first glance that it would prevent set-mining profitably.

A on the river. Can you PM me the results?