I'm playing in this 2/5 home game for the first time. Haven't played with any of the players before and they don't know me. Villain is one of newer players to the table. Said he was in vegas, chicago, and miami all summer for poker so he's some sort of wsopc grinder i assume and he knew Cauffman, who was there and really solid. Only read i have though.

habitual limper limps utg i raise AQcc to 25 in MP older guy reg calls in LP and villain calls in BB.

pot $102 - Flop A67hh checks to me and i decide to play it underrepped and check behind.(don't ask me why i chose this. I bet this flop prob 95% of time but just wanted to change it up and not do standard stuff since my image was snug and i had kinda just been feeling table out for the first few hours).

It checks behind, turn is A672hh

BB checks, utg bets 30, now i really don't want to let the other guys get a river card for such a good price, but i don't wanna bloat the pot up a whole bunch with 1 pair not knowing where anyone stands after my check on flop. So i decide to click button and raise to 80. Folds to BB who thinks and calls and utg folds.

River $260 A672K no flush on board. He bets 130 after a few seconds of deliberation. I have no idea whta he could have that beats me but i can't ever see him bluffing enough % of the time after my line against an unknown(me).


Yes i know, bet flop, bet flop, bet flop. As played, thoguths on villain's range?

Well for him to cold call the raise is very strange after checking it through twice. There's almost no way he can have a set or two pair. You would guess he would either lead the turn or c/r here with that. His most likely holdings to me would be either FD+SD or Pair+FD. I can't imagine Ax checking it through twice and then cold calling a bet and raise, then betting Ax for value on river. Would just be the wonkiest line in the world.

Getting 3:1 I think this is an easy call, but my guess is he has something like Kh6h. A hand like that is really the only way he can have more than 1 pair given the line.

super easy call and depending on the player i might even make a small raise. you could get called by Ax since your line is so weird.

~560eff stacks

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Raise on river expecting to get called by worse is a bit ambitious imo

question we need to ask ourselves is Does a raise get villian to call with lower A's? This would be the only scenario where raising is pofitable however you do not have much on reads to go on.

I would rather just call in this situation.

My thoughts on this is more on a higher theory type level.

Whenever we show weakness and under rep our hand then we can never fold when a villain subsequently shows strength later in the hand.

The reason is because our show of weakness has increased the probability of our villains showing strength in direct response to us showing weakness.

In this case, throw in the busted flush draw and there is simply no way you can fold AQ in this spot.

Or put another way? What was your objective in under repping your hand? What were you hoping to accomplish? One logical reason to under rep our hand is if our villains are aggro and will subsequently overvalue their hands in response to our under repping our hand. They may also increase their bluff frequency and widen their bluffing range because they since weakness.

Thus, when we under rep our hand, we can't fold when villains subsequently show strength.

DUCY?

So call, and kick in the nuts for taking random button clicking lines that leave you confused on what to do.

Its been my experience that the biggest reason for taking these sorts of FPS lines is due to nerves and not trusting your game and/or feeling like you are outclassed and thus have to get "tricky" to win.

Don't do that. Take a deep breath, relax and just play your game, trust your game, and it will take care of itself...

Except we raided the turn, this no longer having underrepped out hand. Obv your point about inducing is logical but saying you can never fold is pretty ludicrous.

As an aside, I know you know to bet flop but I think this is a pretty good example of misapplying a concept. This Check is much, much better in A HU pot to induce action but STINKS multiway.

^ sorry I should not have said "always" and "never" when making an argument

as far as our turn raise.

I submit that for "some" villains, once we show any weakness they can't help but think of us as weak no matter what we do later on in a hand.

granted I have no idea if villain is one of those villains.

Anyways, I guess my post as relates to this thread can be summed up as: when we muddy the waters with FPS it becomes extremely difficult to read our villains. Thus, we have to significantly widen the error bars as far as our confidence intervals when trying to read our villains and that widening will result in us having to call more often...

That is mathematically incorrect. The size of our possible error doesn't change the maths. His range widening does, but not our mistakes.

In this case against an unknown I'd still range him to hands that beat 1 pair given action throughout the hand.

Busted flush that hit 2 pair on the river sounds about right. I think both call and fold are justified here.

Edit: Mathematically it seems like a call, experientially it seems like a fold

Sounds like a busted flush draw or weaker ace enough to easily call with 3:1. I can't see 2p or a set unless he rivered 2p.

Let me know which cards where hearts and ill stove it

I don't hate the way you played the hand. I think the river is close between call and fold. He probably has A2, A6, or A7 or a busted flush draw. Problem is I think the 2 pairs way outnumber the busted flush draws.

Flopping 2p then checking flop and turn on this board is super bad. V might be that terrible though. Calling pre OOP with anything that made 2p is bad except AK but if he has AK he played it really bad post. V's line is terrible if he holds anything that beats you especially if the A is a heart. I actually think that is important info to properly analyze this hand. If the A is a non heart then he could easily have AhJh-Ah8h

I think bluffing a busted draw is the only play that really makes sense with his line. It would just be so bad to call OOP with anything that hit 2 pair. But again, he could just be really bad.

no clue but i would call

The 67 were the hearts which is why ibcouodnt put him on a K6s type hand

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lol serious?

+ infinity. Oh and call OP

thanks for expressing your thoughts in a well thought out post. Ill reply when i get a chance

also thanks everyone else.

kinda feel like betting just turns my hand face up (lol?) so i decided to be a bit deceptive but to cold call a raise and donk turn just drastically reduces his bluffing range imo.

as one poster said ,"odds say call, experience says fold". with no history i just cna't see villain show up with a worse hand

Ok so since the A is a non heart there are a lot more TP+FD hands that may call you raise ott. I've also included hands that are unlikely like 66-77 that if he had he severely misplayed. I wanted to get a conservative equity number.


PokerCruncher-iPhone V.6.2.2

(Equity, Win, Tie)
Player 1: 66.9% 63.9% 6.06% [AcQc]
Player 2: 33.1% 30.0% 6.06% {KK-66, Ah8h+, Ah5h-Ah2h, 9h8h, 7s6s, 7c6c, 7d6d, A9o+, 76o}

Board: [As 6h 7h 2c Kd]
Deal To: River
Dead Cards: {}

Monte Carlo Simulation: 250000 trials

So you are def way ahead of his range.

I think the A being a non-heart pushes it more towards a fold than a call. Now there are a lot of Ahxh hands that have showdown value and are not betting the river.

Your range seems a bit off to me too. Does KK-66 mean it includes 88 thru QQ? If so, I think those should be taken out. The only Ace high flush draws that should be included are AhKh and Ah2h, imho (and I think AhKh usually bets the turn). A9o to AJo should be taken out as well. I can see the possibility of AQ being played this way by BB.

I missed the info in the OP that BB might be a grinder. In that case, I'm assigning BB a tigher preflop range. I'd estimate his range on the river to be roughly 10 value combos (a couple sets, and mostly 2 pairs), and 5 bluff combos (mostly missed flush draws with an inside or open ended straight draws). So it looks like your getting the odds to call.

tl;dr - I'd call, but it's close.

I purposefully assigned a very wide range. But I def this the are more Axhh combos than AK and A2. At least the V 's I'm used to will call down with that. Granted 88-KK would be stupid. But I don't see how any value hands make sense with V's line. I put that together in a rush though. Agree there a too many pp's in there but I would leave in the additional Axhh hands